Will the Revel Make it a Year as a Non-Smoking Casino?

I don't have numbers to support it, but I believe:
the percentage of smokers in gamblers is much higher than general public

There was a study done in Nevada in 2006 and I posted link to the study earlier in this thread. The study found that, for Nevada, where smoking is allowed everywhere in Casinos, the frequency of smokers mirrorred the general public. Their methodology was that they would walk through an entire casino (8 strip casinos were in the study) and do a count of those currently smoking, and multiply by 3, with the assumption that a casino cigarette smoker would smoke 2x an hour and that each cigarette lasts 10 minutes each. Personally, I think that's wrong - I think it's more like a cigarette lasts about 7 minutes and the frequency might be once an hour. This key assumption of multiplying the incidence x 3 I think is too conservative, in my opinion. However, they also surveyed other casinos in Nevada, including Nevada and "locals casinos" and found no key differences.

This goes contrary to other studies which state that problems gamblers (those in Gambler's Anonymous) are much more likely to have other addictions, including alcohol, tobacco, and drugs. About 3-5% of all gamblers are "heavy" or "problem" gamblers with an incidence rate of over 50%. Therefore, I would purport that the incidence of smoking goes up with with the severity of the gambler's addiction to gambling. And therefore, the smoking rate at a casino is slightly higher than the general population - perhaps at about 30%.

Even still, for the Revel, this means that because they are planning to open the casino as a non-smoking casino only, they will lose the problem gambler population who smoke. This problem gambling represents a substantial part of revenue - between 30 - 52%. The "problem gambler" is a valuable part of the casino's business plan.

I still think it makes it at least a year, but when the casino floor managers and hosts realize that it's losing whales to the Borgata and Caesars and see their comparative results start to fade, they will make their high roller suite smoking.

Wiz Quote " I think the talking heads around the conference room table will blame the no-smoking rule, when the culprit will really be competition from neighboring states. "

I know two owners personally in Blackhawk who blamed the closing of their casino on the $5 maximum bet. Truth is one got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and the other thought all customers were suckers and treated them that way.

Quote: boymimbo

AC Games as of Februrary 29, 2012 -- source - Monthly Revenue report: Here

Game	ACH	Ballys	Borgata	Caesars	Nugget	Harrahs	Resorts	Showboat	Trop	Plaza	Taj
Blackjack	35	65	78	59	22	75	40	41	54	36	68
Craps	5	8	14	14	4	9	5	5	9	3	12
Roulette	7	20	20	17	7	12	8	9	15	10	14
Big Six	1	2	1	1	0	1	1	1	1		1
Baccarat	0	1	1	4	0	0	0
Mini Bac	18	15	16	9	6	6	16	9	10	8	13
Sic Bo	1	1	1	1							1
Pai Gow Poker	2	5	6	6	1	3	4	3	2	2	2
Pai Gow (Tiles)	4	2	2	5		1	3	2	2	2	2
Keno						4					2
Carribbean Stud		2	4	2	1	1		1	1		2
Let it Ride	2	4	5	2	2	4	2	2	2	2	2
Three Card	4	15	15	11	4	14	4	9	8	2	6
Casino War			2
Spanish 21	2	8	5	5	1	1	3	2	4	2	4
Double Attack BJ				1		1	1	1	1		1
Four Card	2	5	4	4	1	2	1	1	2	1	2
Texas Hold Em Bonus		2	4	2		1	1		2	1	2
Flop Poker	1		4		1	3		1
Ultimate Texas		2		1	1		1	1
Asia Poker		2	2	2
Mississippi Stud				1	2	1
Poker Room	8	26	81	32	20	40	0	24	27		54
Total	92	185	265	179	73	179	90	112	140	69	188

EZ Pai Gow licensed March 12, 2012 (way to go Pai Gow Dan!)

What should be noted is that these figures are what each casino is AUTHORIZED to have.

Ballys is AUTHORIZED to have 5 Pai Gow Poker tables.

The most I have seen is ONE!!!!

Quote: FatGeezus

What should be noted is that these figures are what each casino is AUTHORIZED to have. Ballys is AUTHORIZED to have 5 Pai Gow Poker tables.The most I have seen is ONE!!!!

What strikes me is how relatively low the per table revenue is in NJ compared to PA. While NJ has 312 poker tables and 1260 table games, PA has 218 poker tables and 733 table games (+ 27 electronic tables). Yet PA has almost caught up with NJ in table game revenue.

Quote: Wizard

Indeed. I think even Paco would be proud of that table.

I try not to simply reproduce data, but to draw some kind of conclusion. This table tells me that the drop in gaming revenue on the strip last two years, and has been recovering slowly (mostly by Baccarat).

The rest of Nevada has made only a microscopic recovery i gaming. But it is still near record lows.

Comment	Month	State	Strip $billions	Rest of NV
Latest reported	Jan-2012	$10.86	$6.21	$4.65
Low for off-strip	Sep-2011	$10.55	$5.94	$4.61
Low for the state	Jul-2010	$10.28	$5.62	$4.66
Low for the strip	Oct-2009	$10.38	$5.49	$4.90
Peak of market	Oct-2007	$12.97	$6.95	$6.03
Historic	Oct-2004	$10.38	$5.24	$5.14

I contrast the NJ crash has been overwhelming. Revenue started to drop after December 2006 when the first Philadelphia racinos opend, The crash has been ongoing, relenteless and sustained. It doesn't even measure up to "off-strip" Nevada which is at equilibrium .

I don't think Revel (smoking or non-smoking will matter much to the big picture.

Actually as I look at the table count, that is OBVIOUSLY off... there is a 0% chance that ACH has the most Mini-Bacc tables!!! And I've only seen Sic Bo at Bally's and Borgata. I know somebody commented that those are the amount they are ALLOWED to have, but as Paco mentioned, it doesn't really give as much insight into what the trends are.

I wasn't trying to tell trends. The request was for the number of tables, particularly for Pai Gow Poker and Tiles. So screw off everyone.

I've given plenty of trending evidence in my other posts. There is no data that shows the number of OPEN tables by casino. Even Las Vegas data doesn't show that.

As for Paco's analysis, AC has been indeed sinking every year since 2007. Every casino has had a negative year over growth in revenue, with the following six expeptions since the beginning of 2008

Tropicana Q4 2010 (3.28%)
Taj Majal Q3 2009 (0.75%)
Borgata Q3 2008 (4.27%)
Harrahs Q3 2008 (13.28%)
Borgata Q2 2008 (1.47%)
Harrahs Q2 2008 (15.68%)
Harrahs Q1 2008 (4.87%)
Plaza Q1 2008 (2.92%)

The last period of overall growth for AC was 1.84% in 2006 Q4. Since then, AC wide, operating revenue has fallen from 418,780,000 in Q3 2006 to 182,122,000 in Q3 2011. Of course Q3 2011 had Irene but still a drop of 56.5%. During the same time, table and slot revenue has fallen from 1,405 million to 933.8 million, a drop of 33.5%.

Yet the casinos manage to stay open.

Quote: Tiltpoul

Paco, any breakdown of table games in AC like LV? I'd be curious to know how important Tiles, Baccarat and PGP are to the mix.

Quote: boymimbo

I wasn't trying to tell trends. The request was for the number of tables, particularly for Pai Gow Poker and Tiles. So screw off everyone.

While I apologize for offending, your choice words as to what we should all do is clear!!!

My question, as you can see, was two-fold. First, how many tables does each casino HAVE??? And I'm telling you, I've been to ACH, and they do not have 18 mini-bacc tables. I'm not doubting that you made the numbers up, but there's simply no way they have that many tables in that casino, open or close.

Second, I wanted to know how important it was to the mix, meaning, is there a way to figure out how much revenue is generated by those games vs all the other games. Obviously, you feel we were attacking your work. Sometimes, there is more context than the message but perhaps other posters should be more careful before telling others to "screw off"

Quote: Tiltpoul

Actually as I look at the table count, that is OBVIOUSLY off... there is a 0% chance that ACH has the most Mini-Bacc tables!!! And I've only seen Sic Bo at Bally's and Borgata. I know somebody commented that those are the amount they are ALLOWED to have, but as Paco mentioned, it doesn't really give as much insight into what the trends are.

The trends are down, down, down. The amount of tables open vary by day of week and time of day. Even on a weekend they have plenty of closed tables in AC. There are times when minimums are high and tables are empty. You would think they could lower the minimum and get more players and open more tables, but staffing does not allow.
If you have not been to AC in years, you would be shocked at how empty it is during the week. The only thing I have seen close to it is Reno during the week, and even that seems busier based on size. Remember AC casinos are (were before closing areas off with walls) so much bigger than even LV Strip casinos.

Quote: boymimbo

Yet the casinos manage to stay open.

I have thought about that question a lot over the years. Why do casinos stay open even given catastrophic loss in business? Even in Vegas if a casino is leveled, it often sits for decades as an empty lot still zoned for gaming, awaiting a possible gaming future which doesn't seem like it will ever come. There have been only a handful of cases where a condominium or some other business was built on the site. The Castaways site at the end of Fremont street is maintained as a potential casino site, even though I can't imagine someone shelling out millions to build a hotel casino on Boulder Strip.

I must conclude that once a property has been zoned for gaming, that the owners believe even the slight chance that it can be used for that again, seems to trump any other possible use for the site.

Quote: Boz

If you have not been to AC in years, you would be shocked at how empty it is during the week. The only thing I have seen close to it is Reno during the week, and even that seems busier based on size. Remember AC casinos are (were before closing areas off with walls) so much bigger than even LV Strip casinos.

I was in AC in December. ACH (or whatever it's called now) is CLEARLY the smallest casino of all of them. Its gaming space is probably the size of Bally's in Las Vegas, maybe a bit smaller. I know the weekdays are quite slow; I've been there on a weekday and it's very easy to find a table at lower minimums. I believe I played craps at ACH for $3 mins. But my estimate, including high limit, is that ACH only has about 50 tables. Whether they have more or not approved is a different story.

Getting back to the thread though, if the Asian population is important to a casino (which in AC it HAS to be given the mix of games), how much of a casino's revenue comes from the big 3 (Bacc, Tiles and PGP). If this is the case, then Revel, without Tiles and no smoking allowed, could be losing HUGE revenue. This could cause them to lift the smoking ban MUCH EARLIER than a year.

If Revel thinks that the young, hip crowd is going to gamble on a Tuesday morning at 10am, I think there will be a rude awakening... unless of course they only open the casino on weekends!

The Asian population I don't think is much of a factor in AC.

For AC in February 2012, Borgata had a drop of $285,980 for Bacarrat and 13,074,964 for mini-bacarrat. Its 6 authorized Pai Gow Poker table pulled in 1,603,780 in drop and its two tiles table pulled in 980,437 in drop. For all four games, it composed about 14.2% of total table drop. That's about Total win from all four games was $1,935,630 or 11.2% of total table wins.

Caesars numbers are similar 17% of drop and net win.

Proportions are lower in the summer actually as the tourist population in summer is disproportionately non-asian. So, the tile audience is pretty low in AC and I don't think it will detract much from Revel's revenue picture.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Well, I DO have the itch, although it's tempered by a desire to avoid the opening day madness.

But it's up to the wife. She has the itch too...

The wife has a reservation for Friday, Saturday and Sunday at Showboat. So, unless she suddenly wakes up and decides we can't afford it, I'm heading down. Of course, my plan would be to go down Sunday morning by bus and ride home with her...

I used to do computer graphics as part of my job. Whenever I was asked to create a chart, I asked the customer "What do you want these numbers to show?" This is the problem with the chart. It shows the number of games/slots authorized but it doesn't tell the number of games/slots in use.

If you are authorized to have 5 PGP tables and only have 1 table on the floor you aren't seeing the TRUE picture.

If the casino won $5m in PGP, I could show that the casino won $5m at their 1 table or I could show that they averaged $1m for all their PGP tables.

Both statements are true.

Again the chart doesn't tell the real story.

Quote: boymimbo

So screw off everyone.

I'm going to have to give you three days for that one. Consider it a cooling off period. Aside from that outburst, I still consider you an asset to the forum.

That seems a little harsh compared to what others have gotten away with lately.

Quote: 1BB

That seems a little harsh compared to what others have gotten away with lately.

I don't claim that the hand of justice is always fair on this site. For one thing, I only read about 5% to 10% of the posts. Your odds of being suspended for a marginal rule violation are greater on a thread that I obviously read.

Quote: Wizard

I have a $100 bet with Bob Dancer that the Revel will go at least a year with an entirely non-smoking casino. Bob doesn't think they will make it that long.

On the 3/22 radio show, the conditions changed. You said by the end of 2013, Revel will still not be more than 50% smoking. What gives? Why the change?


Also, you both pronounced it with emphasis on the second syllable. I'm fairly certain that the emphasis is on the first syllable, so it rhymes with level. For what it's worth, on one of the web pages, they refer to the casino as if "Revelry" was the name of the floor that it's on.

Of course, I'll verify that when I visit....


On a side note, it pisses me off that Revel's web site still doesn't have a property map.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

On a side note, it pisses me off that Revel's web site still doesn't have a property map.

Which AC casinos DO have a property map? i think Borgata does but any others?

Quote: WongBo

Which AC casinos DO have a property map? i think Borgata does but any others?

Harrah's does, presented as a smoking/non-smoking guide to the casino floor.

I searched but could not find any confirmation of this...

Rumor has it that two Revel security guards were recently fired because they were caught smoking on the property.

Quote: SanchoPanza

Quote: WongBo

Which AC casinos DO have a property map? i think Borgata does but any others?

Harrah's does, presented as a smoking/non-smoking guide to the casino floor.

In addition, Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun does. Of course, those are both huge monstrosities and maps are needed. Revel is also a huge monstrosity.

Sands PA also has their property map online, and it's basically just a rectangular room. I know I've seen others for other eastern casinos.....

Revel might be a hugh monstronstity but its casino floor is only 105K square feet at opening, about the size of Wynn.

I just returned from Atlantic City where I was one of the first to enter the Revel yesterday morning. I spent several hours there yesterday and this morning getting the lay of the land. From what I saw and heard, the nonsmoking policy is a huge hit however we all know money talks.

Quote: 1BB

I just returned from Atlantic City where I was one of the first to enter the Revel yesterday morning. I spent several hours there yesterday and this morning getting the lay of the land. From what I saw and heard, the nonsmoking policy is a huge hit however we all know money talks.

Blog post review or new forum review topic!! Please!!

I'm anxious to hear what Revel is like.

Quote: Tiltpoul

Blog post review or new forum review topic!! Please!!

I'm anxious to hear what Revel is like.

+1. I won't get there til early May, and I want to start dreaming now...

Quote: DJTeddyBear

On the 3/22 radio show, the conditions changed. You said by the end of 2013, Revel will still not be more than 50% smoking. What gives? Why the change?

We had a disagreement about what it means to be a "non-smoking casino." Bob thought just one slot machine in a designated smoking room, like at the LV airport, would no longer make it "non-smoking" and cause him to win the bet. I said I thought it should mean "majority" non-smoking. To get that concession I had to agree to extend the term to 12/31/13. I assume we emphasized "percent," because he had a fair bit of negotiating on the terms.

Wiz -

Understood.

Based upon the impressions I got from my visit, I'd say the non-smoking thing is a hit. However, you may have to revise the bet again. What would happen if the casino is over 50% smoking, but the rest of the resort is entirely, or at least primarily, non-smoking?

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My full review of Revel is coming in a couple days. Those of you who know me, know that it's gonna be a LONG post. Complete with photos. That takes time.