rocketman
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November 19th, 2010 at 6:28:39 PM permalink
Ive tried googling this myself, but all of the pages I've found get way over my head in a hurry. Put it to you this way, even terms like "house edge" are greek to me.

The only thing I've been able to piece together is if I take the odds on 6 or 8, I want to do it in multiples of 6.

1. What exactly does it mean to take odds in craps?

2. I tend to play dont come / dont pass. Can I take odds in either one of these situations?

3. What is the payout for taking odds?
focd
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November 19th, 2010 at 7:11:34 PM permalink
If you take odds, it is usually in multiples of 5 for the 6 and the 8 if the table offers 345 odds. Taking odds is not the same as laying odds. Taking odds means you are playing the dos and laying odds means you are playing the don'ts. The payouts for odds depends on the point and if you are taking or laying odds.
Doc
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November 19th, 2010 at 7:27:55 PM permalink
Taking things one at a time (and expanding on focd's post):

"The only thing I've been able to piece together is if I take the odds on 6 or 8, I want to do it in multiples of 6. "

Nope. You may have two types of bets confused. Place bets on 6 or 8 should be in multiples of 6. Odds bets on 6 or 8 should be in multiples of 5. (Be sure to read my revision of this answer below.)

"1. What exactly does it mean to take odds in craps?"

When you have made a bet on the pass line, the don't-pass line, the come, or the don't-come (Are you familiar with those bets?) and a point number is established, you are then allowed to increase your wager on that number by an amount called the "free odds" bet, or simply "odds". If the established number wins (or loses if you were playing the don't), then your base bet pays off at even money (one to one). The amount you wagered as free odds pays off also, but that pays off at a rate equal to the likelihood that the wager would have lost. Thus, there is no advantage that the house has over the player on the free odds bet (and vice versa), even though they have an advantage (because of the payout rate) on any of the line bets. Because the house does not have an advantage on the odds wagers, they limit the amount you can bet there, generally as a multiple of your line bet.

"2. I tend to play dont come / dont pass. Can I take odds in either one of these situations?"

Yes. Since, once the point is established, the don't bets are more likely to win than to lose, the payout on the free odds wager when you do win (i.e., the number loses) is less than one to one. It is still at a rate that makes the bet no advantage to either the house or the player.

"3. What is the payout for taking odds?"

It depends on the point. Pass and come bet odds on points of 4 or 10 pay at a rate of 2 to 1, points of 5 or 9 at 3 to 2, and points of 6 or 8 at 6 to 5 (which is why they should be in multiples of 5). Odds on the don'ts pay at the inverse of these rates: 1 to 2, 2 to 3, and 5 to 6 (which, revising my earlier statement, means you should indeed place don't odds in multiples of 6 for points of 6 or 8 -- I was thinking of pass/come).
ahiromu
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November 19th, 2010 at 7:32:26 PM permalink
WizardCraps

Read that through and through, but I'll answer your questions.

1. Taking odds is the entire reason anyone (smart) bets on the pass line in the first place. Betting on the pass line gives you the "right" to one of the only true odds bets in the casino. Let's say you put down $5 on the PL and the point becomes 4. Then you put $15 behind your PL bet as the odds. If the point of 4 is rolled again you are paid 2 to 1 on your odds bet and 1 to 1 on the PL bet. That 2 to 1 is true odds... in other words zero house advantage. If you didn't understand anything else, just know that it's the best bet you can make in the casino.

1.1. Place bets for the 6 or 8 need to be in a multiple of 6 since they pay 7 to 6. Go to that website for more information.

2. You can put odds on the wrong side of the game... except that it pays less than 1 to 1. Let's take odds on that 4 again, but the other way around. It pays 1 to 2 so... if you have $30 on the odds for a 4 then you are paid a winnings of $15. With the bets here paying less than 1 to 1 a lot of people refuse but in the end it's still the best bet in the casino.

3. Please just go over the original website I gave you.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
7winner
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November 19th, 2010 at 8:00:47 PM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

2. You can put odds on the wrong side of the game... except that it pays less than 1 to 1. Let's take odds on that 4 again, but the other way around. It pays 1 to 2 so... if you have $30 on the odds for a 4 then you are paid a winnings of $15. With the bets here paying less than 1 to 1 a lot of people refuse but in the end it's still the best bet in the casino.


The proper term for odds on the don't pass or don't come is "laying the odds".
Since the bet now has a players advantage once a point is established you are betting with the favorite, just like on a sports bet. One must always risk more to win less when betting on a favorite sports team.

Lay Odds on the 4&10 always pay 1 to 2. Every 2 you bet returns 1. Because the 7 has a BIG advantage over the 4 or 10.
Lay Odds on the 5&9 always pay 2 to 3. Every 3 you bet returns 2.
Lay Odds on the 6&8 always pay 5 to 6. Every 6 you bet returns 5.

Never remove a don't pass or don't come bet.
7 winner chicken dinner!
rocketman
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November 19th, 2010 at 9:09:52 PM permalink
Thank you everyone for your help.

Would it always be to my advantage to lay the odds if I bet Dont come/ dont pass? Or should I reserve it for the 4 and 10?
And if that's true, should I only take the odds on the come/pass on a 6 and 8?

I'm not talking in terms of house edge (whatever that means). I'm talking in terms of letting my money last me. I usually bet 5 or 10 dollars on the donts, which means until now, Ive been aiming for even money.

Also, I'm sorry to ask this again, but all those numbers are swimming in my head. If I take the odds, do I just double my bet, regardless of number? How high can I go?

I know it gets a bit more complicated on laying, but it sounds like multiples of 6 would be the safest.
Doc
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November 19th, 2010 at 9:33:01 PM permalink
What you should do depends upon your objectives.

Laying odds (or taking odds on the pass/come) will have no effect at all on your long-term expected win (actually an expected loss), measured in dollars. There is no advantage for either you or the casino on the odds wager. However, you will be placing a higher portion of your wagers on a bet that has no house advantage, so you will improve your expected win (reduce your expected loss), when this is expressed as a percentage of the total amount of money you wager. If you plan to place the same total amount of money at risk either way, then it is best (in terms of expected average outcome) to place as much of your betting on the free odds bet as the casino will allow.

There is of course another side of this issue (just to make the decision more difficult). Adding odds bets increases the volatility of your bank balance, i.e., it increases the variance of the possible actual outcomes for individual gambling sessions. If things turn out that you would win money without the odds bets, then you would win even more by having the odds bets; if they turn out that you would lose money without the odds bets, then you would lose even more money by having them. Thus, your tolerance for possible big fluctuations becomes a decision factor. Without any variance at all, you are absolutely certain to lose at any game with a house advantage -- variance is your only hope for coming out ahead -- but variance is also the reason that you might lose a lot more than the expected average rate.

What you should do depends a bit on your personality.

If you do decide to take/lay odds, the maximum amount that you can wager is determined by the rules for the particular casino. The limits are usually expressed in terms of the maximum amount of odds you could take on a pass/come bet. If you are betting the don't, this is the maximum amount that you can win by laying odds. Some casinos limit you to "single odds" meaning taking odds equal to your pass/come bet. Others offer "double odds."

In Las Vegas and many other places, it is common to offer "3x-4x-5x" odds, meaning pass line bets are limited to three times the pass bet if the point is 4 or 10, four times if the point is 5 or 9, and five times if the point is 6 or 8. These all lead to pass odds paying out 6 times the pass bet (if it wins). If you are betting the don't, laying 6x odds will result in payouts of 3x-4x-5x depending on the point, if the point loses.

There are other casinos that limit pass/come odds to 5x or 10x or 20x or even 100x. At those places, you could lay odds on the don't that would win this multiple of the don't bet.

Yes, the numbers can get a little complicated.
mkl654321
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November 20th, 2010 at 4:29:50 AM permalink
Quote: rocketman

Would it always be to my advantage to lay the odds if I bet Dont come/ dont pass? Or should I reserve it for the 4 and 10?
And if that's true, should I only take the odds on the come/pass on a 6 and 8?



It would be neither to your advantage or your disadvantage to lay odds on Don't bets, regardless of the particular number involved. The sum result of all odds bets you make will be +0; neither positive nor negative expectation. So in terms of overall results, your odds bets won't matter in the long run.

However, if you have a fixed amount you are going to wager per hand/roll/day/week/month/millenium, then making the greatest possible portion of that amount be odds bets will produce the best outcome.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Martin
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November 20th, 2010 at 5:28:27 AM permalink
Much of what has been written here is very good advice. But let me tell you about a game I was in a couple of months ago at Bally's AC.

I'm a dark sider by nature (just a contrarian in all things). Shooter lights up a 4 and I lay 5X on a $10 bet ($100). Shooter makes the 4 two rolls later. I lose. He returns with a 10 and I lay 5X again on a $10 bet - nobody makes a 10 after a 4 - this guy does. I break my cardinal rule (never let one shooter beat you more than twice) and the guy puts up another 4. Bally's has 10X odds on the table so I lay $200 against the dime - you guessed it, shooter makes the 4. My head is spinning, I'm pissed, I'm praying to the dark side and don't even get my bet down before he sets a 4 - again! Now the guy has won on a 4, a 10, and a 4 what are the odds? I've got a 98% chance of winning this bet. I lay the point for $400 with a dime juice. It took 10 more rolls but he hits the 4. Now the record is 4, 10, 4, and 4 and I'm numb.

Shooter comes with a 6 - I don't bother - very next roll - 7 out.

The point being since the odds are even I prefer to lay the 6/8 than a 4/10 - the volatility on the outside numbers will kill you.
teddys
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November 20th, 2010 at 7:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

Now the guy has won on a 4, a 10, and a 4 what are the odds? I've got a 98% chance of winning this bet.

Nope. You're a 2 to 1 favorite to win that bet. Gambler's Fallacy.

By the way, nice sig!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Martin
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November 20th, 2010 at 8:27:00 AM permalink
That is correct it a 4 or a 10 is always 2 to 1 in my favor or 66% give or take a couple.

However in any sequence of events the probability of winning all the events is the culmination of all the probabilities of winning each event individually - e.g. if I asked you what is the correct odds of my hitting all four in a contiguous sequence of 4's and 10's (before I began to roll it) you would say 98% against. Not very useful but still interesting and simply meant to prove that although there is a lot in your favor against the 4 or 10 you probably need to exercise some caution.


And back at you for your sig.
guido111
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November 20th, 2010 at 9:29:34 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

e.g. if I asked you what is the correct odds of my hitting all four in a contiguous sequence of 4's and 10's (before I began to roll it) you would say 98% against.


And a 1 in 81 chance of that happening is NOT a very small number.

4 points of 4s and 10s before a 7...(1/3)^4 = 1/81 that magical fraction! 0.0123456790

against it happening...80/81 that other magical fraction! 0.987654321

Taking or laying the odds in Craps, while theoretically adds 0 to your expected loss, adds bankroll volatility, meaning you can expect larger swings to the downside as well as the up side.
And it does nothing to increase your chances of winning your bet.
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 9:52:03 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

Much of what has been written here is very good advice. But let me tell you about a game I was in a couple of months ago at Bally's AC.

I'm a dark sider by nature (just a contrarian in all things). Shooter lights up a 4 and I lay 5X on a $10 bet ($100). Shooter makes the 4 two rolls later. I lose. He returns with a 10 and I lay 5X again on a $10 bet - nobody makes a 10 after a 4 - this guy does. I break my cardinal rule (never let one shooter beat you more than twice) and the guy puts up another 4. Bally's has 10X odds on the table so I lay $200 against the dime - you guessed it, shooter makes the 4. My head is spinning, I'm pissed, I'm praying to the dark side and don't even get my bet down before he sets a 4 - again! Now the guy has won on a 4, a 10, and a 4 what are the odds? I've got a 98% chance of winning this bet.



Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt!!!! It's the Gambler's Fallacy, raising its ugly head! Maybe you don't really mean that (I hope). You've really got a 66.7% chance of winning it, just like on those other outside numbers.

Quote: Martin

The point being since the odds are even I prefer to lay the 6/8 than a 4/10 - the volatility on the outside numbers will kill you.



Actually, you have a much better chance of winning on the 4/10, but since you lay two to win one, any losing streak can kill you.
Horror stories like this should be viewed carefully, understanding that they can happen, but are relatively unlikely.
My only experience with playing the dark side (actually, I played don't come) turned out quite well. I was lucky to avoid any comeout losses (maybe one) and won lots of points.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 9:54:21 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

WizardCraps

Read that through and through, but I'll answer your questions.

1. Taking odds is the entire reason anyone (smart) bets on the pass line in the first place.



I have to disagree with this blanket statement. The pass line, by itself, is still a good bet for many people - low HA and low volatility. Keeps you in the game.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:02:09 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

It would be neither to your advantage or your disadvantage to lay odds on Don't bets, regardless of the particular number involved. The sum result of all odds bets you make will be +0; neither positive nor negative expectation. So in terms of overall results, your odds bets won't matter in the long run.



Once again, expectation is not results. The sum result of all the odds bets you make is extremely, extremely unlikely to be zero, even if you play for years.

Quote: mkl654321

However, if you have a fixed amount you are going to wager per hand/roll/day/week/month/millenium, then making the greatest possible portion of that amount be odds bets will produce the best outcome.



"Shifitng" money from the line bets to odds bets reduces one's expected loss, but there is absolutely no guarantee it will produces the best outcome. It produces a distribution of possible outcomes that is much wider, so that your own results may be better, much better, worse or much worse. This is true even on a long-term basis, as that concept relates to an individual player. That is, an individual player's "long term" is not the casino's "long term".
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

That is correct it a 4 or a 10 is always 2 to 1 in my favor or 66% give or take a couple.

However in any sequence of events the probability of winning all the events is the culmination of all the probabilities of winning each event individually - e.g. if I asked you what is the correct odds of my hitting all four in a contiguous sequence of 4's and 10's (before I began to roll it) you would say 98% against. Not very useful but still interesting



Not only "not very useful", but logically very dangerous, as many people do not understand the difference between the probability of a series of events BEFORE they series starts and the CHANGING probabilities as the series unfolds. See my blog on this subject at https://wizardofvegas.com/member/goatcabin/blog/#post16.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Martin
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November 20th, 2010 at 12:40:58 PM permalink
And where is the "danger" - the one thing I know as an immutable fact - eventually everyone seven's out - some quicker than others. And I believe that there has to be a function that describes this immutable fact. A sequence of probabilities with an ever increasing percentage will never reach 1 (infinity - an impossible state) therefore it must do the possible and come to an end - eventually.
mkl654321
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November 20th, 2010 at 12:52:40 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

Once again, expectation is not results. The sum result of all the odds bets you make is extremely, extremely unlikely to be zero, even if you play for years.
"Shifitng" money from the line bets to odds bets reduces one's expected loss, but there is absolutely no guarantee it will produces the best outcome. It produces a distribution of possible outcomes that is much wider, so that your own results may be better, much better, worse or much worse. This is true even on a long-term basis, as that concept relates to an individual player. That is, an individual player's "long term" is not the casino's "long term".
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA



Alan, I think you know by now that I understand the Law of Large Numbers, and that results do not necessarily equal expectation. I also think you know that when I talk about what "WILL" happen, I refer to the long term. In the long term, what will happen approaches what "should" happen.

Where you and I differ is in perception. WHEN TRYING TO EVALUATE A BETTING STRATEGY, you should assume that results will be equal to expectation. Obviously, the sum of all your odds bets will almost never be exactly zero. BUT YOU SHOULD ASSUME THAT, NONETHELESS, when parsing out a nethod for making those and other bets.

You should also know that I realize that neutral EV bets can still affect variance. But since, presumably, the most pleasurable outcome for the player would be that he wins, which would pretty much require some variance to be possible, making those neutral EV bets be as large a percentage of your overall action as possible can be the best way to "purchase" variance.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
ElectricDreams
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November 20th, 2010 at 12:54:15 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

And where is the "danger" - the one thing I know as an immutable fact - eventually everyone seven's out - some quicker than others. And I believe that there has to be a function that describes this immutable fact. A sequence of probabilities with an ever increasing percentage will never reach 1 (infinity - an impossible state) therefore it must do the possible and come to an end - eventually.



Sure, but who knows how many points a person will make before they do that inevitable 7 out? There was a thread that was recently talking about the world record craps roll - 154 rolls, over more than four hours.

Can you imagine being a don't bettor on that table, using the idea that "eventually she'll seven out"? You would have lost your bankroll many, many times over.

Yes, eventually everyone sevens out, but that doesn't "help" a don't bettor in the slightest. Gambler's Fallacy.
FleaStiff
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November 20th, 2010 at 2:51:22 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

and come to an end - eventually.

Yep. Even at the Borgata in Atlantic City, that almost four hour roll eventually did end. Since they had all come from an introductory lesson, i doubt anyone there made any DontCome bets but they would all surely have been knocked down if they had despite there having to be a Seven coming along sometime. And had I been there... I would have been the one making those Dont Come bets in the sure and certain belief that the Seven was just around the corner.
I was once at a table where the whole darn crew was echoing Down Behind so as to give me a hint to stop staying on the Dark Side. I was just darn sleepy to heed their advice.
focd
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November 20th, 2010 at 6:43:18 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

4 points of 4s and 10s before a 7...(1/3)^4 = 1/81 that magical fraction! 0.0123456790


Quick Question - Is this really 1 in 81 or 1 in 81 of a set of 4 rolls?
guido111
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November 20th, 2010 at 6:56:16 PM permalink
Quote: focd

Quick Question - Is this really 1 in 81 or 1 in 81 of a set of 4 rolls?


good question. I should have made that more clear.
since we are talking about 4 points
of 4s or 10s before a 7

it would be 1 in 81 sets of 4 points
Martin
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November 21st, 2010 at 8:26:15 AM permalink
Years ago after noticing a character flaw which kept insisting that the "seven is coming soon" I made an immutable rule - never allow any one player in any one hand beat you more than twice.

I have found that whenever I stick to this rule I make money and whenever I deviate from it I lose money. But my buy-in is always my get away number so if I lose the buy-in I take a break.

When I first began the game I watched a very-high-roller play the don't side and he only let any one shooter beat him once. I was standing beside him and asked him why he did that since the "seven was coming."

He said, "In my experience every monster roll starts with a win."
goatcabin
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November 21st, 2010 at 10:45:57 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

And where is the "danger" - the one thing I know as an immutable fact - eventually everyone seven's out - some quicker than others. And I believe that there has to be a function that describes this immutable fact. A sequence of probabilities with an ever increasing percentage will never reach 1 (infinity - an impossible state) therefore it must do the possible and come to an end - eventually.



In this situation you are talking about, there is no "ever increasing percentage" as you go through the events. The next event, i.e. the seven, is no more probably after twenty non-sevens than after another seven, nor any less. So, one "danger" is simply believing something that isn't true. Another "danger" is that a person, incorrectly believing that the seven becomes more likely with each non-seven roll, will keep increasing his/her bets in that erroneous belief.

If you don't want to get beaten more than twice by the same shooter, that's fine, but, of course, you are going to miss some wins that way, too.

The "function that describes this immutable fact" is this: p(7) = 1/6
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 21st, 2010 at 11:02:41 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Alan, I think you know by now that I understand the Law of Large Numbers, and that results do not necessarily equal expectation. I also think you know that when I talk about what "WILL" happen, I refer to the long term. In the long term, what will happen approaches what "should" happen.



I quote you:
"The sum result of all odds bets you make will be +0; neither positive nor negative expectation. So in terms of overall results, your odds bets won't matter in the long run."

Now, you are responding to someone who is asking for information about taking odds, so I think you should be more careful in your wording. This player's "long term" is not the casino's long term. So, the poster's odds bets will very likely matter very much.

Quote: mkl654321

Where you and I differ is in perception. WHEN TRYING TO EVALUATE A BETTING STRATEGY, you should assume that results will be equal to expectation. Obviously, the sum of all your odds bets will almost never be exactly zero. BUT YOU SHOULD ASSUME THAT, NONETHELESS, when parsing out a nethod for making those and other bets.



I disagree. This is not a very useful approach to evaluating a betting strategy. If you compare betting the passline without odds to betting the passline and taking 10X odds, they each have exactly the same ev. However, that tells you very little about the gambling experience one or the other can expect, even for a lifetime's play. It certainly tells you almost nothing about what sort of bankroll you should take to the table if you would like to play for a couple of hours.

Quote: mkl654321

You should also know that I realize that neutral EV bets can still affect variance. But since, presumably, the most pleasurable outcome for the player would be that he wins, which would pretty much require some variance to be possible, making those neutral EV bets be as large a percentage of your overall action as possible can be the best way to "purchase" variance.



I agree with this statement 100%. For myself, I believe in minimizing the amount of money placed on the flat line bet(s), allocating more to the odds bets, up to a level that still gives me only a small probability of busting my bankroll before I'm ready to stop playing.

I fully understand that sessions are only part of my own, personal "long term", but I also understand that, once a session is complete, it is "in the bank" and has no effect on the probabilities for my next session. IOW, just because I have a winning session, I am no more likely to lose the next time.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 21st, 2010 at 11:06:29 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

Years ago after noticing a character flaw which kept insisting that the "seven is coming soon" I made an immutable rule - never allow any one player in any one hand beat you more than twice.



If you believed that the seven was becoming more likely, that was a logic flaw, not a character flaw.


Quote: Martin

When I first began the game I watched a very-high-roller play the don't side and he only let any one shooter beat him once. I was standing beside him and asked him why he did that since the "seven was coming."

He said, "In my experience every monster roll starts with a win."



That is like the trivial solution to an equation. Obviously, if we ignore comeout decisions, any roll that starts with a loss (on a point) is OVER. Duh!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
mkl654321
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November 21st, 2010 at 4:16:56 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

I disagree. This is not a very useful approach to evaluating a betting strategy. If you compare betting the passline without odds to betting the passline and taking 10X odds, they each have exactly the same ev. However, that tells you very little about the gambling experience one or the other can expect, even for a lifetime's play. It certainly tells you almost nothing about what sort of bankroll you should take to the table if you would like to play for a couple of hours.



Of course not, but where would you assume the results would fall, if not on the mean? Some other place to the left or the right?

Now, I can see where it might not be practical to evaluate the cost of buying a lottery ticket as -$0.40 even though that is the mean result. But craps bets are iterated multiple times, even in a short session.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
goatcabin
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November 22nd, 2010 at 12:12:30 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Of course not, but where would you assume the results would fall, if not on the mean? Some other place to the left or the right?



I don't think it's about "assuming"; it's about figuring out the distribution of possible results and their probabilities. If this poster assumes his odds bets are going to net to zero, he's likely to get a pretty big surprise! OTOH, if he runs a sim for 10,000 two-hour sessions and finds that 4700 of them come out ahead, 1000 break even and the other 5200 lose, and he busts his bankroll 1500 times and wins $400 1200 times, etc. etc., he has a pretty good idea what to expect, but he's not assuming any outcome. This is the same kind of information as we have about the next dice roll - we know the probability distribution, but not the next result, even though the weighted average of dice outcomes is 7.0.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Martin
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November 22nd, 2010 at 12:38:03 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

If you believed that the seven was becoming more likely, that was a logic flaw, not a character flaw.

That is like the trivial solution to an equation. Obviously, if we ignore comeout decisions, any roll that starts with a loss (on a point) is OVER. Duh!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA




I know the logic - probably as well as you - therefore it is a flaw of character - think about it.

Point being - he never chased - I do but only briefly. I'll miss some wins but my bankroll won't be eaten up by a 4-hour roll or a 15-minute one either. He who lives to run away - etc, etc, etc.

My last words on this thread - have fun, learn the rules of the game and don't go in over your head, but most importantly - have fun.
focd
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November 28th, 2010 at 11:14:42 PM permalink
Quote: rocketman

Ive tried googling this myself, but all of the pages I've found get way over my head in a hurry.
I tend to play dont come / dont pass. Can I take odds in either one of these situations?


I have a question as to what is the officially correct term to use when playing the don't come. After my don't come bet travels to a point, I tell the dealer I want 12 dollar odds on the point of 8, for instance. The dealer corrects me by saying, "Lay the 8 you mean?" So why do they use the term lay? I mean I am laying odds but it's not the same as a lay bet. This happened in Reno. I play in CA all the time and I always call those "odds". So why do they say this? Is this a Reno thing?
ElectricDreams
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November 28th, 2010 at 11:35:23 PM permalink
Quote: focd

I have a question as to what is the officially correct term to use when playing the don't come. After my don't come bet travels to a point, I tell the dealer I want 12 dollar odds on the point of 8, for instance. The dealer corrects me by saying, "Lay the 8 you mean?" So why do they use the term lay? I mean I am laying odds but it's not the same as a lay bet. This happened in Reno. I play in CA all the time and I always call those "odds". So why do they say this? Is this a Reno thing?



I think the full phrase would be "lay odds on the eight", but to simple things and keep bets straight people and dealers often just say "lay eight". In a similar vein, I believe the come/pass line version is actually called "taking odds on the eight", but again people usually just say "odds".

I think this is how it goes:

Laying odds --> taking the advantage "side" of a bet for a smaller payout; i.e. laying odds on the four means that for every 2 units bet you win one.

Taking odds --> taking the disadvantage "side" of the bet for a bigger payout i.e. taking odds on the four means that for every 1 unit bet you win two.

So yes, laying odds is a different bet than a lay bet, but they're both on the same "side" of the odds for a bet so they're both called "laying odds".

Hopefully that made sense.
focd
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November 28th, 2010 at 11:40:31 PM permalink
Which is why I don't really like it. Why can't they just call it odds because it is laying odds. You never hear anyone go "take the 8 for 12". I don't really like using the term lay because it sounds like place.
FleaStiff
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November 29th, 2010 at 1:30:56 AM permalink
Quote: focd

Which is why I don't really like it. Why can't they just call it odds because it is laying odds. You never hear anyone go "take the 8 for 12". I don't really like using the term lay because it sounds like place.


Heck, I'm always confused on this...

First of all... Lay and Place do not sound at all the same, even in the frenzied activity of a jammed up game.

The correct terminology in all gambling, not just craps is that you:

TAKE the odds on the underdog
and
LAY the odds on the favorite.

Sports betting, craps .. anything...
Its TAKE the underdog
and LAY the favorite.

If its craps that you are playing, there is sort of what a slot machine player would call "a bonus round". Its not actually a term used in craps but that is what is happening.

When the come out roll is about to be made, you get your LINE bets down and you choose whether you want PASSline or DONTPASSLine.
The comeout roll either WINS or it LOSES. If it does neither, then you qualify for the "bonus round" in which you now have your line bet's ultimate win or loss dependent upon succeeeding throws of the dice in a bonus round of "The-POINT Versus The-Seven".
AT ALL TIMES, the Seven is the most likely to be rolled. Therefore the SEVEN is the FAVORITE and ALL point numbers are the underdogs. You can think of the SIX or Eight as being strong contenders, but they are still the underdogs, you can think of the FOUR and the TEN as being weak contenders and considerably more of an underdog, but they are definitely the underdogs. The SEVEN is the FAVORITE.
So... if your bet was on the passline,,, when you enter into this fictitiously-named Bonus Round... your passline bet is now on the POINT, which no matter what the actual point number is, has to be the UNDERDOG. THEREFORE you are TAKING odds.
If your bet was on the DONTPASS, your bet is on the SEVEN being rolled before the POINT number is rolled, the SEVEN is the FAVORITE so you are therefore LAYING odds on it.

I think the confusing thing is that sometimes instead of making an odds bet, the dealer is actually givning you a LAY bet in lieu of an ODDS Bet. If he is doing this it at a table where it is an advantage to you to make a LAY BET rather than to have an ODDS BEt due to the amounts involved.

Confusing???
Yeah, particularly after my explanation of it! Anyway, there really is not "a bonus round" but that's a good way of merely looking at it, don't use the term "bonus round" at the craps table or the dealers will look at you kinda weird as if you belonged somewhere over at the slot machines. Just think of it that way silently, since that is really what is happening: The SEVEN is ALWAYS the most likely to be rolled, so it is the FAVORITE. If you are betting on the POINT, you are betting the underdog and therefore are TAKING the odds that the "Bookie" (Casino) is offering, whereas if you are betting on the Favorite, you are LAYING the odds that the "Bookie" (Casino) is offering.
focd
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November 29th, 2010 at 1:37:50 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

First of all... Lay and Place do not sound at all the same, even in the frenzied activity of a jammed up game.


Not true. Puh-lay-s and lay sound very similar
either way I'm not confused by how laying and taking works
I'm just wondering why they don't call it odds period whether you take or lay odds
if taking odds simply can be stated as odds
then why can't laying odds simply be stated as odds also?
when you say lay, some dealers could mistaken it as a place bet since the incriments are also 6 at a busy table
believe me on this one
so just curious... what do people usually say when they play the Don't Come? Do they say odds for the 8 or do they say lay the 8 or do they say lay odds for the 8?
just want to know
I personally don't like to use the word lay as it really isn't a lay bet and dealers can confuse it as a place bet
FleaStiff
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November 29th, 2010 at 2:22:41 AM permalink
>If you compare betting the passline without odds to betting the passline and taking 10X odds, they each have exactly the same ev.
Yes.
>However, that tells you very little about the gambling experience one or the other can expect, even for a lifetime's play.
Perhaps. NO player is at the tables for a lifetime and in these days of Hard Times and Bond=Owners Takeovers, not even the casino is assured of a lifetime at owning the tables.

>It certainly tells you almost nothing about what sort of bankroll you should take to the table
>if you would like to play for a couple of hours.
What sort of a bankroll is determined by a Gamblers Ruin table which is usually presented at a 90 percent Avoidance of Ruin based upon Perfect Basic Strategy without any player or dealer mistakes or tips to dealers or waitresses. This is ofcourse a theoretical or ideal table, not a table that presents real world or actual requirements. Mistakes will always take place, it is hoped that you will tip that poor cocktail waitress even if she is bringing you a bottle of water or a cup of coffee, it is hoped that you will tip the dealers even they are not so great and you happen to be losing, but most of all... few people totally and completely limit themselves to Basic Strategy. That is why that darned Stick Man or Stick Chick is calling out exhortations to the players to make those "sucky" center bets. Such temptations exist and most players fall prey to them at some time. Yet irrespective of these factors (mistakes, tips, non-Basic Strategy bets) the determination of what bankroll to bring to the table is best answered by saying: LARGE. This is simply because the game is called Banked Craps and its the casino that has that inexhaustible Bank. The closer you can match that bank, the better off you will be when that Law of Large Numbers and Lady Variance frown on you.

>You should also know that I realize that neutral EV bets can still affect variance.
Yes, the dollar amount is affected and therefore the bankroll is affected.
>making those neutral EV bets be as large a percentage of your overall action as possible can be the best way
Yes. Particularly if Lady Luck smiles upon you for those first few rolls. After that you can afford to be more tolerant of her sudden frowns.

>I believe in minimizing the amount of money placed on the flat line bet(s), allocating more to the odds bets.
You ain't gonna get no arguments there! Every dealer, every mathematician, every author will all tell you the same thing.
When you make your flat bet you are not grasping that stick in the middle, you are holding the short end of the stick.
When you make your odds bet the casino is letting you grasp that stick exactly in the middle so it is "fair" from a mathematical point of view. No arguments there. It will have an effect on your bankroll and therefore on your staying power... but YOUR staying power is always going to be less than the casino's staying power. And if in offering you those "fair bets" it turns out that the casino has extended your staying power, they don't much care... they know you ain't ever going to stay at the tables longer than they will.

>I fully understand that sessions are only part of my own, personal "long term",
True but the primary effect of any session for a player is on his SHORT TERM.

> but I also understand that, once a session is complete it has no effect on the probabilities for my next session.
>just because I have a winning session, I am no more likely to lose the next time.
True. Nor are you more likely to win the next time. And for this the term ''session'' is any slice of time that you select. Day, Hour, ... down to one roll. It is always going to be an effect on your bankroll but not the probabilities of the next roll of the dice.

No one would ever recommend walking up to a table with just the table minimum and making a bet with no additional bankroll available to you... but it is possible to do that and wind up Breaking The Bank... but it sure ain't too likely to happen. The Players may dream of it, but the casino never has any nightmares about it.
FleaStiff
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November 29th, 2010 at 3:15:02 AM permalink
>I'm just wondering why they don't call it odds period whether you take or lay odds
>if taking odds simply can be stated as odds
>then why can't laying odds simply be stated as odds also?
It can and it often is... I usually but my money out in the Come Area and say to the dealer "Odds on my Four" or whatever the number is. If I have a ComeBet that has just travelled to the Four and I plunk down some chips and say "odds on my Four" ... I don't have to be precise and say anything about TAKING odds on my four, I can just say "odds on my four". If I happened to have just made a DontCome Bet that has now travelled to a position on the table Behind the Four.. and I put a stack of chips out in the Come Area and tell the dealer "Odds on my Four"... he knows how to position it and I don't have to be precise and say anything about Laying the odds on the four. Indeed, I can just say "odds" ... and he will or should know what I'm talking about.
No dealer should be confused on this issue, not even at a break-in joint.

>when you say lay, some dealers could mistaken it as a place bet since the incriments are also 6 at a busy table
NO. Something is wrong here. I won't belabor the issue but "place" and "lay" do not sound the same.
And I sure don't understand what you are talking about when you say "the increments are also 6".
If you have a six dollar place bet on the SIX or the EIGHT then neither that Place Bet nor any Increments you make on it are referred to as ODDS. If you want to increase your Place Bet from six dollars to twelve dollars, you are PRESSING your bet but you are not putting odds on it, taking odds on it or laying odds on it. It is a Press... and increase in your bet and it ain't got nuttin' at all to do with an odds bet and you don't use the word odds when doing it.

>so just curious... what do people usually say when they play the Don't Come?
> Do they say odds for the 8 or do they say lay the 8 or do they say lay odds for the 8?
They say whatever they darn well please and if there is any confusion, its up to the dealer and the box to work it out and let the player know he is being ambiguous or incorrect in some manner. Its like asking "is this elevator going up" ... there will always be some jerk who wants to be very precise and say... "no, its neither going up nor down, its stopped, that is why you are getting on it".
Usually a Don't Come player will merely say "Odds on my xxxxx" as he plunks the stack of chips down in the Come Area or wherever the dealer wants it and the dealer knows what to do with it. The player will watch that stack and make sure it gets positioned correctly, the dealer will verbally acknowledge if he wishes to and depending on what his box and floor insist be done.

>I personally don't like to use the word lay as dealers can confuse it as a place bet
Nope. i don't think that is at all likely to happen... but don't let it worry you. Its your money and you do and say what you want unless the dealer or box speak to you about it for some reason.
I once heard some neophyte player say "Dress" and the Dealer finally corrected him and told him the word is PRESS, NOT DRESS. Now the neophyte was a bit of a jerk and the dealer was a bit pissed off for other reasons at the time since there had just been a worse jerk at the table, but in general you can do and say whatever you choose and the dealer will handle things properly unless there is ambiguity and he thinks you are trying to take a shot at him. In that case he will often say "No Bet" or he will verbally book the bet by uttering a clarification to your ambiguous comment. This is rarely needed however.
SanchoPanza
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November 29th, 2010 at 4:41:05 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

>I personally don't like to use the word lay as dealers can confuse it as a place bet
Nope. i don't think that is at all likely to happen... but don't let it worry you. Its your money and you do and say what you want unless the dealer or box speak to you about it for some reason.


That's correct, except that some times when I'm taking down a lay bet and say, "Down on my lay bet," the dealer will also take down whatever don't come bets are behind the line. It seems to depend on local practice and the dealer's experience. It really pays to keep a close eye, especially on the first go-round, and to make sure that the dealer understands perfectly clearly that it is just the lay bet.

As for clarity of instructions for the odds, I've tried different phrasings and found the one that is clearest is to say, "Twelve dollars against my 8." That seems to save the dealer the little extra added step of figuring out whether the odds are to be laid or taken.
fabianbranson
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November 29th, 2010 at 5:06:44 AM permalink
Craps is not just a game; it’s a game of chance. Because you are throwing two dice, your odds of beating craps is dictated by the total number of possible combinations for hitting your number. For instance, you can only roll a 2 with two 1s, but you can roll a 4 with either 1 and 3 or with two 2s. Since the score of 7 has the highest number of possibilities (six), 7 is the total that has the highest odds against it. This explains the reason why 7 is the special number in craps probabilities. For more info about craps odds you may visit http://www.thebonuscasinos.com/craps/
goatcabin
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November 29th, 2010 at 9:11:30 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

>If you compare betting the passline without odds to betting the passline and taking 10X odds, they each have exactly the same ev.
Yes.
>However, that tells you very little about the gambling experience one or the other can expect, even for a lifetime's play.
Perhaps. NO player is at the tables for a lifetime and in these days of Hard Times and Bond=Owners Takeovers, not even the casino is assured of a lifetime at owning the tables.



You kind of missed my point there, I think. What I meant was that the large variance associated with 10X odds means that the player's results from odds bets may very well not even out to the zero ev over the player's entire "career" of playing.

Quote: FleaStiff

>It certainly tells you almost nothing about what sort of bankroll you should take to the table
>if you would like to play for a couple of hours.
What sort of a bankroll is determined by a Gamblers Ruin table which is usually presented at a 90 percent Avoidance of Ruin based upon Perfect Basic Strategy without any player or dealer mistakes or tips to dealers or waitresses.



The bankroll should be determined by whatever the individual player's tolerance is, taking into account the ev and SD, so that a much larger bankroll is required for a given Risk-of-Ruin level when taking 10X odds than when taking no odds.

Quote: FleaStiff

>I believe in minimizing the amount of money placed on the flat line bet(s), allocating more to the odds bets.
You ain't gonna get no arguments there! Every dealer, every mathematician, every author will all tell you the same thing.
When you make your flat bet you are not grasping that stick in the middle, you are holding the short end of the stick.



But most authors do not follow that principle, instead recommending come bets, sometimes more than one, which means they are subjecting more of their money to the HA. Following this principle is one of the reasons I stopped making come bets, instead increasing my odds bets behind the pass line. Of course, many players consider it boring to have only one number working, and it can be frustrating to stand there waiting for the shooter to make the point while other players are collecting on come or place bets, but one also avoids those situations where the seven-out wipes out a whole bunch of bets at one swoop.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
MathExtremist
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November 29th, 2010 at 10:01:42 AM permalink
Quote: focd

I personally don't like to use the word lay as it really isn't a lay bet and dealers can confuse it as a place bet


Actually, it's exactly like a lay bet - just without the vig. The odds bet behind a don't point wins and loses on exactly the same numbers as a lay bet. The only difference is that with a lay bet you pay a vigorish; with odds behind a don't point it's vig-less because you've already paid the vig by making the don't bet in the first place. Also, in most cases it should be obvious based on the amount of the bet whether it's lay-odds or a place bet. Lay odds bets are usually large amounts of money, while place bets are usually equivalent in size to line bets. If you're a don't come bettor, the dealer should have no problems keeping track of your bets. Even if the dealer does flub it, you should be on top of it enough to keep track of your money and correct him. It's very unusual for a bettor to have a naked don't point and a big stack of money on the corresponding place bet. The don't/place hedge bets need to be similar in size, with the place bet smaller than the don't point to act as a hedge if it wins.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Martin
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November 29th, 2010 at 10:43:57 AM permalink
Quote: focd

I have a question as to what is the officially correct term to use when playing the don't come. After my don't come bet travels to a point, I tell the dealer I want 12 dollar odds on the point of 8, for instance. The dealer corrects me by saying, "Lay the 8 you mean?" So why do they use the term lay? I mean I am laying odds but it's not the same as a lay bet. This happened in Reno. I play in CA all the time and I always call those "odds". So why do they say this? Is this a Reno thing?



In all gambling you either "take the odds" or "lay the odds" depending on which side of the proposition you favor - consequently on a DC bet you are "laying the odds."

I usually just say - "$x on my 8" and that gets it done.
Martin
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November 29th, 2010 at 10:48:37 AM permalink
Crap! - I skipped a page - my bad. This has already been adequately covered earlier.
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