SDDB 100% loss rebate optimization, HELP!

Can some please help me with the following 100% loss rebate problem? A local casino is offering a 100% loss rebate up to $500. I am planning on taking advantage of this and would like to maximize my expected value. From what I can tell the best game offered to take advantage of this is $10(I will be playing 5 coins so $50 units) 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus poker paying back 99.69%. There are some other decent games but none, far as i know, with this top heavy of a pay structure and high payback. Please let me know if there might be a better game to play.
Ok so my question is.... what is my optimal quitting point and what are some of the practical quitting points? I have reviewed the wizards "100% rebate on video poker losses promotions" article on the wizard of odds site but this does not address an optimal quitting strategy for a bankroll as small as 10 units, 500/50=10, and does not address optimal quitting strategy for Super Double Double Bonus. Any help with this would be much appreciated. An exact answer would be great but I would also like an explanation of how to set up a simulation to figure this out so i can solve problems like this on my own in the future, teach a man to fish....

I think you're referring to River City Casino here. And yes, the best game in terms of maximizing the value of the actual loss rebate to my knowledge is 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus. But depending on your future intentions, this may not necessarily be the best game to play. When I did the loss promo, I was only aware of 8/5 Bonus there, so I played it for dollars. In terms of squeezing out return from the loss rebate, it is best to play higher denominations than dollars. BUT, if you are a local, you may not want to necessarily do that because if you create a decent amount of coin-in on your first day, they will likely send you other promotional offers. If you are nearby, you can collect on those.

From doing the loss promo in early 2012 and having about $2500 coin-in I was able to collect about $100 in mycash (which is double for food and they have good food choices) and maybe another $100 in additional free play in the next two months with weekly trips before I got cut off. My g/f was much more conservative about the loss promo and didn't rack up enough coin-in to get any additional offers. So if things go real bad at 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus, you could be in the same boat. They'll give you the loss reimbursement (in 2 installments), but nothing else unless you rack up a reasonable amount of coin-in.

If you're at the $10 level, and playing SDDB, I'd say quit when you either go broke or hit a quad ($2500)
1.) Insert five $100 bills
2.) Play HARD
3.) Hit quad or go broke (hope for Aces!)

Yeah a quad will be a common stopping point for sure. Not sure it's optimal, but I don't think I would have the balls to keep gambling $50/hand after hitting $2500.

Can you explain when you get your rebate money? You mentioned 2 installments can you givethe detailson that? Is it for new member's only ? Are locals elgibal

This is for table games too. You can get your rebate in the form of free play or table coupons, depending on what you play (I did tables). The coupons are for free bets AND they pay the coupon on a win, so you get the full value of the coupon (and can play on any bet in the casino). It's a good rebate offer.

Here is Wizard's page on 100% Video Poker Rebates:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/loss-rebate/

I don't know what game the OP's would be most closely related to, but the Optimal win goal for 8/5 Bonus Poker appears to be 190 Units ($1,900) with an expected win of 35.64 units and an 8.37% probability of success.

For 9/6 Double-Double Bonus, the Optimal win goal appears to be 320 credits ($3,200) with an expected win of 39.82 units and a roughly 8% probability of success.

On this page, Wizard points out that the expected win is almost nearly as high for far more probable results of about half of the winning goal, so a player may be well-advised to only play for half of the winning goal.

The charts can be seen with that link, but for example, on the 8-5 bonus, if you reduce the win target to 100 units, the expected win is 34.14 units (An expected win of only $15 less), but your probability of winning more than doubles skyrockets from 8.37% to 17.65%.

For the 9/6 Double-Double Bonus, if you set a win goal of 150 units, the expected win is 38.47 units (A bit under $30 less), but again, your probability of success soars from 8% to about 15%.

Whatever you select, and however you play it, I wish you positive Variance!!!

Thanks for all the replies. I am now more confused than ever bc I just noticed something strange. The wizard says to make the largest bets possible but from what I'm seeing this would result in a lower ev, if the charts are correct, for 9/6 double double bonus. Please review the below work and let me know if I missed something.

$500 roll. 25 credit roll =$20 units. The wizards charts suggest optimal expected win is 21.03 units. So..$20(21.03)=$420.6

Now...

$500 roll. 100 credit roll =$5 units. Optimal expected win =181.47 units. So.. $5(181.47)=$907.35

How can this be if I should be betting bigger? Did I miss something?

Plus probability of success jumps from 6.4% to 24.07%. Am I losing it?

I think you might have caught the Wizard in a formatting goof. None of the games should yield > 100% on the rebate.

Quote: AxelWolf

Can you explain when you get your rebate money? You mentioned 2 installments can you givethe detailson that? Is it for new member's only ? Are locals elgibal

I didn't pay attention to exact dates, but 1st installment (50%) came roughly 2 weeks after your first visit, and you had about 10 days to use it. 2nd installment (50%) is about 1 month after the initial visit with roughly another 10 days to use.

For new members to "mychoice" (Pinnacle's players' club) only. No geographic restrictions. Free play/"mycash" is electronically loaded. There are no Pinnacle properties in Vegas though.

Quote: tringlomane

I think you might have caught the Wizard in a formatting goof. None of the games should yield > 100% on the rebate.



I didn't pay attention to exact dates, but 1st installment (50%) came roughly 2 weeks after your first visit, and you had about 10 days to use it. 2nd installment (50%) is about 1 month after the initial visit with roughly another 10 days to use.

For new members to "mychoice" (Pinnacle's players' club) only. No geographic restrictions. Free play/"mycash" is electronically loaded. There are no Pinnacle properties in Vegas though.

So is the freeplay automatically loaded, meaning can I have a friend pick it up for me if I can't make it for the second installment?

Quote: ADVWNTD

Am I losing it?

No; I am.

I had made a clerical error on the 100-unit double double bonus table. Previously, here was the expected win, in units, according to number of units:

25: 21.03
50: 39.82
100: 181.47
200: 131.30
400: 223.02
800: 355.11

You can see the 100-unit case does not fit the pattern.

Based on a quick simulation, the expected profit for 100-units is 73.65 units. I'm going to run a longer simulation overnight.

I sincerely apologize for the error.

Quote: randomperson

So is the freeplay automatically loaded, meaning can I have a friend pick it up for me if I can't make it for the second installment?

Yes...and *coughs* yes.

Thanks for clarifying Wiz. No apologies necessary. With all the info you put out for us to learn from I think one small error is allowed. Thanks for all your help.

Quote: ADVWNTD

Thanks for clarifying Wiz. No apologies necessary. With all the info you put out for us to learn from I think one small error is allowed. Thanks for all your help.

Thanks for your forgiveness. However, I'm still mad at myself over it. I just updated with the table based on a simulation of running through that promotion 21 million times.

Thanks. Is there any chance I can get some help creating a table for a 10 credit broll for 8/5 Super Double Double Bonus? I would love to know how to set up a simulation so I can create charts on my own for whichever game/broll I need. Is there a book or concept I should look at? If explaining that is too time consuming can you create a chart? I really don't know where to begin with this.

Can someone tell me if i have this interpretation right.

The max rebate is $500.

If I could find a machine that was $1 a coin. ($5 for 5 coin). I should reference the 100 unit max loss table.

300 66.18 9.64%

expected win of 66 units $330.

If i could find a $2/coin machine. I should reference the 50 unit max loss table.

190 35.64 8.37%

expected win of 35.64 units $356.4


If I could find a $100 coin machine.. that would have the highest EV, correct?

(and i should stop somewhere around winning a little less than $500)

Quote: Mission146

Here is Wizard's page on 100% Video Poker Rebates:


I don't know what game the OP's would be most closely related to, but the Optimal win goal for 8/5 Bonus Poker appears to be 190 Units ($1,900) with an expected win of 35.64 units and an 8.37% probability of success.

For 9/6 Double-Double Bonus, the Optimal win goal appears to be 320 credits ($3,200) with an expected win of 39.82 units and a roughly 8% probability of success.

On this page, Wizard points out that the expected win is almost nearly as high for far more probable results of about half of the winning goal, so a player may be well-advised to only play for half of the winning goal.

The charts can be seen with that link, but for example, on the 8-5 bonus, if you reduce the win target to 100 units, the expected win is 34.14 units (An expected win of only $15 less), but your probability of winning more than doubles skyrockets from 8.37% to 17.65%.

For the 9/6 Double-Double Bonus, if you set a win goal of 150 units, the expected win is 38.47 units (A bit under $30 less), but again, your probability of success soars from 8% to about 15%.

Whatever you select, and however you play it, I wish you positive Variance!!!

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My apologies for missing what seems to be obvious to others, but I simply can't wrap my head around it. I've been to the Wizard of Odds link and studied it I've also read other posts about this. I just don't understand: if the win goal is 150 units, how could the expected win be 38.47 units? Wouldn't one either go broke, or get to the 150 units and leave? I could understand if the expected win was the average take of those who hit 150 units and those who went broke, but the 15% doesn't jive with that.

Thanks in advance for explaining!

Nick

Quote: Nickinaz

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My apologies for missing what seems to be obvious to others, but I simply can't wrap my head around it. I've been to the Wizard of Odds link and studied it (https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/loss-rebate/). I've also read other posts about this. I just don't understand: if the win goal is 150 units, how could the expected win be 38.47 units? Wouldn't one either go broke, or get to the 150 units and leave? I could understand if the expected win was the average take of those who hit 150 units and those who went broke, but the 15% doesn't jive with that.

Thanks in advance for explaining!

Nick

You overshoot the target most of the time.

Aaaandd that was obvious. I just couldn't see it. Thanks.

Nick

Unfortunately this promo is no longer valid at River City. Was a nice deal while it lasted. Looks like it's still valid for new mychoice members at Belterra in Indiana.

Quote: tringlomane

Unfortunately this promo is no longer valid at River City. Was a nice deal while it lasted. Looks like it's still valid for new mychoice members at Belterra in Indiana.

When do you get the rebate? I see its over 2 pickups whats the lag time between pick ups?

Quote: AxelWolf

When do you get the rebate? I see its over 2 pickups whats the lag time between pick ups?

Lag time was roughly 10 days each I think. 10 days to get the mailer and 10 day windows for each installment. Don't quote me in that though. I did it over two years ago.