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Eric721
Eric721
Joined: Jul 15, 2015
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July 17th, 2015 at 8:14:24 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

If you don't like it, you don't have to play that way. What feels "trivial and incidental" to you may be felt by another to be the price of admission for the opportunity to win on a point of 4 with full odds.



I can accept that.

Quote:

What do you personally find more exciting:
a) Hitting a point of 4 with a $50 flat bet and no odds, or
b) Hitting a point of 4 with a $10 flat bet and $30 odds?

If you find (a) more exciting, I submit you are in the vast, vast minority.



Obviously (b) pays better, so of course it would be the more exciting bet, assuming it hits (33% chance)

But what do you personally find more exciting?:
a) Hitting two come-out winners in a row with a $50 flat bet
b) Hitting two come-out winners in a row with a $10 flat bet

I would like to point out that your entire question is predicated on the unspoken assumption that the Pass Line is generally determined after it has been established. Remember that one of my main thrusts is that this is not the case; the come-out portion of the point is much more important than most people give it credit for. 45.1% of your winners come without odds ever being in the picture.

It is much easier to scale the proper wager amount against your bankroll when you do not take odds, because you only get to take odds two thirds of the time, making your wagers more variable and difficult to gauge.

Here's the thing. The come-out roll is often overlooked by players who dismiss it as the occasional bump in the road before they get to their real bets, which are odds. But the come-out is resolved immediately on a 2,3,7,11, and 12. There are 12 ways you can roll those numbers. Since there are only 36 possible rolls, you get 12 of 36 points resolved immediately. That reduces to 1 in 3. So fully one third of all Pass Line bets are resolved without odds ever being allowed. (The Don't has slight variation.) That's a huge percentage of points.

Now look at the line bets in respect to the come-out. The Pass Line wins you 8 out of 12 points, or 2 in 3. The Don't wins you 3 out of 11 points. So on the come-out, you want as much money as possible on the Pass Line and as little as possible on the Don't.

Now look at the established points, which happen the other 24 out of 36 trials. Using my technique of multiplying all rolls by 55 to keep the math in integers, you get 1320 possible points. Skip the remainder of this paragraph if you want to just trust me on the math. 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8 have a 3:4:5 relationship to each other. (Which explains the 3-4-5 odds, BTW.) So of the 1320 points, 330 are 4/10, 440 are 5/9, and 550 are 6/8. You win a third of the 4/10s, which is 110, two fifths of the 5/9s, which is 176, and five elevenths of the 6/8s, which is 250. That's 110+176+250=536 winners out of 1320 possibilities. 536 / 1320 = 40.6%.

For the Pass Line only, you have 66.7% chance to win on the come-out, and a 40.6% to win an established point. Odds players are maximizing the money at risk in a 40.6% proposition while minimizing the money at risk in the 66.7% proposition. To me, that's silly. The odds do pay better than 1:1, but you're not playing craps to earn a living. You're playing to have fun. You have fun by winning bets.

It is not smarter to increase your number of losses, especially considering that the payouts aren't even as good as the crappy Place Bet payouts. The whole reason that the double odds bet is "better" than a Place Bet -- despite a worse payout -- is because of the huge advantage of the come-out roll. Those who do not play odds at all are putting much more money in the player-friendly scenario of the come-out roll, which I contend is the smarter play.

I did not understand this until I compared the actual numbers, which are in this post but not next to each other, as it is a rather unusual comparison. Of the 976 ways to win the Pass Line, 440 are won on the come-out, while 536 are won on established points. When you divide the 440 come-out wins by the 976 possible wins, you come to the frankly counter-intuitive realization that 45.1% of all Pass Line winners are won on the come-out roll. Before you read this post, I bet most people assumed (as I did) that the come-out probably only contributed about 20%-30% of all Pass Line winners, if you even wondered about it at all.

So that's why most people believe odds are a great bet; they don't realize that for the most part, the Pass Line bet is really won on the come-out, and established points aren't much more than window dressing tacked onto the real bet. The casino knows this all too well. That's why they offer "free odds."

One final attempt: Free odds in craps serve the same purpose as a free odds wager in blackjack that allowed you to triple your bet if the dealer showed a face card. Would you always triple your bet when the dealer showed a face card, even if the extra money paid double (or whatever)?
HornHighYo11
HornHighYo11
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July 17th, 2015 at 9:47:24 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Double odds tables (from knowledge in my head)

* Jerry's Nugget
* California Club
* Fremont Casino
* South Point
* Circus Circus

Double odds per internet errors here: (Last update: Jan 8, 2015 reported per this snapshot)

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/craps-survey



That wrong info might have even factored into a decision at the Wynn. Who knows?



I dont get it. why are we all getting up in Mr. Wynns face when the Craps survey shows ALL these casinos have 2x odds since January???? Someone noticed this on a July visit to the Wynn and I have been assuming from the pages of posts that it was a independent issue. Holy Cow. Im not a happy camper.
NokTang
NokTang
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:00:00 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

$50 trillion is exactly as useful as $1 billion to virtually everybody.

But you appear to suggest that Jim should not play $5 + $20 odds and should bet $25 flat instead. That's also poor advice.



Hello from South East Asia....When I read your comment above(the first one) for some reason I thought about the recent escape by the Mexican Cartel drug lord. He was reported to have at least access to "$1 Billion" USD. Certainly it helped him escape and remain at large, drinking beer, eating tacos, and with all the fine women he wants? I'm quite sure $1 Billion was enough. We continue to wonder over here anyhow, how the bankers and lawyers escape all implications of involvement in said cartel. I mean what are they doing with all the money? We know what Steve Wynn is doing with his...buying artwork.

Regarding your second point, it made me recall the many games played outside the casino's where you rarely can bet odds at all, and the DP wins on 12. The kind men banking said games often won money. (six and eight were sometimes, but not always offered, at even money) So, point being, there is a lot of craps played without the ability to take odds.
NokTang
NokTang
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:06:40 PM permalink
Quote: HornHighYo11


I dont get it. why are we all getting up in Mr. Wynns face when the Craps survey shows ALL these casinos have 2x odds since January???? Someone noticed this on a July visit to the Wynn and I have been assuming from the pages of posts that it was a independent issue. Holy Cow. Im not a happy camper.



The poster indicated the table was wrong information, not up to date. He/She suggested perhaps the Wynn management simply looked at this one table and made their decision based upon it. He was being silly of course, some much needed humor in this very important discussion.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:11:26 PM permalink
Quote: HornHighYo11

Quote: Ahigh

Double odds tables (from knowledge in my head)

* Jerry's Nugget
* California Club
* Fremont Casino
* South Point
* Circus Circus

Double odds per internet errors here: (Last update: Jan 8, 2015 reported per this snapshot)

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/craps-survey



That wrong info might have even factored into a decision at the Wynn. Who knows?



I dont get it. why are we all getting up in Mr. Wynns face when the Craps survey shows ALL these casinos have 2x odds since January???? Someone noticed this on a July visit to the Wynn and I have been assuming from the pages of posts that it was a independent issue. Holy Cow. Im not a happy camper.



Because all of those yellow-highlighted reports of double odds are wrong. Each of those should read 345x on this web page, but they are wrong.

In the real world they have all been 345x for at least the last five years with the exception of Riv which went to 345x to 1000x and back and I believe is now history.
NokTang
NokTang
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh


In the real world they have all been 345x for at least the last five years with the exception of Riv which went to 345x to 1000x and back and I believe is now history.



Good morning. Did the Rivera get much action on the 1000X table(s)? What was the min. line bet to take advantage of this offer? Many thanks. Obviously they lost money on said offer as I think the building imploded?

BTW, there was a time in the past, call it about 15 years ago, when Binions offered 100X odds on a $1.usd line wager.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Regarding your second point, it made me recall the many games played outside the casino's where you rarely can bet odds at all, and the DP wins on 12. The kind men banking said games often won money. (six and eight were sometimes, but not always offered, at even money) So, point being, there is a lot of craps played without the ability to take odds.

Sure, I was obviously talking about the casino game. If you're playing street craps the last thing you're going to be worried about is your bankroll variance.

Nathan Detroit: "But ... these dice don't have any spots on them! They're blank!"
Big Jule: "I had the spots taken off for luck. But I remember where the spots formerly were."
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
NokTang
NokTang
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:33:15 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Sure, I was obviously talking about the casino game. If you're playing street craps the last thing you're going to be worried about is your bankroll variance.



They were also more serious about at least one die hitting the back wall. If neither hit the wall, no roll. Period. Yes, you could almost always borrow money at these games and bankroll wasn't an issue until you had to write a check or settle up. I personally never defaulted but I'll be honest and truthful, I've seen a guy with two broken ankles and it wasn't a motorcycle accident. It will wake you up quickly.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 17th, 2015 at 10:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: Eric721

I would like to point out that your entire question is predicated on the unspoken assumption that the Pass Line is generally determined after it has been established. Remember that one of my main thrusts is that this is not the case; the come-out portion of the point is much more important than most people give it credit for. 45.1% of your winners come without odds ever being in the picture.


The Pass Line *is* generally determined after a point has been established. 2/3 of the time, in fact.

And while it is true that 45.1% of the times you win occur on the come-out, it is not true that 45.1% of your *money* is made on the comeout once you start betting odds. That's the whole point. Betting Strip-standard 3/4/5x odds, only 10.5% of the money won comes from the comeout roll. 89.5% of the money you make is from making points.

Quote:

It is much easier to scale the proper wager amount against your bankroll when you do not take odds, because you only get to take odds two thirds of the time, making your wagers more variable and difficult to gauge.

Not really. That just comes from experience at the table. If you're worried about overbetting, bet the minimum and then raise your bets as you get a feel for the swings. Taking $10+2x odds means you're losing either $10 or $30 and winning either $10, $34, $40, or $50. If your bankroll is only $200 and you don't want to lose $30 at a time, you're overbetting.

Quote:

It is not smarter to increase your number of losses, especially considering that the payouts aren't even as good as the crappy Place Bet payouts. The whole reason that the double odds bet is "better" than a Place Bet -- despite a worse payout -- is because of the huge advantage of the come-out roll. Those who do not play odds at all are putting much more money in the player-friendly scenario of the come-out roll, which I contend is the smarter play.

I'm not sure why you think a true odds payout is worse than a short payout (Place bets) for the same winning and losing scenarios, but if your real complaint is that taking odds is a longshot with a low probability of winning (which it is), why not bet don't and lay the odds instead? You'll win far more than 50% of the established points there, you just need to survive the come-out roll. Why not do that?

Also, I get the sense that you're uncomfortable making more than one bet at a time. If you have the bankroll for it, you should try making a few come bets too. Once you start making come bets the variance shrinks quite dramatically. I think you may prefer the 3-point Molly, a.k.a. Ponzer (pass + 2 comes w/ odds) over a single larger pass bet with no odds. If your goal is to expose your money to a higher probability of winning something (albeit not the total wager), that's far more effective than the single bet win or lose. If you really want to decrease your variance, just make pass bets with continuous come bets, no odds. And if you *really* want to decrease your variance, play an unequal doey-don't and then use odds to hedge.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Eric721
Eric721
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July 18th, 2015 at 12:01:34 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

The Pass Line *is* generally determined after a point has been established. 2/3 of the time, in fact.

And while it is true that 45.1% of the times you win occur on the come-out, it is not true that 45.1% of your *money* is made on the comeout once you start betting odds. That's the whole point. Betting Strip-standard 3/4/5x odds, only 10.5% of the money won comes from the comeout roll. 89.5% of the money you make is from making points.



This is completely dependent on how you're betting.

Quote:

I'm not sure why you think a true odds payout is worse than a short payout (Place bets) for the same winning and losing scenarios[...]



At most strip properties (3-4-5x odds) the difference is negligible (actually, you get paid $1 more when placing the 4 or 10). But consider double odds:

6/8 ($10 on the line, $20 behind it.)
Pass: $30 bet pays $34
Place: $30 bet pays $35 <== $1 better

5/9 ($5 on the line, $10 behind it.)
Pass: $15 bet pays $20
Place: $15 bet pays $21 <== $1 better

4/10 ($5 on the line, $10 behind it.)
Pass: $15 bet pays $25
Place: $15 bet pays $27 <== $2 better

Here we see that place bets pay better than line bets. So why would one ever play line bets? Because the come-out role is what defines the line bets. IMO, playing odds behind the line is really just demoting your excellent line bet into a crappy place bet, and even worse, won't even pay as well as a true place bet.

In fairness, if your pass line bet gets established, it has already been demoted into a crappy bet, so in that sense it isn't the odds bet that screws you, it's the mere fact that you didn't get a decision on the come-out. And with 3-4-5x odds, you do generally get the same payout as place bets.

Quote:

... but if your real complaint is that taking odds is a longshot with a low probability of winning (which it is), why not bet don't and lay the odds instead? You'll win far more than 50% of the established points there, you just need to survive the come-out roll. Why not do that?



Why not? Good question. Is it because the large chip layout to cover it increases your variance so blatantly that most gamblers instinctively realize that it will burn through their money too quickly? (That's a trick question; the darkside odds increase your variance by the exact same amount as the lightside. The appearance of increased variance is quite blatant on the darkside, however.) I say that is exactly the reason. The lightside odds have the exact same effect, only it is slightly less exaggerated. This small difference is enough to push people from the "best bet on the table" attitude when considering the Pass into "way too much variance to be a smart bet" attitude when considering the Don't. I find that interesting.

Quote:

Also, I get the sense that you're uncomfortable making more than one bet at a time. If you have the bankroll for it, you should try making a few come bets too. Once you start making come bets the variance shrinks quite dramatically. I think you may prefer the 3-point Molly, a.k.a. Ponzer (pass + 2 comes w/ odds) over a single larger pass bet with no odds. If your goal is to expose your money to a higher probability of winning something (albeit not the total wager), that's far more effective than the single bet win or lose. If you really want to decrease your variance, just make pass bets with continuous come bets, no odds. And if you *really* want to decrease your variance, play an unequal doey-don't and then use odds to hedge.



I'm not uncomfortable making more than one bet at a time. I often DO make come bets (such as 3 additional $10 come bets rather than $30 odds).

Regarding the Doey-Don't, the dreariness really gets driven home when you play this way, IMO. Bet 1 unit on the pass and 1 unit on the Don't, then take double odds on the pass line. The only thing that hurts you is a Bar 12 on the come-out, which loses the Pass but doesn't pay the Don't. That's exactly 1 unit (half the 2-unit bet) down every 36 rolls, but mathematically it's not technically a 2.78% (1/36) house advantage. Instead it's -1 unit every 71 units bet, (1/71 = 1.408%) which is unsurprisingly the exact average of the Pass and Don't lines combined. It's not unusual to play for a while and never see a 12, though, but the times I played this strategy I was bored out of my skull. It's not a particularly bad strategy, but it is boring as all get-out.

All in all, I would never recommend a single pass line with max odds bet to anybody except a complete novice at the game. (The reason being that I can't explain the whole game to somebody, and I could never be taken to task for recommending what is widely considered to be the "smartest" bet.) Hehe. :)

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