Optimal strategy didnt work

I have a question for all of you. How come I got totally wiped out using optimal stategy on JOB?

I am well aware that its nearly impossible to find a machine that pays 100% and I had no illusions of even coming out ahead. But I did believe that if i played optimal stategy as close to perfect as possible I might end the 4 day trip to vegas with 70 to 80 % of my Video Poker budget. Not ZERO. So with my optimal stategy cheat sheet in hand I set out to find some 9/6 JOB machines and played away. Win some lose some but always a steady decline in the credits column to zero and it never took long to get to zero. I played many different machine at casinos DT and on the Strip. Not always 9/6 but at least 8/5. I estimate to have played 10 hours in total

What do all of you think was going on or I was doing wrong

You played a -EV game and your result was negative. What exactly were you hoping would happen?

- EV game ??? Does this mean negative expectation?

Anyway as I said I expected to come out behind but not a direct RAPID path to ZERO. Shouldnt it have been more of a up and down path ending up about 20 - 25 % down. Not 100% down. Whats the point of optimal stategy if not to maximize a positive edge or Minimize a negative edge

Quote: 4jayman

I have a question for all of you. How come I got totally wiped out using optimal stategy on JOB?

I am well aware that its nearly impossible to find a machine that pays 100% and I had no illusions of even coming out ahead. But I did believe that if i played optimal stategy as close to perfect as possible I might end the 4 day trip to vegas with 70 to 80 % of my Video Poker budget. Not ZERO. So with my optimal stategy cheat sheet in hand I set out to find some 9/6 JOB machines and played away. Win some lose some but always a steady decline in the credits column to zero and it never took long to get to zero. I played many different machine at casinos DT and on the Strip. Not always 9/6 but at least 8/5. I estimate to have played 10 hours in total

What do all of you think was going on or I was doing wrong

Even playing 9/6 25 cent machines 5-coin you'll lose $66 an hour if you gon't get 4ok or SF. And if you're playing 8/5 it can go quickly. Any 4oK? What was your BR?

Quote: Greasyjohn

Even playing 9/6 25 cent machines 5-coin you'll lose $66 an hour if you gon't get 4ok or SF. And if you're playing 8/5 it can go quickly. Any 4oK?

Of course he hit 4 of a kinds.

Remember those 98+% payback numbers (even with optimal play) are calculated over the long run and a huge number of hands. In the short-term, without hitting a royal or some straight flush(es) / 4OAK(s), one can definitely play their credits down to zero pretty quick. You were apparently caught on the downslope... next time you might end up ahead in the same amount of time.

Quote: AxelWolf

Of course he hit 4 of a kinds.

But did he get one an hour? I've lost $100 an hour playing quarter 9/6 JoB.

Thanks for the reply.

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x. No Straight Flushes or 4 of a kind that I remember. Maybe I am just still in the short run.

Quote: Greasyjohn

But did he get one an hour? I've lost $100 an hour playing quarter 9/6 JoB.

Played the quarter 9/6 Job at NYNY and probabbly dropped $200 in 2 hours.
At the Freemont once, put a 100 dollar bill in the 9/6 quarter machine. Realized it paid in quarters. Decided to try to play the 100 down to nothing and couldn't. Did well, stayed even, got tired of playing, gritted my teeth and cashed out about 400 quarters.
Kind of a feast or famine game.

Quote: 4jayman

Thanks for the reply.

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x. No Straight Flushes or 4 of a kind that I remember. Maybe I am just still in the short run.

Well, like I said, if no SF or 4oK you'll lose $66 an hour on average. So it's not unlikely at all that you lost $500 in 10 hours, especially playing 8/5 machines. I once got 7 4oK in two hours, so good luck comes along too.

You'll get a 4oK about once every 440 hands, so to not get any in 10 hours would be very rare. (I hope you played on a card.)

Quote: 4jayman

Thanks for the reply.

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x. No Straight Flushes or 4 of a kind that I remember. Maybe I am just still in the short run.

You are definitely in the short term. And it could just happen again the same way the next time. The small house edge on 9/6 includes hitting a royal. You don't hit that and it could be ugly for a long time.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

You are definitely in the short term. And it could just happen again the same way the next time. The small house edge on 9/6 includes hitting a royal. You don't hit that and it could be ugly for a long time.


ZCore13

I agree. You can go back to Vegas, lose another 500.
3rd trip, hit the royal in 1st 5 min. Now you are even.
Thats Job, feast or famine.

Quote: 4jayman

Thanks for the reply.

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x. No Straight Flushes or 4 of a kind that I remember. Maybe I am just still in the short run.

Okay, you had an Optimal Strategy chart that you used and you said you played ten hours, and you played either 9/6 or 8/5, so we'll look at both of those.

We'll go ahead and use this:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

To simulate your results probability of bust. I'm also going to say you played 600 hands per hour or 6000 total hands.

9/6 JoB

Starting Units: 400
Wagering: 6000
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 20,000

Risk of Ruin: 5.68% (First Simulation) 5.61% (Second Simulation)

The best result was +3005 units for the first simulation and +2577 on the second.

8/5 JoB

Starting Units: 400
Wagering: 6000
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 20,000

Risk of Ruin: 23.77% (First Simulation), 23.51% (Second Simulation)

Conclusion

Okay, so the probability of you busting out in that time is somewhere between just shorter than 1 in 20 or just longer than 1 in 4 depending on what your action was on each of the two games. If it was 50/50, then your probability of busting was roughly (23.77+23.51+5.68+5.61)/4 = 14.6425%

That's a little shorter than a 1 in 7 shot at busting in that number of hands, if you play faster than 600 hands/hour, your probability of busting in ten hours would be greater.

Conclusion: You, "Should have," ran better, but busting out faster is far from inconceivable and you were probably under bankrolled for how long you wanted to play, at least, if you wanted to do it with anything close to a huge probability of being able to.

Quote: Mission146

Okay, you had an Optimal Strategy chart that you used and you said you played ten hours, and you played either 9/6 or 8/5, so we'll look at both of those.

We'll go ahead and use this:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

To simulate your results probability of bust. I'm also going to say you played 600 hands per hour or 6000 total hands.

9/6 JoB

Starting Units: 400
Wagering: 6000
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 20,000

Risk of Ruin: 5.68% (First Simulation) 5.61% (Second Simulation)

The best result was +3005 units for the first simulation and +2577 on the second.

8/5 JoB

Starting Units: 400
Wagering: 6000
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 20,000

Risk of Ruin: 23.77% (First Simulation), 23.51% (Second Simulation)

Conclusion

Okay, so the probability of you busting out in that time is somewhere between just shorter than 1 in 20 or just longer than 1 in 4 depending on what your action was on each of the two games. If it was 50/50, then your probability of busting was roughly (23.77+23.51+5.68+5.61)/4 = 14.6425%

That's a little shorter than a 1 in 7 shot at busting in that number of hands, if you play faster than 600 hands/hour, your probability of busting in ten hours would be greater.

Conclusion: You, "Should have," ran better, but busting out faster is far from inconceivable and you were probably under bankrolled for how long you wanted to play, at least, if you wanted to do it with anything close to a huge probability of being able to.

Now calculate the possibility of going 7k hands without a 4 of a kind.

that is hard to swallow

Quote: 4jayman

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x.

Just to clarify, that's a 25 cent machine, 1 line, 5 coins/hand, or a 25 cent machine 5 line?

Mission did some pretty good analysis on that. My lousy gut-feeling analysis says...

(These are assuming 1 line.)

If you played for 10 hours at a comfortable 8 hands/minute rate, that's 4800 hands, you ran your money through 12x, got about a 91.6% return. (You should be showing rewards for $6000 coin in.)

If you played at a more aggressive 12 hands/minute rate, that's 7200 hands, you ran your money through 18x, got about a 94.4% return. (You should be showing rewards for $9000 coin in.)

Neither of those returns are unreasonable for the short run.


For next time, perhaps look to vulture some Ultimate-X first, to pad your bankroll a little.

Quote: 4jayman

Thanks for the reply.

I had a $500 Bank Roll and played 25 cent 5x. No Straight Flushes or 4 of a kind that I remember. Maybe I am just still in the short run.

Losing 500 in 10 hrs is doable and not uncommon, Missions math backs that up.

Going 10 hrs without a quad its bizarre.

Ill assume you were in shock from losing $500 on VP game that you assumed would act more fair. that's why the up to 99% is deceiving.

You should absolutely remember getting a stf or 4oak. Normally someone playing single line remembers how many they get in a session, unless you get so many its hard to remember the exact amount.

I can remember the exact amount and ranks the last few sessions I played.

Most of the time fluctuations in vp are kinda brutal, every once in a while it's awesome. I don't like vp so much, but it's a good skill to have for comps and promotions. When you don't hit a royal you can ballpark losing 20-25/hr on single line 9/6. Also hitting lower than average 4oak will put you where you ended up. For an out of towner a decent day of quarter full pay vp at a downtown casino or gold coast/sams town/Orleans should get you room comps for future trips. Caesar's properties will get room comps too but no full pay vp at normal Joe denominations in lv.

I don't remember # of 4oak unless I was just playing a few hands of freeplay. I would notice if I didn't get any over say an hour of play though.

Quote: AxelWolf

Now calculate the possibility of going 7k hands without a 4 of a kind.

that is hard to swallow

That's actually an easy one, but we'll keep it simple and just do 9/6 Jacks:

No 4OaK

(1-0.00236255)^7000 = 6.44473921e-8 or 1 in 15,516,531.6612

That is a bit tough to swallow, but interestingly enough, no 4OaK's, SF's or RF's but everything else running as it, "Should," would result in a 0.91110334 return. I also did the simulations based on 6,000 hands, so:

(1-0.00236255)^6000 = 6.86217401e-7 or 1 in 1,457,264.12438

Which is still a bit ridiculous.

However, if we assume 6,000 hands at an effective return of 91.110334%, then:

((1-.91110334)*(6000 * 1.25)) = 666.72495

Which is an ACTUAL loss of $666.72495 based on everything else running as it, "Should," which is for 9/6 Jacks. Clearly, 8/5 Jacks would be even worse in this regard without those premium hands.

In fact, this would mean that, in terms of the total number of winning hands, the OP would have actually had to run better-than-expected on FH (or lower) in order to have played that many hands and only lost the $400.

Honestly, I think it's more likely that there were a couple of 4OaK's in there somewhere, it's really hard to believe that there weren't, or he shouldn't have gotten anywhere close to ten hours at 600 hands/hour.

Quote: mcallister3200

For an out of towner a decent day of quarter full pay vp at a downtown casino or gold coast/sams town/Orleans should get you room comps for future trips. Caesar's properties will get room comps too but no full pay vp at normal Joe denominations in lv.

I wouldn't even say it takes a, "Decent day," at Gold Coast, unless they really liked my Tables action, I get pretty good offers from them and I played about two hours hopping between nickels and quarters.

You also assume that the Original Poster was playing flawless JoB.

Quote: Mission146

That's actually an easy one, but we'll keep it simple and just do 9/6 Jacks:

No 4OaK

(1-0.00236255)^7000 = 6.44473921e-8 or 1 in 15,516,531.6612

That is a bit tough to swallow, but interestingly enough, no 4OaK's, SF's or RF's but everything else running as it, "Should," would result in a 0.91110334 return. I also did the simulations based on 6,000 hands, so:

(1-0.00236255)^6000 = 6.86217401e-7 or 1 in 1,457,264.12438

Which is still a bit ridiculous.

However, if we assume 6,000 hands at an effective return of 91.110334%, then:

((1-.91110334)*(6000 * 1.25)) = 666.72495

Which is an ACTUAL loss of $666.72495 based on everything else running as it, "Should," which is for 9/6 Jacks. Clearly, 8/5 Jacks would be even worse in this regard without those premium hands.

In fact, this would mean that, in terms of the total number of winning hands, the OP would have actually had to run better-than-expected on FH (or lower) in order to have played that many hands and only lost the $400.

Honestly, I think it's more likely that there were a couple of 4OaK's in there somewhere, it's really hard to believe that there weren't, or he shouldn't have gotten anywhere close to ten hours at 600 hands/hour.

I didn't know the math on that. I dont need no stinking math to know dam well it probably didn't happen.

I have went maybe 6 hrs without a 4 of a kind.
But If I went 10 hrs without a 4 of a kind.... I think my fist would find its way thought the glass on the machine (Iv'e seen a local guy do that).

When casinos used to run Double 4 of a kind promotions often(or 4 of a kind progressives), I always ran extremely good at the right time. I swear I averaged 3 per hr on slow machines. Fun, fun, fun on $1 Bonus poker deluxe, at $400 a pop and double pay. Now I'm a "sucker" for Double 4 of a kind promotions.

In all fairness, the time I went the longest without a 4 of a kind was on a 100 coin 4oak bonus promotion.

They used to have a great 4oK promo at Casino Royale where they'd give you a $25 bonus if you got one. Made their 8/5 Bonus game +EV, about 102% return. I know I'm not telling many of you something new. They also had a coupon that gave you $40 if the quad was one of three hands, like 6,7 or 8. It was nice to get that first, and still be eligible for the $25 bonus-any-quad. (Usually quit after I got the $25 bonus quad.) But that was back when CR had 8/5 Bonus--and had the coupons. That all came to an end. I used to like staying there. Short walk to the car. Nice little computer room. Some hot working girls. Once they dinged my credit card for about $30 (CR, not the working girls.) I asked them why and the girl on the phone looked into it and told me it was because there was a burn hole on the bedspread. I told her I didn't put it there. She said, "Yes you did."- her thinking being that I was the last person using the room before Fire Marshals noticed the burn hole. I told her that I don't smoke, and that I didn't use a curling iron in bed, those kinds of lines of logic. I said to her, "How do you know it wasn't there before I used the room?" And she said that they "Check the room after each use." I told her they can't check that thoroughly between each use to be sure the burn hole wasn't there. I told her that I've stayed there many times in the past without any incidents. Finally, after I was passed off to a manager the charge on my credit card was waived. You know, I wasn't upset when she said, "Yes, you did." She was young and not graceful in the art of suggesting that there weren't any viable alternatives to my guilt. Like, maybe there were seeds in the pot I was smoking in the room--those can pop and cause burn holes like the one found.

Nice frig in the room. Coffee maker all ready to go. Reggie, Elmer, at the player's club. Good inexpensive food court to use your comps at. Pool area smaller than a condo balcony.

Quote: Greasyjohn

They used to have a great 4oK promo at Casino Royale where they'd give you a $25 bonus if you got one. Made their 8/5 Bonus game about 102% +EV. I know I'm not telling many of you something new. They also had a coupon that gave you $40 if the quad was one of three hands, like 6,7 or 8. It was nice to get that first, and still be eligible for the $25-any-quad. (Usually quit after I got the quad.) But that was back when CR had 8/5 Bonus, and had the coupons. That all came to an end. I used to like staying there. Short walk to the car. Nice little computer room. Some hot working girls. Once they dinged my credit card for about $30. I asked them why and the girl on the phone looked into it and told me it was because there was a burn hole on the bedspread. I told her I didn't put it there. She said, "Yes you did."- her thinking being that I was the last person using the room before Fire Marshals noticed the burn hole. I told her that I don't smoke, and that I didn't use a curling iron in bed, those kinds of lines of logic. I said to her, "How do you know it wasn't there before I used the room?" And she said that they "Check the room after each use." I told her they can't check that thoroughly between each use to be sure the burn hole wasn't there. I told her that I've stayed there many times in the past without any incidents. Finally, after I was passed off to a manager the charge on my credit card was waived. You know, I wasn't upset when she said, "Yes, you did." She was young and not graceful in the art of suggesting that there weren't any viable alternatives to my guilt. Like, maybe there were seeds in the pot I was smoking in the room--those can pop and cause burn holes like the one found.

Nice frig in the room. Coffee maker all ready to go. Reggie, Elmer, at the player's club. Good inexpensive food court to use your comps at. Pool area smaller than a condo balcony.

Before that, for a long time they had a 4oak coupon 100 coin bonus up to $100 they had $1 9/6 job. Even got a RF a few times going for it.

That same coupon book you speak of had a very valuable coupon. They paid double your wheel of fortune bonus spin. They had a $5 denomination. I would take a few friends and I never lost playing that. Imagine hitting the progressive while playing for the coupon bonus. Talk about a 5754 situation.

They also had 2 to 1 on blackjacks (25 max I believe)

Quote: Greasyjohn

Like, maybe there were seeds in the pot I was smoking in the room--those can pop and cause burn holes like the one found.

Seeds? Sure sign of the low grade stuff.
Get the good stuff. No seeds.

Yes, I played many of those BJ pays 2:1 coupons for $25 min at their 6:5 game. Never understood the wheel of fortune coupon so never looked into it.

My days of self-conscious paranoia I'm a dumb f___ are past. (I forgot to quote the "no seeds get the good stuff" post.) Residual effect.

Quote: Greasyjohn

Yes, I played many of those BJ pays 2:1 coupons for $25 min at their 6:5 game. Never understood the wheel of fortune coupon so never looked into it. What's a 5754 situation?

I didn't know the exact value however it was in the hundreds. you'd have to figure out the the $5 denomination payback %, how often the bonus comes up and the average amount, to estimate the value. Aso you might not want to take the lowest bonus amount since the coupons are limited. It was low risk and I ran good, I never put in more than $400 before hitting the bonus. Fairly quick process.

A tax form used to take over the responsibility of W2G tax form someone from.

I didn't know the exact value however it was in the hundreds. you'd have to figure out the the $5 denomination payback %, how often the bonus comes up and the average amount, to estimate the value. Aso you might not want to take the lowest bonus amount since the coupons are limited. It was low risk and I ran good, I never put in more than $400 before hitting the bonus. Fairly quick process, In and out, usually 45 minutes.

A tax form used to take over the responsibility of W2G tax form someone from.

Quote: AxelWolf

When casinos used to run Double 4 of a kind promotions often(or 4 of a kind progressives), I always ran extremely good at the right time. I swear I averaged 3 per hr on slow machines. Fun, fun, fun on $1 Bonus poker deluxe, at $400 a pop and double pay. Now I'm a "sucker" for Double 4 of a kind promotions.

I remember playing a Sunday Football promotion at Dreamer's Bar where every 4 of a kind got to spin a mechanical wheel that had a $32 average. One Sunday I played the whole 3 and a half hours without one and I was playing fast. Very frustrating to get skunked on a $65 an hour promo on 7/5 BP. That promo lasted two football seasons and was very profitable for me.

I went a long trip with no 4Oaks... until my last day, and my last gambling $10 at a bar in the Frontier. Hit 4 7's, which happened to be the 4Oak of the day, so it paid double.

I know I did a fair amount of hands, given I spent 8 watching football one day while playing slowly. But I also suspect I may have played some hands badly... not that it would have been so bad to break up pairs very often.

i can't speak about JoB, as I really stick to FPDW, with some forays into DB & DDB. But easily 90%+ of my play is dw.

My last Royal was about 18 months ago, at The Palms. I had lost $100 on FPDW 25c. And decided to switch to 50c DDB to try to just catch even (or better) quickly and switch back to FPDW. Both games, same machine, both are full pay. Got lucky and was dealt a royal quickly on a 5 draw.


Since then I have easily over 140k hands of primarily FPDW with no RF. Lost $1200 ONE DAY at Red Rock playing 25c, 50c Loose Deuce, and the other deuce game they have (not standard fpdw), 50c DB, DDB, and iirc about $400 of the $1200 was $1 DB. Basically I tilted on full pay as it was really more than I could afford.

Since then I've not played Red Rock because they don't have regular FPDW, but rather the higher variance variations of lower net hourly ev too.

I've stuck FPDW, 1k hands per hour. Minor blips on the screen of $1 DDB when my time was limited, and wanted to just throw $100 at it to see if I caught lucky (once Aces for $800). I've played negative ev machines, knowingly, on a few bonus point days and these were 5 hand DW at 98.91% 25c or 5c. Guesstimate of 10k base points on neg ev machines.

Yet I may not actually be losing this year! I've been running WAY WAY ahead of the norm on catching 4 2's.

Today was luckbox day. I needed less than 2500 points for President level and knew I didn't have the money to really play FPDW and certainly no shot to earn that many pts there. So I played $40 @ 5c, 5 play, double on, DW. I was DEALT 4 ducks for a nice $500. But was still short a few hundred pts from president. So I played about 750 hands of 25c fpdw, losing $100. Then back to the nickle machine to finish the points. Netted $10 on that play and made president. Got my card, and parking permit card thingy. Tossed 1 last hundo in FPDW and popped 4 2's again, for a net $210 win there.

So, yes, we can run like dog crap and make no big hands for a day. Losing our asses even. And, we can even go damn long times w/o hitting the requisite RF's to be an expected winner. BUT, we can also run way ahead of the game in other areas, like my Deuces, and possibly stay ahead of the game over a period of time. 140k hands is very short term. Sure, frustrating to hit no RF's in that period too. Long term, 1m hands plus, I'm sure these things even out.

Quote: thecesspit

I went a long trip with no 4Oaks... until my last day, and my last gambling $10 at a bar in the Frontier. Hit 4 7's, which happened to be the 4Oak of the day, so it paid double.

I know I did a fair amount of hands, given I spent 8 watching football one day while playing slowly. But I also suspect I may have played some hands badly... not that it would have been so bad to break up pairs very often.

Are you sure it was the card of the day? Because I wasn't aware they ever had such a promotion(card of the day) if this was at the center bar, they had a progressive on 4 7s that got up fairly high. Often +ev