Best videopoker bonuses

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jsm
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:01:43 PM permalink
Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.
billryan
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:14:01 PM permalink
Life happened.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ibeatyouraces
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.


I had a session last year where I put in a $415.00 ticket on the same game/denomination and lost it all within an hour!

On the flip side, I've had royals within 9 hands of each other.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gamerfreak
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:24:08 PM permalink
Variance.

Nothing ‘unusual’ happened unless you are down more than 2 standard deviations.
100xOdds
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:24:26 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

Perhaps the Wizard himself can help here. I went to one of my local venues and played 2,540 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better at 25 cents full-coin. I had a session loss of $445.00 with the machine holding 14% (!) This caused me to think "what...happened." I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.


one word: variance

I played $2 9/6 JoB, 5000 hands in one session.
was up +$1000 without hitting a royal
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
jsm
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:31:54 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Variance.

Nothing ‘unusual’ happened unless you are down more than 2 standard deviations.



And I really don't know how many standard deviations that session loss was; I am quite curious. Additionally, there's the 68-95-99.7 crowd and the 1 - 1/s^2 (Chebyshev) crowd. The distribution of video-poker hands is decidedly non-normal, which makes me think the Chebyshev crowd is more relevant here.

In any case, I understand JoB carries variance (of 19.5 bets squared). However, based on my 300,000-plus hands of play, this loss seems anomalous--only x% of the time among 2,540-hand sessions. If someone can help estimate the "x," that would be very helpful.

And for what it's worth, I am 6,000 coins down ($1,500) over 20,500 hands of the same game with good strategy. Ouch, of course. But how much "ouch"? 1% unlikely? 0.1% unlikely? `Tis the question.
mustangsally
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:40:46 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

I play with good strategy and am wondering how likely a loss like this is across the space of 2,540-hand sessions played perfectly. Thanks for any help.

about 1 in 1,156
0.086527%

btw, your session does not have a normal distribution
I used 2 programs to calculate this and they both agree
on the result


better luck next time!
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Apr 30, 2018
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gamerfreak
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:43:58 PM permalink
Why would VP not have a normal distribution?
jsm
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:45:38 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

about 1 in 1,156
0.086527%

btw, your session does not have a normal distribution
I used 2 programs to calculate this and they both agree
on the result

better luck next time!
Sally



Thank you. That is too bad and makes me wonder. Could you, if you would, answer the same question with a loss of 1,202 units over 20,500 hands?
mustangsally
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April 30th, 2018 at 12:51:38 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Why would VP not have a normal distribution?

not enough hands played is the common reason. Most games require over 100k hands to look normal, at least from my studies

that is why having a program calculate for you (like VP for Windows)
makes you feel so much better
no guessing and not waiting for simulations to return an estimate

Sally
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mustangsally
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April 30th, 2018 at 1:01:18 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

answer the same question with a loss of 1,202 units over 20,500 hands?

cumulative results (X or less - or worse in your case)
-1202
0.00282669 (0.282669%)
1 in 353.7706646

data (some)
XJacks or better 9-6 [Flat]1 in
-13000.000894641117.768041
-12990.000905831103.959904
-12980.000917141090.346076
-12970.000928581076.913136
-12960.000940161063.648741
-12950.000951861050.574664
-12940.000963691037.678092
-12930.000975661024.947215
-12920.000987771012.381425
-12910.0011000
-12900.00101238987.7713902
-12890.00102489975.7144669
-12880.00103755963.8089731
-12870.00105034952.0726622
-12860.00106328940.4860432
-12850.00107636929.0571928
-12840.00108959917.7764113
-12830.00110296906.6511932
-12820.00111648895.6721124
-12810.00113015884.8382958
-12800.00114398874.1411563
-12790.00115795863.5951466
-12780.00117208853.184083
-12770.00118636842.914461
-12760.00120081832.7712128
-12750.00121541822.7676257
-12740.00123017812.8957786
-12730.00124509803.154792
-12720.00126017793.5437282
-12710.00127542784.0554484
-12700.00129084774.6893496
-12690.00130642765.4506208
-12680.00132217756.332393
-12670.00133809747.3338864
-12660.00135419738.4488144
-12650.00137046729.6820046
-12640.00138691721.0273197
-12630.00140353712.4892236
-12620.00142033704.0617321
-12610.00143731695.7441331
-12600.00145448687.5309389
-12590.00147183679.4262924
-12580.00148936671.4293388
-12570.00150709663.5303797
-12560.001525655.7377049
-12550.0015431648.0461409
-12540.0015614640.4508774
-12530.00157989632.9554589
-12520.00159857625.5590934
-12510.00161746618.2533107
-12500.00163654611.045254
-12490.00165583603.9267316
-12480.00167532596.9008906
-12470.00169502589.9635403
-12460.00171492583.1175798
-12450.00173503576.3589102
-12440.00175536569.6837116
-12430.00177589563.0979396
-12420.00179664556.594532
-12410.00181761550.1730294
-12400.0018388543.8329345
-12390.00186021537.5737148
-12380.00188184531.3948051
-12370.00190369525.2956101
-12360.00192578519.2701139
-12350.00194809513.3233064
-12340.00197063507.4519316
-12330.0019934501.655463
-12320.00201641495.9308871
-12310.00203966490.2777914
-12300.00206314484.6980816
-12290.00208687479.1865329
-12280.00211084473.7450494
-12270.00213506468.3709123
-12260.00215952463.0658665
-12250.00218423457.8272435
-12240.00220919452.6545929
-12230.00223441447.5454371
-12220.00225989442.4994137
-12210.00228562437.5180476
-12200.00231161432.5989246
-12190.00233787427.7397802
-12180.00236439422.9420696
-12170.00239118418.2035648
-12160.00241824413.5238851
-12150.00244557408.902628
-12140.00247317404.3393701
-12130.00250105399.8320705
-12120.00252921395.3803757
-12110.00255766390.9823823
-12100.00258638386.6407875
-12090.00261539382.352154
-12080.00264469378.1161497
-12070.00267429373.9310247
-12060.00270417369.799236
-12050.00273435365.7176294
-12040.00276483361.6858903
-12030.00279561357.7036854
-12020.00282669353.7706646
-12010.00285808349.8852376
-12000.00288978346.0471039
-11990.00292179342.2559458
-11980.00295411338.5114298
-11970.00298675334.8120867
-11960.00301971331.1576277
-11950.00305299327.5477483
-11940.00308659323.9821291
-11930.00312052320.4594106
-11920.00315478316.9793139
-11910.00318937313.5415458
-11900.00322429310.1457995
-11890.00325955306.7908147
-11880.00329515303.4763213
-11870.0033311300.2011348
-11860.00336739296.9658994
-11850.00340403293.7694439
-11840.00344102290.6115047
-11830.00347836287.4918065
-11820.00351606284.4092535
-11810.00355412281.3636006
-11800.00359254278.3545903
-11790.00363133275.3811964
-11780.00367048272.443931
-11770.00371001269.5410524
-11760.00374991266.6730668
-11750.00379019263.839016
-11740.00383085261.0386729
-11730.00387189258.2718001
-11720.00391331255.5381506
-11710.00395513252.83619
-11700.00399733250.1669865
-11690.00403993247.5290413
-11680.00408293244.9221515
-11670.00412633242.3461042
-11660.00417014239.8001026
-11650.00421435237.284516
-11640.00425897234.7985546
-11630.00430401232.3414676
-11620.00434946229.9135985
-11610.00439533227.5142026
-11600.00444163225.1425715
-11590.00448835222.7990241
-11580.0045355220.4828575
-11570.00458308218.1938784
-11560.0046311215.9314202
-11550.00467956213.6953047
-11540.00472846211.4853462
-11530.0047778209.3013521
-11520.0048276207.1422653
-11510.00487785205.0083541
-11500.00492855202.8994329
-11490.00497971200.8149069
-11480.00503133198.7546037
-11470.00508343196.7175706
-11460.00513598194.704808
-11450.00518902192.7146166
-11440.00524253190.7475971
-11430.00529651188.8035707
-11420.00535099186.8813061
-11410.00540594184.9817053
-11400.00546139183.1035689
-11390.00551733181.2470887
-11380.00557377179.4117805
-11370.00563071177.5974966
-11360.00568816175.8037749
-11350.00574611174.0307791
-11340.00580458172.2777531
-11330.00586356170.5448567
-11320.00592305168.8319362
-11310.00598308167.1379958
-11300.00604362165.4637452
-11290.0061047163.8082133
-11280.00616631162.1715418
-11270.00622846160.553331
-11260.00629115158.9534505
-11250.00635439157.371518
-11240.00641817155.8076523
-11230.00648251154.2612352
-11220.0065474152.7323823
-11210.00661286151.2205007
-11200.00667888149.7257025
-11190.00674546148.2478586
-11180.00681262146.7864052
-11170.00688035145.3414434
-11160.00694867143.9124322
-11150.00701757142.4994692
-11140.00708705141.1024333
-11130.00715713139.7208099
-11120.0072278138.3546861
-11110.00729907137.0037553
-11100.00737095135.6677226
-11090.00744343134.3466654
-11080.00751653133.0401129
-11070.00759024131.7481397
-11060.00766457130.4704634
-11050.00773953129.2068123
-11040.00781511127.957252
-11030.00789133126.7213512
-11020.00796818125.499173
-11010.00804568124.2903024
-11000.00812381123.0949518


Sally
cumulative view


still not normal looking at 20.5k hands
Last edited by: mustangsally on Apr 30, 2018
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jsm
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April 30th, 2018 at 2:02:01 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

cumulative results (X or less - or worse in your case)
-1202
0.00282669 (0.282669%)
1 in 353.7706646



Egad...and thanks again!
bobbartop
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April 30th, 2018 at 2:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: jsm

This caused me to think "what...happened."




What do you think happened? Did you expect not to ever have a session like that?
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
mustangsally
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April 30th, 2018 at 2:53:38 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

Did you expect not to ever have a session like that?

the interesting thing I see is that probability to lose $445...

is about the same probability of ending at -$286.25 or
is about the same probability of ending at $132.5



Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Apr 30, 2018
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ahiromu
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April 30th, 2018 at 3:00:33 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/jacks-or-better/

8.5% of your return is in 4oak or better and that's 9% if you include the HE (meaning your return is 91%). So you had a bad session within a bad session; you missed out on 4oak and you underperformed on the rest. That's at least how I like to think about JoB.

Enjoy the sessions where you hit two 4oak within 20 hands.

Edit: Or you had a 4oak and just got screwed on the rest.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
ECoaster
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April 30th, 2018 at 3:52:42 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

not enough hands played is the common reason. Most games require over 100k hands to look normal, at least from my studies



That being said... I've often wondered how much the average player (ie. not playing thousands and thousands of hands) would really notice the difference between a 9/6 and something like an 8/5 JOB game.
RS
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April 30th, 2018 at 5:51:22 PM permalink
Quote: ECoaster

That being said... I've often wondered how much the average player (ie. not playing thousands and thousands of hands) would really notice the difference between a 9/6 and something like an 8/5 JOB game.


It’s indistinguishable, particularly on higher variance games like DDB.
Wizard
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April 30th, 2018 at 8:53:48 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

about 1 in 1,156



Thanks Sally! You can take anything Sally says to the bank.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bobbartop
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April 30th, 2018 at 9:26:33 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

the interesting thing I see is that probability to lose $445...

is about the same probability of ending at -$286.25 or
is about the same probability of ending at $132.5



Sally




Tough session, for sure. I didn't mean to sound rude to the original poster, but JoB is a "gentle version". Expect it to happen again, not every month, but just look forward to it.

It hurts. Walk it off.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
oldbudman
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May 6th, 2018 at 10:02:48 AM permalink
My wife and I play JOB or BP exclusively and track all our 4 OAK's, SF, and RF when we are in Vegas. Been doing this for about 4 years. Really just for fun and comparison but it really keeps you sane when going through the stretches of large ups and downs. This trip I had one bad stretch of 2757 hands with no 4 OAK and one good stretch of (5) 4 OAK in 518 hands. Also had 3 Royals this trip but zero the last 3 trips. Since 2015, I show playing (rounded) 650,000 hands with 1541 4 OAK recorded. Though I may have missed or miscalculated the number of hands slightly, I know this is really close. That is 1 every 422 hands. So it least as far as we are concerned the math works pretty close over the long term.
Ace2
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May 6th, 2018 at 5:12:19 PM permalink
The way to calculate this with reasonable accuracy is by removing the royal flush out of the calculation (1 in ~40,000) since you’re only playing 2,540 hands.

By doing that the edge goes from 0.46% to 2.43% And the standard deviation goes from 4.42 to 1.93.

So the expected result for 2,540 plays is -62 +/- 97 units. At a loss of 356 units, you’re 3.03 deviations to the left of expectations.
It’s all about making that GTA
beachbumbabs
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:01:13 PM permalink
Quote: oldbudman

My wife and I play JOB or BP exclusively and track all our 4 OAK's, SF, and RF when we are in Vegas. Been doing this for about 4 years. Really just for fun and comparison but it really keeps you sane when going through the stretches of large ups and downs. This trip I had one bad stretch of 2757 hands with no 4 OAK and one good stretch of (5) 4 OAK in 518 hands. Also had 3 Royals this trip but zero the last 3 trips. Since 2015, I show playing (rounded) 650,000 hands with 1541 4 OAK recorded. Though I may have missed or miscalculated the number of hands slightly, I know this is really close. That is 1 every 422 hands. So it least as far as we are concerned the math works pretty close over the long term.



Nice! Thanks for the stats.

I also find it fun to count particular hands when playing next to a friend. Lose buys dinner or something.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
dahoss2002
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May 13th, 2018 at 11:54:14 PM permalink
Now that is a bad day! Last year I was playing .25 8/5 JOB on the days that they had 10x multiplier for your first 200 points at my local casino. I know 8/5 is awful and do not play it anymore because we have 9/6 at the dollar level. Anyway, I had to play 3200 hands to get those 200 points took me 4-5 hours and I think the worst day I lost 400. Most were less than 200 and had a few winners in there too and a Royal. You just had an awful day and hopefully it will never happen again.
speedycrap
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May 14th, 2018 at 4:48:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Sally! You can take anything Sally says to the bank.

To deposit and use as collectoral for a loan.😁😁😁😁😁😁😁
speedycrap
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May 14th, 2018 at 4:53:44 AM permalink
Thanks Sally for the info.
mustangsally
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May 14th, 2018 at 8:24:55 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The way to calculate this with reasonable accuracy

still 'reasonable' is what it is
Quote: Ace2

By doing that the edge goes from 0.46% to 2.43% And the standard deviation goes from 4.42 to 1.93.

agree

Quote: Ace2

So the expected result for 2,540 plays is -62 +/- 97 units. At a loss of 356 units, you’re 3.03 deviations to the left of expectations.

one is still almost 2 times likely to be ruined sometimes
before the end of 2,540 plays, using ev and sd that is.

this has been discussed many times B4 2 here at WoV and by many other math gurus.

.00091615 is ruin
about 1 in 1,092 using this method.

different from the original calculation, btw

bottom line is, as I see it, one should EXPECT at least 1 horrible session over a lifetime of play
at video poker, playing a fair game that is
Sally
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May 14th, 2018 at 8:31:04 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

To deposit and use as collectoral for a loan.😁😁😁😁😁😁😁

interesting thought.

I due say that for every right answer I get to a question, 50% of the time it is for a different question that was asked and that 50% I am wrong for the original question, I am wrong at least twice.

and I am still younger than my Mom!
Sally
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