New Table Game - Player Power Poker

Quote: miplet

First I assumed standard 3 card poker ranking of Straight flush >Trips >Straight > Flush > Pair > High card.
A pair of 9's is a good hand with an EV of around .5 depending on kicker and Power card. A 9 or higher Power card, or a ten or higher kicker always makes the EV higher then .5, so you would never use the power card. The only improvement for a pair of 9's is the 789 straight flush. ( A 89T straight flush means you have a ten so the dealer has one less card to make a higher pair and the EV of not using the power card is greater than .5)
Don't forget you can use my hand analyzer for the EV of any hand.

Wow, nice job on the hand analyzer. I saw that you had the charts in a previous post, but must have missed the usable analyzer. Now if I could just put that on my phone and use it at the table to play. It's opening at it's 3rd location (2nd in California) and 4th location (Iowa) in the next few weeks I think.


ZCore13

The hand analyzer is a website so you should be able to access it just from your phone's browser.

Are you seeing players getting annoyed at having to make two high-edge mandatory bets? Or is the forced-bet structure familiar to house-banked poker players by now, given the other games in the market? I'd call them side bets but they're not really "on the side" if they're mandatory.

Quote: MathExtremist

The hand analyzer is a website so you should be able to access it just from your phone's browser.

Are you seeing players getting annoyed at having to make two high-edge mandatory bets? Or is the forced-bet structure familiar to house-banked poker players by now, given the other games in the market? I'd call them side bets but they're not really "on the side" if they're mandatory.

I've had absolutely no negative feedback on the 3 required bets. I think people are used to it now with UTH and other "The bet has to be equal to this bet to play" games. Also, my other carnival games (High Card Flush and Texas Shootout) do not have a requirement to play the side bets (2 on HCF plus a $1 jackpot) and 1 (plus a $1 jackpot) on Texas Shootout and participation is probably 95%. Everyone plays them without being required.


ZCore13

Quote: miplet

My laptop sucks or I would do analysis, so you'll have to settle for a hand analyzer. No guaranties I don't have a typo or braino some where.

I took out my trusty laptop and did a full analysis. It it only took 3.65 hours with no suit folding. :+)

Outcome	Power Card	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Win	No	1.5	52,653,402,828	0.249884829	0.374827244
Tie	No	0	126,537,696	0.000600528	0
Lose	No	-1	74,297,144,196	0.352602647	-0.352602647
Win	Yes	0.5	49,530,641,256	0.235064691	0.117532345
Tie	Yes	0	132,694,536	0.000629748	0
Lose	Yes	-1	33,970,261,488	0.161217557	-0.161217557
Total			210,710,682,000	1	-0.021460615

Quote: miplet

Quote: miplet

My laptop sucks or I would do analysis, so you'll have to settle for a hand analyzer. No guaranties I don't have a typo or braino some where.

I took out my trusty laptop and did a full analysis. It it only took 3.65 hours with no suit folding. :+)

Outcome	Power Card	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Win	No	1.5	52,653,402,828	0.249884829	0.374827244
Tie	No	0	126,537,696	0.000600528	0
Lose	No	-1	74,297,144,196	0.352602647	-0.352602647
Win	Yes	0.5	49,530,641,256	0.235064691	0.117532345
Tie	Yes	0	132,694,536	0.000629748	0
Lose	Yes	-1	33,970,261,488	0.161217557	-0.161217557
Total			210,710,682,000	1	-0.021460615

Your HE number matches GLI exactly.

ZCore13

Quote: MathExtremist

The hand analyzer is a website so you should be able to access it just from your phone's browser.

True, but legalities at the table. *coughs*

Good to see you back, ME!

Quote: Zcore13

Your HE number matches GLI exactly.

ZCore13

WTG, miplet!

Quote: tringlomane

WTG, miplet!

Thanks.

Since it was pretty easy to add, you can now put in other seen cards in v2 of my hand analyzer.

Quote: tringlomane

True, but legalities at the table. *coughs*

Good to see you back, ME!

Cheers, and I think he was speaking as the TGD, not as a player. I don't know what the laws are in AZ but even in NV the rules against using "devices" to count cards or analyze strategy don't apply to the house. Otherwise nobody would be able to use automatic card-counter-detection software. (See NRS 465.075, there's a blanket exception for "otherwise permitted by the Commission".)

It seems odd that you'd be forced to play the 4-card and 5-card bets, they look like bonus bets. The 4 card hand is the same as the Crazy Four poker "Queens up" bonus sidebet. Also, in california, don't you have to put down at least $1 (or higher for >$25 bets) in order to play? The house edge isn't very good for that scenario.

Quote: MathExtremist

Cheers, and I think he was speaking as the TGD, not as a player. I don't know what the laws are in AZ but even in NV the rules against using "devices" to count cards or analyze strategy don't apply to the house. Otherwise nobody would be able to use automatic card-counter-detection software. (See NRS 465.075, there's a blanket exception for "otherwise permitted by the Commission".)

By general default, I assumed the other way. I'm pretty sure you're correct when it applies to the house.

Maybe I will drive up to Prescott tomorrow and play the game. Will you be working Zcore? It would be nice to shake hands.

Quote: bigfoot66

Maybe I will drive up to Prescott tomorrow and play the game. Will you be working Zcore? It would be nice to shake hands.

Send me a private message when you are driving up and I'll do everything I can to meet you there. I'm pretty open all day. Any idea about what time so I can try and stay free?


ZCore13

Just found out Player Power Poker was taken off from the floor at Sho-Ka-Wah casino, CA a couple of weeks ago.

Wonder how this game is doing at Zcore's casino.

I don't really pay much attention until 90 days. Anyone who thinks a brand new game is going to do as well as a game that's been around for 20 years if fooling themselves and not giving the new game a real shot. After 90 days I'll look how the game is trending. Even if it's still not doing what the previous game was doing, if it's trending up and/or seems to be getting a following of regulars, it will get more time. Why even try and brand new game if you're not going to give it a chance to grow?


ZCore13

Definitely nice

Quote: Zcore13

I don't really pay much attention until 90 days.........Why even try and brand new game if you're not going to give it a chance to grow?

How long was the trial in the CA casino that removed it? It is so frustrating as a developer to go through the process of getting a game approved through a tribal casino commission, train deal staff, ensure all the details (layout art, table signs and rack cards) are delivered, get a contract executed, etc and then have table games give the game less than 90 days on the floor.

As Z said, why even try a new game if the game is on that short of leash to perform? I highly recommend discussing the minimum time a new game will be on the floor as well as minimum hours of operation each week once a property has decided to put a new game in play. If the TG Management has reservations about a 90 day minimum trial with at least 40 hours a week of the game being scheduled to be open, you never reallly sold the game to them anyway and might as well not place the installation. A pulled installation for a brand new game after less than 90 days doesn't help the property or the developer.

Quote: Paradigm

How long was the trial in the CA casino that removed it? It is so frustrating as a developer to go through the process of getting a game approved through a tribal casino commission, train deal staff, ensure all the details (layout art, table signs and rack cards) are delivered, get a contract executed, etc and then have table games give the game less than 90 days on the floor.

As Z said, why even try a new game if the game is on that short of leash to perform? I highly recommend discussing the minimum time a new game will be on the floor as well as minimum hours of operation each week once a property has decided to put a new game in play. If the TG Management has reservations about a 90 day minimum trial with at least 40 hours a week of the game being scheduled to be open, you never reallly sold the game to them anyway and might as well not place the installation. A pulled installation for a brand new game after less than 90 days doesn't help the property or the developer.

There are also a lot of properties that are simply the wrong place for a field trial. An out-of-the-way location with only a handful of locals might be willing to trial a game for you but it may not be a statistically-significant trial. If those locals don't like it, that's not necessarily an indictment of the game. And if the locals do like it, that's not necessarily predictive of success. It may mean you get one install out of it, but there are a lot of games that only got a few installs and never went further. Like Ricochet at the Fiesta Henderson, which to my knowledge was the only install anywhere.

Quote: Zcore13

I don't really pay much attention until 90 days. Anyone who thinks a brand new game is going to do as well as a game that's been around for 20 years if fooling themselves and not giving the new game a real shot. After 90 days I'll look how the game is trending. Even if it's still not doing what the previous game was doing, if it's trending up and/or seems to be getting a following of regulars, it will get more time. Why even try and brand new game if you're not going to give it a chance to grow?


ZCore13

Zcore makes a good point. Game inventor's optimism or house expectations get tempered by at least a multi-month trial period examination, and then by years of patronage data from there. The introduction casino house and the area (Washington, Reno, AC, Las Vegas) plays an important role of getting a game established. Quite often, an under-the-radar casino or area (small tribal card room "somewhere") is used to tailor and fine-tune a new game.

Even great new games (Switch, Freebet) that became solidly established still form only a part of the standard casino offerings. Only Three Card Poker really broke out to the level of a mandatory casino staple, as an unusually successful game.

A new game has to be allowed to develop a "resume" over time, so to speak, to really know. A solid game generally proves itself by sticking around for a long while, at best.

Quote: MathExtremist

.....Like Ricochet at the Fiesta Henderson, which to my knowledge was the only install anywhere.

It was. It lasted a few years there, then went away.

Places like Fiesta Henderson or Texas Station are good for both "quiet introduction" and for possible expansion (by expanding into more prominent Stations' properties, then getting a wider install base). Same with the Cannery Group.

Also, some games find a home at some out of the way places, and are so popular at that place only they are intractable; there are a number of games with a permanent install base of only a couple of dozen joints.

Quote: Paigowdan

Zcore makes a good point. Game inventor's optimism or house expectations get tempered by at least a multi-month trial period examination, and then by years of patronage data from there.

Even great new games (Switch, Freebet) that became solidly established still form only a part of the standard casino offerings. Only Three Card Poker really broke out to the level of a mandatory casino staple, as an unusually successful game.

A new game has to be allowed to develop a "resume" over time, so to speak, to really know. A solid game generally proves itself by sticking around for a long while, at best.

Also worth remembering that there is basically nothing in a casino that's permanent, except maybe roulette and baccarat and "modern" blackjack. In recent times, Caribbean Stud, Let It Ride, and Casino War waxed and waned in popularity. Blackjack exploded in the middle of last century, especially after Thorp, but it's changed a *lot* since then. Good luck finding a single deck 3-2 game today, etc. Even Three Card Poker isn't much like its initial version; that's a story in and of itself. Craps is waning, unfortunately. Pai Gow Poker has stuck around primarily because it's free (due to a terrible mistake on the part of its inventor and/or his attorney). Faro, Red Dog, and Casino Solitaire are nowhere, and most new game inventors don't even know about those. And then there are games that never seemed to cross the Atlantic, like Trente et Quarente or Boule. I played Boule in Monte Carlo, it was like playing roulette with a racquetball.

Point is, like any other industry, there are trends in popularity in casino games. Table games come and go, and that trend isn't just true on felt. Reel slots, for example, are fading as the hard-core players get older and aren't replaced by younger gamblers; they would rather post casino selfies on Instagram than play Buffalo or Wheel of Fortune. NGCB trends bear this out -- Nevada table game win is up even as slot win is declining. Frankly, the reason most new game inventors focus on table games is that it feels like something that's doable, but that's not where the real money is. The real money is in the next generation of electronic wagering content, and not even necessarily for real money. Social gaming company Double Down Interactive booked more revenue in one year on free-to-play slot games on Facebook than Galaxy Gaming has earned in the entirety of its corporate existence. And maybe even more than SHFL has made on proprietary games. $1000/table/month sounds like a lot but it's peanuts compared to $300,000/day on in-game virtual currency purchases.

If we look at it [table game design] honestly, it's difficult cottage industry of many independent designers trying to score a hit.
I will keep trying, though, a dinger or two may be worthwhile.

Quote: MathExtremist

Like Ricochet at the Fiesta Henderson, which to my knowledge was the only install anywhere.

I hate chiming in just to contradict, but Ricochet Dice was installed in about six casinos. Pat Bowlin was the inventor. Nice guy. For the record, that's my favorite game name of all time, especially when you accentuate the third syllable of "ricochet."

Quote: Pacman

I hate chiming in just to contradict, but Ricochet Dice was installed in about six casinos. Pat Bowlin was the inventor. Nice guy. For the record, that's my favorite game name of all time, especially when you accentuate the third syllable of "ricochet."

No worries, thanks for the correction. The inventor did that all himself, yes? Custom furniture and everything?

Someone should be keeping track of this sort of thing, not from a commercial standpoint but from a historian's one. It could be a modern-day Hoyle (or Scarne's Encyclopedia) for commercially-operated casino table games since 1980. I bet the folks at UNLV would be pretty happy to have that as a resource and there is certainly enough knowledge across just the readers of this forum to pull that off. Or it would make a good companion site for WoO, with a focus on history, rules and equipment rather than math and play strategy.

Quote: Paradigm

How long was the trial in the CA casino that removed it? It is so frustrating as a developer to go through the process of getting a game approved through a tribal casino commission, train deal staff, ensure all the details (layout art, table signs and rack cards) are delivered, get a contract executed, etc and then have table games give the game less than 90 days on the floor.

My guess would be just under 60 days. Right around 60 for sure. Definitely a fast trigger. I'm sure it's a little of being scared, a little of not putting the time in to teach the customers and a little of not having a 100% confidence level in it to start.


ZCore13

Quote: MathExtremist

There are also a lot of properties that are simply the wrong place for a field trial.

I took a look at the 500 Nations website and looked up Sho-Ka-Wah casino and ME's quote above immediately came to mind. They list 8 tables in their pit on 500 Nations. If that is true, dedicating 12.5% of your floor space to a new game without a significant track record is a very difficult path to success.

Targeting a casino with less than 12-15 tables when trying to sell a new premium game is a mistake......the real estate is just too valuable for mgmt. to take a chance on a brand new game.....and if you convince them otherwise plan on a quick trigger. TG Mgmt is going to feel pressure from above pretty quickly when such a high percentage of the real estate is under performing........and let's face it, very few new games come out of the shoot in the first 60 days and blow the doors off!

Rather new games tend to hold too much and burn out players or if they are good player games with staying power, it takes a while for that mindset to permeate through the player base.......good games tend to start with smaller drops and hold percentages in the high teens to mid 20's (depending on the variant) and build a following over 3-6 mos. with the drop growing as more and more players discover the game and come back and play because their bankroll didn't get bushwhack on their first experience.

This trial would appear to have been doomed from the start if this truly is an 8 table pit. The failed trial at this property may not tell the overall market much about whether the game will be successful.

For a premium game, it does need 90 days or so to evaluate. How about side bets? Do U all think it need 90 days to assess a BJ-, Pai Gow-, or Baccarat side bet? I think 30-45 days is enough.

Quote: UCivan

For a premium game, it does need 90 days or so to evaluate. How about side bets? Do U all think it need 90 days to assess a BJ-, Pai Gow-, or Baccarat side bet? I think 30-45 days is enough.

30 days is not enough time to evaluate any game or side bet. I give everything 90 days.


ZCore13

The game wasn't even active for a month in ShoKaWah.