I just want to make sure I understand this bet, and then I'll offer a few comments. Please understand that I'm not trying to poo-poo this idea, if this is the only bet you have patented, that is still one more than I have!
I look at this Point of Four, let's call it, and here's what I'm getting:
Probability of Winning: (3/9) * (3/24) = 0.04166666666
Now, bets are on a For-One basis, thus:
(0.04166666666 * 110) - ((1-0.04166666666) * 5) = -0.2083333341
Which is an expected loss of $0.20833 on a $5 bet which represents a House Edge of 4.1667%, which agrees with your figures.
It would be the same for any other numbers, in terms of how to arrive at the house edge. My Questions/Comments
1.) I can understand why having the bet still working after a Seven-Out might be a PITA for the dealers, but then again, couldn't you just have a different box for the bets completely away from the main layout? You could have it be like the Fire Bet where the player's chip gets slid to a circle marked with the player's designated, 'Number,' until resolved. Since the bet resolves on a new point established no matter what, no bets would get in the way of one another. You could just put a number near the box where the bets go indicating what point number the bet is, 'On.'
The reason why I suggest that is because, without the feature of the bet staying up, this just comes off as a really bizarre sort of Proposition Bet that, while not exactly a one roll prop (two rolls matter and we don't know how long they'll take) kind of resolves similarly to a one roll prop.
Of course that brings us to the idea in the OP:
2.) (33 * 3/24) - (5 * 21/24) = -0.25 Expected Loss $0.25, House Edge 5.00%
(Just making sure I understood how the bet functioned)
-On this, I think the main problem was designating how much of the bet is or is not active after a seven-out. It doesn't matter, it's completely irrelevant whether or not the current hand is a seven-out. All you are doing is betting on whether or not the next point will be the same as the current point. It just seems like not paying attention to, "The bet is reduced," sort of verbiage makes it easier to understand. The bet pays the same no matter what. I don't understand the point of all of this, 'Proportional,' verbiage.
-How would you explain the OP version to a player? Simple: "You are betting the next point number will be the same as the point that is on."
With that said, I offer this:
3.) With the way that it works in the OP, this functions even closer to the way a one roll Proposition bet would function. Except, it could take more than one roll. I guess one thing that I don't understand is why you couldn't call it something like, 'Pick Your Point,' and make it a bet that can be made on any number before the CO roll, or anytime as essentially a Hop Bet, for that matter. I get that it's not a Hop Bet in the strictest sense, but it does resolve 66% of the time.
Offering it before the CO roll actually makes the most sense to me, because if you do that, players may place a bet on multiple numbers, if they like, and it also doesn't interfere with a seven-out clearing the layout if you do it that way.
4.) Finally, I don't know that this really calls for a $5 bet, especially not with the most recent version that you posted. I mean, the hit rate on something like a six is:
(5/11) * (5/24) = 0.09469696969 (45 * 0.09469696969) - ((1-0.09469696969)*5) = -0.2651515155 Expected Loss 5.303% HE
Okay, so essentially a 9.5% Hit Rate, at best.
I guess my point is that if you're going to ask for main bet money for a side bet that doesn't have a main bet hit rate, it's not going to take the player seeing too many red chips disappear to lose interest.
I could definitely understand the $5 on the version of the bet highlighted in the OP, the hit rate is much higher. 12.5%-20.83% depending on the number. That would still be a low hit rate for a base game, but reasonable enough for a $5 side bet. WHAT I WOULD DO
My opinion and $0.50 would get you a cup of coffee ten years ago, now maybe half a cup at a gas station, but here's what I would do...and I don't even know that it would make this something I would play:
A.) Keep the version in the OP, keep the $5 minimum (especially since the pays are wonky without it) and make it so that the bet takes place BEFORE the CO (or anytime) and can be made on multiple numbers if the player likes. If it's before the CO only, then it will never interfere with the sweep on a seven-out.
B.) Keep the most recent version you posted, with the same rules, but make the minimum bet $1 due to the low hit rate. I mean, you're going to be competing for market share against the Fire and ATS and the Fire Bet (while less likely) offers more of a lottery style ridiculously huge payout and generally has a $1 minimum. Granted, the Fire Bet has a higher house edge, but do you really expect the average Craps player to have any inkling, if they make side bets in the first place, of the difference?
Your bet is closer to the ATS in terms of payouts, and that one comes with a $1 minimum. The payouts on the ATS are actually a little higher relative to the amount bet, of course, they have a lower hit rate.
I just don't see how this fills any great need at the $5 level, or any great want, for that matter...with the second version. Ignoring the House Edge, it seems most similar to a Hop Bet to me (other than the multi-roll factor) and those are a buck. Hard Ways are a buck. A Crap Check is a buck.
Vultures can't be choosers.