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Wizard
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:07:45 PM permalink
Once I met up with JB at the Four Queens and caught him playing $1 9-6 Jacks or Better. I rebuked him saying he should have been playing 10-7 Double Bonus, which they have at the same denomination. He replied that he only knew 9-6 Jacks strategy. To that I replied that even that being the case, he would still be better off on 10-7 Double Bonus and using 9-6 Jacks strategy. He disagreed and a bet was made.

The following table shows the return of various games under four commonly known strategies.

Game Optimal 9/6 Jacks 9/6 DDB 8/5 BP 10/7 DB
9/6 JoB 99.54% 99.54% 98.51% 99.54% 98.94%
9/5 JoB 98.45% 98.44% 97.38% 98.45% 97.44%
8/6 JoB 98.39% 98.39% 97.43% 98.39% 97.82%
8/5 BP 99.17% 99.16% 98.37% 99.17% 98.20%
7/5 BP 98.07% 98.01% 97.29% 98.01% 97.08%
10/6 DDB 100.07% 99.59% 100.07% 99.59% 99.40%
9/6 DDB 98.98% 98.44% 98.98% 98.44% 98.28%
9/5 DDB 97.87% 97.34% 97.84% 97.35% 96.79%
8/5 DDB 96.79% 96.19% 96.76% 96.20% 95.67%
10/7/5 DB 100.17% 99.63% 99.86% 99.61% 100.17%
9/7/5 DB 99.11% 98.48% 98.77% 98.46% 99.05%
9/6/5 DB 97.81% 97.38% 97.63% 97.37% 97.56%
9/6 BPD 99.64% 99.61% 99.37% 99.60% 99.29%
9/7 TDB 99.58% 97.15% 98.49% 97.13% 97.67%
9/5 WHA 99.57% 99.16% 99.54% 99.16% 98.59%


As you can see, the return of 10/7 Double Bonus using 9-6 Jacks strategy is 99.63%, which is higher than the 99.54% of 9-6 Jacks and optimal strategy.

The next table shows the cost in errors for using the wrong strategy. The strategies are along the top row and the games are along the left column.


Game 9/6 Jacks 9/6 DDB 8/5 BP 10/7 DB
9/6 JoB 0.00% 1.03% 0.01% 0.61%
9/5 JoB 0.01% 1.07% 0.00% 1.01%
8/6 JoB 0.00% 0.97% 0.01% 0.57%
8/5 BP 0.01% 0.79% 0.00% 0.96%
7/5 BP 0.06% 0.78% 0.05% 0.99%
10/6 DDB 0.47% 0.00% 0.48% 0.66%
9/6 DDB 0.54% 0.00% 0.54% 0.70%
9/5 DDB 0.53% 0.03% 0.52% 1.09%
8/5 DDB 0.60% 0.03% 0.59% 1.12%
10/7/5 DB 0.54% 0.32% 0.56% 0.00%
9/7/5 DB 0.63% 0.34% 0.65% 0.05%
9/6/5 DB 0.43% 0.17% 0.43% 0.25%
9/6 BPD 0.03% 0.28% 0.04% 0.35%
9/7 TDB 2.43% 1.09% 2.45% 1.91%
9/5 WHA 0.41% 0.03% 0.41% 0.98%


Questions? Comments? Corrections?

In particular are there any major strategies I'm forgetting, not including wild card games?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rxwine
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:20:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Questions? Comments? Corrections?



Did you win any money from JB? You just left us hanging.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Canyonero
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:29:02 PM permalink
Excellent information, I had beed wondering about that.

So the damage of using the wrong strategy is not that bad after all. Especially with all the double, triple and triple double bonuses, I get confused.
Wizard
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:39:24 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Did you win any money from JB? You just left us hanging.



Yes! This was years ago so I don't recall the amount but probably something friendly like $5.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DiscreteMaths2
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:40:06 PM permalink
I love these types of problems so thanks for compiling the numbers. I feel like there is an opportunity to do some cool data visualization on that 2nd table so you could get a feel of how related the games are to each other but I am not sure what would work best.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
Wizard
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June 13th, 2016 at 3:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

So the damage of using the wrong strategy is not that bad after all. Especially with all the double, triple and triple double bonuses, I get confused.



I wouldn't put it that way. Depends on the game and strategy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
cyberbabble
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June 13th, 2016 at 6:36:02 PM permalink
Very good info, Wiz. I've wondered about what not using the best strategy costs.

Which is the best single strategy for NSU deuces and full pay deuces.

Learn JOB and a deuces strategy and be ready to play anywhere.
Dalex64
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June 13th, 2016 at 6:59:22 PM permalink
Great info!
rsactuary
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June 13th, 2016 at 8:48:06 PM permalink
Excellent information.

I would like to see all of your VP analyses extended to the less than full pay versions of the pay tables as full pay becomes harder and harder to find.

For example, within driving range of Dallas (Winstar in OK and Shreveport) at the 25 cent level, most VP is at 97.5%
BobDancer
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June 13th, 2016 at 10:24:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes! This was years ago so I don't recall the amount but probably something friendly like $5.




The overall premise is correct that playing 10/7 DB with 9/6 JoB strategy has higher EV than playing 9/6 JoB perfectly. An important factor that hasn’t been discussed so far in this thread is variance.

Many players who play JoB are attracted by the 2-for-1 for two pair which yields a considerably lower variance than DB --- which pays 1-for-1 for the same hand.

“Higher EV” is not the same as “better off.” For some players, variance matters. I know players who willing take the worst of it to play Triple Double Bonus (because the very high variance is exciting to them) and other players who play JoB and BP because they don’t like big swings. While I've met JB, I don't have a feel for how much "gamble" he has in him.

Not having heard the exact phrasing of the bet, it's not clear to me that Shack should have won. Higher EV --- yes. Better off --- who can say?
RogerKint
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June 13th, 2016 at 11:45:54 PM permalink
Most of the following list isn't very helpful unless you're playing low payback games. This list does include some wild card games.

Wrong Strategy
100% risk of ruin
AxelWolf
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June 14th, 2016 at 4:55:31 AM permalink
Something that might be interesting to discuss.

Let's say you're put in a situation that its +EV only on 10/7, but you don't know the strategy and there no time to learn you have to get down ASAP.
You run to the bathroom look on your phone because you quickly want to learn one or two of the most valuable changes. (taking in account difficulty)

Example the 3 flush changes, inside straights, just the Ace,

Some changes may be worth less but the hand comes up frequently.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Just something funny, a know poker player tweets out I have 7♥ 8♠ J♥ 9♥ 10♥ on VP (playing double double BP)
What do I hold, do I hold the pat str8 or go for it?

A Large majority said go for the straight flush. Many even after the math was given.

I'm thinking "YOU ARE POKER PLAYERS.... SERIOUSLY?" *Double Facepalm
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
teddys
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June 14th, 2016 at 2:31:07 PM permalink
Quote: BobDancer

The overall premise is correct that playing 10/7 DB with 9/6 JoB strategy has higher EV than playing 9/6 JoB perfectly. An important factor that hasn’t been discussed so far in this thread is variance.

Many players who play JoB are attracted by the 2-for-1 for two pair which yields a considerably lower variance than DB --- which pays 1-for-1 for the same hand.

“Higher EV” is not the same as “better off.” For some players, variance matters. I know players who willing take the worst of it to play Triple Double Bonus (because the very high variance is exciting to them) and other players who play JoB and BP because they don’t like big swings. While I've met JB, I don't have a feel for how much "gamble" he has in him.

Not having heard the exact phrasing of the bet, it's not clear to me that Shack should have won. Higher EV --- yes. Better off --- who can say?

The Wizard has never, ever considered variance in determining the "goodness" of a game. It's all about the E.V. For better or for worse, that is the way he has always done it.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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June 14th, 2016 at 2:57:03 PM permalink
Quote: BobDancer

Not having heard the exact phrasing of the bet, it's not clear to me that Shack should have won. Higher EV --- yes. Better off --- who can say?



Good point on the variance. This was years ago so I don't recall the exact phrasing but I think we both understood the bet was over which choice had the higher return. JB never argued I won and seemed grateful to have learned something.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 14th, 2016 at 3:05:08 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

The Wizard has never, ever considered variance in determining the "goodness" of a game. It's all about the E.V. For better or for worse, that is the way he has always done it.



That's usually true with me. However, there are exceptions. If you're given the choice of two or more positive plays, and can bet as much as you want, then the correct choice is that which maximizes (advantage/variance).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gamerfreak
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June 14th, 2016 at 3:18:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That's usually true with me. However, there are exceptions. If you're given the choice of two or more positive plays, and can bet as much as you want, then the correct choice is that which maximizes (advantage/variance).


Isn't that the purpose of your "Element of Risk" calculations https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ ?
Wizard
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June 14th, 2016 at 3:57:45 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Isn't that the purpose of your "Element of Risk" calculations https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ ?



Not exactly. Let me do an example. Suppose your local casino has a table game with two bets. You can bet as much or as little as you want and as many times as you want. However, you can only bet one.

A) 51% chance of winning 1 to 1.
B) 1.1% chance of winning 100 to 1.

Which should you bet if your objective is to double your bankroll with as few expected bets as possible?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gamerfreak
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June 14th, 2016 at 8:30:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Not exactly. Let me do an example. Suppose your local casino has a table game with two bets. You can bet as much or as little as you want and as many times as you want. However, you can only bet one.

A) 51% chance of winning 1 to 1.
B) 1.1% chance of winning 100 to 1.

Which should you bet if your objective is to double your bankroll with as few expected bets as possible?


1 bet with full bankroll on A
Wizard
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June 14th, 2016 at 8:35:57 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

1 bet with full bankroll on A



That would be incorrect. If you lose you'll never achieve the objective.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ChesterDog
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June 14th, 2016 at 8:43:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Not exactly. Let me do an example. Suppose your local casino has a table game with two bets. You can bet as much or as little as you want and as many times as you want. However, you can only bet one.

A) 51% chance of winning 1 to 1.
B) 1.1% chance of winning 100 to 1.

Which should you bet if your objective is to double your bankroll with as few expected bets as possible?



I would choose A and would bet 2% of my bankroll on each bet until my bankroll doubles. If I had to bet B, I would bet 0.111% of my bankroll on each bet.

And would the expected number to double the bankroll be 3,466 A bets or 11,657 B bets?
Wizard
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June 15th, 2016 at 9:53:40 AM permalink
Here are similar tables for deuces wild games. The first shows the return under three strategies -- optimal, full pay, and NSUD.

Game Optimal DW 25-15-9-5-3 DW 25-16-10-4-4
DW 25-15-9-5-3 100.76% 100.76% 99.73%
DW 25-16-10-4-4 99.73% 98.80% 99.73%
DW 25-15-9-4-4 98.91% 98.06% 98.90%
DW 20-12-10-4-4 97.58% 96.62% 97.53%
DW 25-16-13-4-3 96.77% 96.25% 96.58%
DWBP 9-4-4 99.45% 97.63% 98.15%
DWBP 13-4-3 98.80% 97.17% 97.59%
DWBP 10-4-3 97.36% 95.92% 96.05%
DBDW 12-4-3 99.81% 98.08% 97.86%
DBDW 9-4-3 98.61% 96.83% 96.31%


Cost of errors:

Game DW 25-15-9-5-3 DW 25-16-10-4-4
DW 25-15-9-5-3 0.00% 1.03%
DW 25-16-10-4-4 0.93% 0.00%
DW 25-15-9-4-4 0.85% 0.01%
DW 20-12-10-4-4 0.96% 0.05%
DW 25-16-13-4-3 0.51% 0.18%
DWBP 9-4-4 1.82% 1.30%
DWBP 13-4-3 1.63% 1.21%
DWBP 10-4-3 1.44% 1.31%
DBDW 12-4-3 1.73% 1.95%
DBDW 9-4-3 1.78% 2.30%


DW = Deuces Wild
DWBP= Deuces Wild Bonus Poker
DBDW = Double Bonus Deuces Wild

Generally, deuces wild can be unforgiving if you use the wrong strategy. The NSUD strategy is close to right for some other common pay tables. The full pay strategy is not useful for anything except that game. Finally, don't play a bonus game with a flat deuces strategy.

Note: for the Full Pay Deuces Wild strategy, I assume the player will hold the lowest pair when dealt two pair, counting aces as low.
Last edited by: Wizard on Jun 16, 2016
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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June 15th, 2016 at 10:04:45 AM permalink
I can't get a friend of mine to hold two pair, gut shot straights, two to a royal and a bunch of other fairly common holds in NSUD.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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June 15th, 2016 at 10:07:24 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I can't get a friend of mine to hold two pair, gut shot straights, two to a royal and a bunch of other fairly common holds in NSUD.



You can only lead a horse to water. Also, if every player played smart, then the casinos would make the rules a lot worse to maintain profitability.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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June 15th, 2016 at 10:09:06 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I can't get a friend of mine to hold two pair, gut shot straights, two to a royal and a bunch of other fairly common holds in NSUD.

It's time for a dear Joe letter.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TwoFeathersATL
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June 15th, 2016 at 10:47:23 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It's time for a dear Joe letter.

It might be time to buy a machine, ask 'Joe' to play on your machine. Promise free booze and Joe can crash on the couch ;-) If you can whip up some semblance of a buffet, that is a good idea as well....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Ibeatyouraces
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June 15th, 2016 at 10:50:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You can only lead a horse to water. Also, if every player played smart, then the casinos would make the rules a lot worse to maintain profitability.


Yeah, I always get the "well, my thinking is this..." response. And I keep telling him that there is no thinking about it, this stuff has already been figured out.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ayecarumba
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June 15th, 2016 at 2:58:07 PM permalink
So if my brain can only hold one optimal strategy... Which is the best? Or another way, which would give up the least on all other machines?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
iamnomad
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June 15th, 2016 at 3:12:01 PM permalink
Mike, this info is all very helpful...thanks for posting!
Wizard
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June 15th, 2016 at 3:21:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

So if my brain can only hold one optimal strategy... Which is the best? Or another way, which would give up the least on all other machines?



It would depend on what you're most likely to play. Personally, I only have memorized Jacks or Better and 16-10 deuces.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ibeatyouraces
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June 15th, 2016 at 3:24:02 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I can't get a friend of mine to hold two pair, gut shot straights, two to a royal and a bunch of other fairly common holds in NSUD.


The funny thing is he'll hold 3,4,5,6 and draw but not 6,7,9,10.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
tringlomane
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June 16th, 2016 at 12:08:58 PM permalink
DW 25-16-13-4-3 is 96.77%, fyi, not 97.09%.

And this thread reminds me of a post I made in another forum.
http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/index.php?posts/1020345/

Quote: tringlomane

I don't have them all memorized either. I have JoB nearly down cold, and Bonus is nearly identical to that (one change I can think of offhand: break Aces full at 6/5 Bonus only). After that I have the major changes that apply to DDB, Triple Bonus Plus, or Bonus Poker Deluxe familiarized. Note: The list below is NOT exhaustive.

Major deviations from Jacks or Better/Bonus Poker strategy:

-----------------------------------------------

Double Double Bonus/Triple Bonus Plus:

Straight/flush draw changes:
Inside straight draw better than garbage
Inside straight draw with 2 high cards better than two offsuit high cards. (e.g. QJT8 is better than QJ offsuit)

If flush is 6 for 1, 3 to Royal is better than 4 to flush UNLESS Royal draw has Ace AND Ten in it
KQJ suited and QJT suited is better than KK, QQ, JJ (except when DDB flush pays 5 for 1)

Ace high changes:
Ace only better than AH offsuit or KH offsuit (H=high card)...you still hold QJ offsuit vs. Ace
Break two pair with Aces
Break Aces full
***7/5 TB+ and 7/5 DDB only: Break Aces, 2s, 3s, 4s full
*** TB+ only: Outside 4 to a Straight Flush is better than a dealt straight or flush

-----------------------------------------------

Bonus Deluxe:
See Straight/Flush draw rules for DDB/TB+
EXCEPT
High pairs are ALWAYS better than 3 to a Royal

Offsuit high cards follow JoB.

-----------------------------------------------

And I would avoid this last game unless it's clearly the best option (it usually isn't on the strip, thank god)...but for completeness (if anyone notices a big omission of a strategy change, lmk, this isn't really my game of choice).

-----------------------------------------------

Double Bonus:

Follow ALL of DDB/TB+ straight/flush strategy plus...

IF flush is 7 for 1:
4 to a flush is ALWAYS better than 3 to a Royal
3 to a flush is better than garbage
3 to a flush with a high card is better than high card only
3 to a flush with 2 high cards is better than 2 to a Royal

If flush is 6 or 7 for 1, KQJ suited and QJT suited is better than KK, QQ, JJ

If the straight draw is 5 for 1 (you shouldn't be playing the game otherwise):
Outside straight draws are better than low pairs.
Inside straight draws with one or more high cards is better than 2 offsuit high cards. (e.g A345Q hold A345 vs. AQ offsuit)
QJT offsuit is better than QJ offsuit

Offsuit high cards follow JoB.

Break Aces full.

When the full house is 9 for 1:
Break Two Pair with Aces.

When the full house is 10 for 1 (never at a bar):
Always hold 2 pair.

--------------------------------------------------------------

If you use 9/6 JoB strategy and insist on not changing anything, it costs you:

0.60% at 7/5 Triple Bonus Plus.
0.54% at 9/5 DDB
0.63% at 9/7 DB

vs.

0.034% at 8/6 Bonus Deluxe
0.008% at 6/5 Bonus

But I think my tweaks cover a lot major things that cost you equity between the different variants. I would assume my suggestions would get you close to 0.1% error at DDB and TB+ at least.

Deuces, of course, is a completely different strategy that has to be familiarized. Playing JoB strategy on this game is just asking to throw your money away.

JB
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June 16th, 2016 at 1:54:25 PM permalink
As I recall it, the friendly 'dispute' was over which game's strategy would perform better on 10/7 DB: Wizard thought 9/6 Jacks strategy was superior whereas I thought the strategy for full-pay All American would be better.

In my defense, the AA paytable is more like DB than JOB because:
- AA and DB both pay 1-for-1 for two pair
- Straight and Flush payouts are increased in both AA and DB (you play for them with similar aggression in each game)
- Quad payouts are also increased in AA and DB

Knowing this, it seemed like a good bet. But the numbers indicate that 9/6 Jacks or Better strategy is indeed better on 10/7 DB than 40/8 All American strategy, so I lost the bet.

For academic purposes:
9/6 JOB strategy on 10/7 DB returns 99.6320%
40/8 AA strategy on 10/7 DB returns 99.4941%

In retrospect, the reason I was wrong is probably because of the 2-to-a-straight-flush plays that are made in AA but not in DB. I would not make those kinds of plays in DB, so I wasn't exactly considering them when I suggested that AA strategy might be better than JOB strategy.
Wizard
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June 16th, 2016 at 2:08:28 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

DW 25-16-13-4-3 is 96.77%, fyi, not 97.09%.



You're right. Thanks for the correction. My figure was for when a royal pays 940. My tables have been updated.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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June 17th, 2016 at 12:02:05 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

It might be time to buy a machine, ask 'Joe' to play on your machine. Promise free booze and Joe can crash on the couch ;-) If you can whip up some semblance of a buffet, that is a good idea as well....

Trust me if that was legal I would. I'd have the first mobile casino /party bus in Vegas. The hell with food trucks, casino trucks would be all the rage. Park that baby at a bougie old folks home.

Hello Martha, here's your favorite 6/5 VP machine. Would Mittens like a can of fancy feast this evening while you play?

PS. I would allow Bob and his doggie to play no limit single zero roulette.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Jun 17, 2016
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
teddys
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June 17th, 2016 at 7:52:09 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Trust me if that was legal I would. I'd have the first mobile casino /party bus in Vegas. The hell with food trucks, casino trucks would be all the rage. Park that baby at a bougie old folks home.

Hello Martha, here's your favorite 6/5 VP machine. Would Mittens like a can of fancy feast this evening while you play?

PS. I would allow Bob and his doggie to play no limit single zero roulette.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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August 9th, 2016 at 4:10:43 PM permalink
I have updated my tables to allow for holding good kickers to a four of a kind when playing a Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, or Double Bonus strategy in Double Double Bonus.

Here is the return table by game (left column) by strategy (top row):

Game Optimal 9/6 Jacks 9/6 DDB 8/5 BP 10/7 DB
9/6 JoB 99.54% 99.54% 98.51% 99.54% 98.94%
9/5 JoB 98.45% 98.44% 97.38% 98.45% 97.44%
8/6 JoB 98.39% 98.39% 97.43% 98.39% 97.82%
8/5 BP 99.17% 99.16% 98.37% 99.17% 98.20%
7/5 BP 98.07% 98.01% 97.29% 98.01% 97.08%
10/6 DDB 100.07% 99.76% 100.07% 99.76% 99.57%
9/6 DDB 98.98% 98.61% 98.98% 98.61% 98.45%
9/5 DDB 97.87% 97.51% 97.84% 97.52% 96.96%
8/5 DDB 96.79% 96.36% 96.76% 96.37% 95.84%
10/7/5 DB 100.17% 99.63% 99.86% 99.61% 100.17%
9/7/5 DB 99.11% 98.48% 98.77% 98.46% 99.05%
9/6/5 DB 97.81% 97.38% 97.63% 97.37% 97.56%
9/6 BPD 99.64% 99.61% 99.37% 99.60% 99.29%
9/7 TDB 99.58% 97.71% 98.49% 97.69% 98.24%
9/5 WHA 99.57% 99.16% 99.54% 99.16% 98.59%


Here is the cost to mistakes.

Game 9/6 Jacks 9/6 DDB 8/5 BP 10/7 DB
9/6 JoB 0.00% 1.03% 0.01% 0.61%
9/5 JoB 0.01% 1.07% 0.00% 1.01%
8/6 JoB 0.00% 0.97% 0.01% 0.57%
8/5 BP 0.01% 0.79% 0.00% 0.96%
7/5 BP 0.06% 0.78% 0.05% 0.99%
10/6 DDB 0.30% 0.00% 0.31% 0.50%
9/6 DDB 0.37% 0.00% 0.37% 0.53%
9/5 DDB 0.36% 0.03% 0.35% 0.92%
8/5 DDB 0.43% 0.03% 0.42% 0.95%
10/7/5 DB 0.54% 0.32% 0.56% 0.00%
9/7/5 DB 0.63% 0.34% 0.65% 0.05%
9/6/5 DB 0.43% 0.17% 0.43% 0.25%
9/6 BPD 0.03% 0.28% 0.04% 0.35%
9/7 TDB 1.86% 1.09% 1.88% 1.34%
9/5 WHA 0.41% 0.03% 0.41% 0.98%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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August 9th, 2016 at 5:59:55 PM permalink
Wow. If you are going to play Triple Double Bonus, you had better get the right strategy card!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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August 9th, 2016 at 7:08:25 PM permalink
I finally wrote up a proper page on this topic: Effect of Strategy Mismatches in Video Poker.

As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Joeshlabotnik
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August 9th, 2016 at 7:36:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I finally wrote up a proper page on this topic: Effect of Strategy Mismatches in Video Poker.

As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.



The page doesn't discuss this, but I was wondering: the biggest possible strategy booboo listed on the table earlier in this thread is playing 9/7 TDB with 9/6 JOB strategy. I was wondering which specific errors cost the most in that game. I was at first thinking of stuff like not keeping AAA3 from AAA39, but then I realized that that hand doesn't come up often enough to have that (-2%) effect. Is it more mundane stuff like not keeping the A alone and playing AJ offsuit and so forth?

Parenthetically, I was wondering if the reason why 9/7 TDB isn't very popular was the fact that you do get absolutely crushed if you don't play the proper strategy (as opposed to, say, JOB, where only a really stupid mistake costs all that much). I used to think it was the insane volatility, but given that people lap up DDB and various multiplier games, high volatility seems to be an encouragement, not a deterrent.
Wizard
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August 9th, 2016 at 8:11:46 PM permalink
I haven't taken the time to look at which are the plays that cost the most. Hopefully somebody else will provide a better answer.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
odiousgambit
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August 10th, 2016 at 2:34:07 AM permalink
I just came back from Cherokee NC where I discovered they had put in a bunch of Double Double Bonus machines. Now I know I would have been safe to play 9/6 JoB strategy, but I can't say if the paytables didn't blow, not investigating further. I was suspicious.

If I go again I'll be ready. I wonder if this is a trend elsewhere, these DDB machines showing up now.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
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August 24th, 2018 at 4:22:38 PM permalink
I see the cost of using 10/7 db strategy on 9/7 tdb is HUGE (-1.91%).

How about the cost of using 9/7 tdb strategy on 9/7 db?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
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