How do people (Babs and others) analyze Ultimate Texas Hold'em (UTH)?
I model games as a hobby (always looking for an edge.) I have successfully modeled Mississippi Stud, which has a sequence of decisions that is similar to UTH -but that's only a 5-card stud hand that is compared to a payout table. I have also modeled Pai Gow Poker, 8-card poker, 4-card poker, 3-Card Poker, Chase the Flush and many BJ variants. UTH is much more complicated - the total of 9 cards, the sharing of 5 cards, the sequence of decisions, the dealer opening/qualifying, etc. makes it quite complex.
I have studied the WOO page on UTH - I understand the Return table of 56 outcomes but I confess that I cannot imagine how the Wizard calculated the number of combinations for those 56 scenarios - and I'm a very smart guy who does understand combination math. I consider it to be a very impressive accomplishment and I would love to have a high-level verbal description of the approach he took.
To ask a simple question:
Is there a straightforward way (other than a Monte Carlo simulation) to analyze, for a starting hand of J9o, whether one should BET 4x or not? Can anyone quote me the approximate EV for J9o when betting 4X and when NOT betting 4x? How do people in the forum analyze this?
- If needed, we can take as a groundrule the Wizard's strategy for the post-flop (2X) bet and the river decision (BET 1X or fold).
Here's the 10 most common mistakes I see people making in UTH.
1. Not 4x betting every ace no matter what. Doesn't matter how small the 2nd card is.
2. Not 4x betting small pairs. 2s are the only pocket pair you should check. Lots of people check 3 thru 7.
3. Not betting 1x with nothing when the board plays (hoping for a push).
4. Not folding a nothing hand otherwise.
5. Not counting the outs before deciding whether to bet 1x or fold your kicker. Overcards on the board matter a LOT.
6. Not betting a Kx 2x when there's a pair on the flop, or a Qx 2x when there's an over pair or 2 overcards on the flop. Both ordinarily are 1x bets (when you haven't already 4x bet them, of course). (Slightly in the weeds, but makes sense if you think about it)
7. Not 4x betting JTo, or even suited, or Q9o. They're good cards that make a lot of hands, at least more than they lose.
8. Thinking it's ok to EVER 3x bet a hand. 4x or check. Otherwise you're just giving money back to the house.
9. Betting more on trips than in the back. Trips is a slow bleed on your br. Best, if you're going to play it at all, is to bet 1/2 your ante to minimize the drain).
10. Not betting 4 to a flush 2x, or conversely betting 4 to a straight, with no other value, after the flop. Nine flush outs vs 8 straight outs, plus the higher flush pay on the blind, makes the difference in the EV. They're not.the same rule of thumb.
Well, if you know the counting outs for basic on the river then you should be able to equate that to a "kicker" strategy...
Example Board: J-J-6-6-2... a 10 kicker would have 6x4 = 24 outs - your other card (which is clearly lower than your 10 kicker) so 23 outs. Q = 7x4 = 28-1 = 27 outs.
Example Board: 8-8-A-2-9... a 10 kicker would have 5x4 = 20 outs - 1 = 19 outs. J = 6x4 = 24 - 1 = 23 outs... Q = 7x4 = 28 - 1 = 27 outs.
Example Board: 2-5-8-J-A... a 10 kicker would have 5x4 = 20 - 1 = 19 outs. J = 6x4 = 24 - 1 = 23 outs... Q = 7x4 = 28 - 1 = 27 outs.
You can do this right now, not at the casino, and then you could gauge based on an "average" boards (notice I used high and low pair in the 2 pair, then a middle pair in the 8's...) to make your "kicker" rule instead of counting outs. Do note that you'll be pretty accurate and it might be easier to remember, but that comes with the cost of not always being accurate.
Then again, remembering different kickers for "2 pair boards," "1 pair boards," "no pair boards" sounds like just about as much work as just counting the outs.
Sounds like we count outs backwards BBB... I count "win" outs, or things I can beat. As in poker when you refer to outs they are cards that win you the hand.
Thus when I have 10 high, I don't count higher cards as if I put the dealer (or another player) on having those then there's no reason to play because you can't win. Thus if the board is J-J-6-6-2, and you have 10-7, how many WIN outs do you have? ...3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9... times 4 each... 6x4 = 24, minus the 7 in your hand = 23 outs.
You're correct I did not count "push" outs, which would be inclusive of your card as well (and add another 3 outs to each scenario basically). This is much easier for the typical time I'm playing the game, and not playing basic strategy =P.
I disagree. If the board is J-J-6-6-2 and I have 10-7, the dealer cards are unseen yet I need to make a decision based on them. I most certainly have outs to win if the dealer has 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9. Those are my "win outs" remaining in all of the unseen cards (including the dealers hand). Outs in poker mostly refer to the community because the other player is not playing his hand blind. Here, the dealer is blind, so his cards are "random" until seen, just like the community cards. Similar to flipping over another community card to give me a winning hand, the dealer can flip over "winning cards" (my win outs here) to give me the winning hand all the same.Quote: beachbumbabs
Outs is a pretty specific poker term. It refers to cards yet to come that will improve a hand that's not yet full. In this game, your hand is full after the river. You have no more outs. But if you have cards that improve the board, evaluating the kicker value is essential.