beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 19th, 2018 at 8:20:22 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

So I have to get a straight before I make any money? no.



Edit: couple inaccuracies in my understanding of the game corrected later in the thread. Leaving this intact anyway. -BBB

No. Dealer always qualifies. You're head-to-head. HE is coming from the ante push on a high-card hand win, where a high-card hand lose will be 2 or more unitsost to the house. 45% of hands you will have a high card, so that's a sizable number of them, but in 5 card stud, it's sizable for the dealer, too. About 1 in 5 hands you will be hi card vs hi card, expected to lose .5 of those, so 10% against you before odds.

Pair another 42%, 2pr and 3oak make ~99% of hands where you won't make more than 1:1. The other 1% is where the rest of the ante push -ev goes, to pay odds. But it's worth noting the odds pay is on the Play, so a good starting hand, you can bet up and get multiples of your ante paid at odds, check down your bad hands for less money.

Seems like it would be playable. The HE is probably a bit too high, though, because the 6 deck will get more hands out than most poker games. I would guess 40-42 HPH. Blackjack pay (3:2) on 3oak would fix it, I think. Could be too much of an over-correction.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Jul 3, 2018
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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June 19th, 2018 at 9:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The other 1% is where the rest of the ante push -ev goes, to pay odds.



The push is not on the ante bet, it is on the Play Bet, which is 2x the ante.

The strategy for this game is not immediately obvious. When dealer's 2-card hand is a pair or A-high and higher than player's 3-card hand (ignoring flushes and straights) then I think player folds. But there is probably a lot of fine structure in the Play/Fold decision depending upon the details of the dealer and player hands.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 20, 2018
UKMark
UKMark
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June 20th, 2018 at 2:54:10 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Have you done any vulnerability testing? At a glance it seems like it would be susceptible to a suit count.



Due to the possible combinations and variations I don't believe the game has the same sort of vulnerability as Blackjack to any counting. With Blackjack (and my knowledge of counting) you are basically tracking the shoe until it has more high cards and aces then you start increasing you bet sizing (keeping it simple :-) ) whereas in this game you may track all the high cards but you need a 2 to make a straight or counting suits but you fold 10 hands before getting a suited 3 card starting hand that turns into a flush winning 4-1. So fold 10 hands at $10 ante stake = -$100 then $10 ante and $20 play with a flush wins $10 on the ante bet and $80 on the play = +$90 with a balance of -$10. Therefore you'd need to hit a flush more often than 1 in 10 hands to make that favourable which doesn't happen.

That said I have not captured the frequency of the starting hand combos so I may have a look at that just to determine if there is any possibility of a suit count.

How did you find the game, did you enjoy playing it?
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UKMark
UKMark
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June 20th, 2018 at 3:11:13 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I calculated this for the 6 deck probabilities. Note that some One Pair, Two Pair and 3oaK hands can also be flushes; such hands are shown as flushes in the table below. Could someone please check me on this?

Hi Card____42.4564 %
one Pair___ 45.5919 %
two pair___ 6.5574 %
3 oak______ 4.1838 %
Straight___ _0.3338 %
Flush _______ 0.3423 %
Boat________ 0.3653 %
4 oak________0.1668 %
5 oak________0.002316 %
Straight Fl___0.00117 %
Royal________0.00013 %

Note that a Full House > Flush > Straight



Have you calculated the base probabilities of a hand from a 6 deck shoe, if so check it with the details the Wizard has done, link in Miplet's reply.

The thing is that although calculating the probability for a 5 card hand from 312 cards is one thing, calculating if it is a winning hand is another so although your odds look close (not checked) it's not the true odds of a winning or losing hand.

One thing to note that you have shown is that you get a boat more often than a flush or a straight. In the game I decided to leave the std poker hand rankings in place as these are more well known and only added the 5 of a kind hand before the straight flush.

This means not only do you hit a boat on average more often than a straight or flush you also get better odds for it, that applies for a shoe dealt game. Factoring in a CSM deal the odds change with a boat beating a flush but not a straight in terms of probability.

Thanks for your input
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UKMark
UKMark
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June 20th, 2018 at 3:40:18 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Seems like it would be playable. The HE is probably a bit too high, though, because the 6 deck will get more hands out than most poker games. I would guess 40-42 HPH. Blackjack pay (3:2) on 3oak would fix it, I think. Could be too much of an over-correction.



The house edge differs if the game is dealt from a shoe or a CSM. I have determined this is due to the card availability at the start of the deal when dealing with a full 312 cards opposed to a diminishing number of cards, and therefore combinations, from a shoe.

I think the game is more suited to a CSM deal as this also alleviates any counting possibility as mentioned by gamerfreak but we must allow for the shoe deal. As the demo game runs as a shoe deal I have indicated the shoe HE.

I have looked at the 3:2 option for 3oak hands but it does have too big an impact on the HE so it's not really viable.

That does lead me to ask this:

Given a choice of
1:1 on ante bet and push play bets with a winning high card hand and 1:1 on 3oak
OR
push ante and play bets on a winning high card hand and winning 2:1 on 3oak

which do you think players would prefer?

Bearing in mind you win with a HCH almost twice as much as with 3oak but you do win more overall with 3oak at 2:1 but I have thought about the player perception of the game and as you hit more HCH and winning on the ante bet seems more player friendly than getting the 2:1 on 3oak that you don't see as often? It's a player perception rather than a maths based decision cos most players play with what they see rather than what actually could make money.

Really interested to get views on this.

Cheers
Success comes in cans, not can'ts
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 20th, 2018 at 6:20:36 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

The push is not on the beat bet, it is on the Play Bet, which is 2x the ante.

The strategy for this game is not immediately obvious. When dealer's 2-card hand is a pair or A-high and higher than player's 3-card hand (ignoring flushes and straights) then I think player folds. But there is probably a lot of fine structure in the Play/Fold decision depending upon the details of the dealer and player hands.



Thanks for the correction. Read it cross-eyed or too quickly, I think.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SM777
SM777
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June 20th, 2018 at 6:46:59 AM permalink
I would estimate the people interested in playing poker with 6 decks at a very low percentage.
Torghatten
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June 20th, 2018 at 7:28:57 AM permalink
Quote: UKMark



I have looked at the 3:2 option for 3oak hands but it does have too big an impact on the HE so it's not really viable.


What about 3:2 or even 2:1 on suited 3oak? (And similiar for 4/5 oak)
gordonm888
gordonm888
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June 20th, 2018 at 11:47:07 AM permalink
Quote: UKMark



The thing is that although calculating the probability for a 5 card hand from 312 cards is one thing, calculating if it is a winning hand is another so although your odds look close (not checked) it's not the true odds of a winning or losing hand.


Good lord, I know that the extra information you get from seeing the 3 cards in your hand and the 2 face-up cards in the dealer's hand will define strategy and decisively drive the Fold/Play decision.

I simply calculated those 52 card probabilities to get a feel for how often different hands will occur. For example, gamerfreak's question about tracking suits in a shoe looks to be irrelevant in a game where less than 0.5% of all hands will be flushes. But mostly, I wanted to get a feel for how often pairing occurs before I analyzed the game.

Indeed, by looking at the hand probabilities table and thinking about the game structure I can conclude that there are probably no viable "card counting" strategies that can be used against this game (if indeed you envision multiple hands being dealt from a six deck shoe.)

Also, I agree that your House Edge is too large and will be a negative factor in player acceptance, especially considering the enormous number of player "errors" (non-optimal player decisions) that will occur.

Also, your House Edge was probably calculated with a fresh 6 card shoe, but the House Edge will tend to increase with shoe penetration.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jun 20, 2018
UKMark
UKMark
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June 21st, 2018 at 2:14:12 PM permalink
I would say that the discerning player who takes time to read the game details and look at the house edge may be perturbed by a HE around 3.5% but for the casual player, and there are many, this may not be a consideration.

The game is better dealt from a CSM as this alleviates the need to reshuffle and due to the speed of the game the drop in HE between a CSM and shoe should be made up in the additional game play time.

A CSM game HE is 2.04% with the shoe deal coming in at 3.48%. The difference is due to the number of better 3 card starting hands the player sees, these being 1 pair, flush, straight, trips and straight flush that go on to win around 65% of the time.

I have thought about the 3oak, 4oak & 5oak suited win options but think that would be something to bring in as a jackpot style prize or side bet but I haven't done any work on it yet.
Success comes in cans, not can'ts

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