avargov
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October 1st, 2011 at 7:33:43 AM permalink
Whew! That was a close one! Todays .picks:

Ill -400 NW Laying 1200 to win 300
TX -400 IaSt. Laying 800 to win 200
Ala -180 .Fla Laying 900 to win 500
USC -450 AZ Laying 900 to win 200
TCU -500 SMU Laying 1000 to 200
ND -450 Pur. Laying 1350 to win.300

All at LeRoys. Good luick!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Knuckleball3
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October 1st, 2011 at 8:39:48 AM permalink
Good Luck today! Northwestern, Iowa St, AZ, and Purdue I liked with the points, hopefully they cover but lose outright for your sake. Bama I took ML too.
"In the poker game of life, women are the rake" Edward Norton (Rounders)
Wizard
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October 1st, 2011 at 9:33:38 AM permalink
Here are my college bets today:


Bet Odds
Air Force 148
Northwestern 325
Minn U 590
Toledo 285
Bowling Green 750
Idaho 550
Tulane 230
Indiana 515
NC State 320
Akron 295
Miami Ohio 510
Kent St 540
Kansas 220
Wash st 140
Cent Mich 295
UCLA 1075
Iowa St 270
Mich St 148
Florida 165
Marshall 350
Arizona U 375
Wash Univ 340
San Jose St 155
Oregon State 725
Kansas State 155
Hawaii 175
Miss St 255
Auburn 360
Rice 435
Clemson 255
East Carolina 220
Nebraska 325
Purdue 380
Miss 145
West KY 390
Duke 150
UAB 630
Florida Atlantic 280
SMU 400
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
avargov
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October 1st, 2011 at 10:49:19 AM permalink
Hey Wiz, are those all dogs? :-). Good luck on all of them (except for any on the other side of my bets lol)

We should try to get together one saturday before the season in over and have a beer (or wine or lunch) at a book in town.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 2nd, 2011 at 3:43:21 PM permalink
Update after 5 weeks. Seems that I forgot to add two wins in week three to the running W-L totals, although the money didn't change.

Favorites: 23-4 .852 +5800
Dogs: 0-2 .000 -500

Total: 23-6 .793 +5300

It seems that I have done what I set out to do, double my bankroll. Only took 5 weeks instead of the whole season. i will continue to pick and post for the remainder of the season and try to increase the profit further.

That being said, I want to give a heartfelt thanks to our host, The Wizard, for indirectly inspiring me to do this. My history had always been to try to beat the spread, and I was mildly successful at doing that. But this has been the best year by far (I have been betting college football for 25 years) that I have ever had. Both financially, and winning percentage.

Again, Wiz...Mike....THANK YOU very much for having this site and allowing us to freely post and share ideas!!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Wizard
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October 2nd, 2011 at 8:19:58 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

Hey Wiz, are those all dogs? :-). Good luck on all of them (except for any on the other side of my bets lol)

We should try to get together one saturday before the season in over and have a beer (or wine or lunch) at a book in town.



Sure. Of course they were all dogs, I never bet favorites, except maybe in the Super Bowl. I'd be happy to see you any time, send me a PM.

Had a good day Saturday. I flat bet all those picks, so had a 40.4% profit. However, had a bad today today in the NFL. The 49ers were the only big dog to come in.


Bet Odds W/L Win
Air Force 148 w 1.48
Northwestern 325 l -1.00
Minn U 590 l -1.00
Toledo 285 w 2.85
Bowling Green 750 l -1.00
Idaho 550 l -1.00
Tulane 230 l -1.00
Indiana 515 l -1.00
NC State 320 l -1.00
Akron 295 l -1.00
Miami Ohio 510 l -1.00
Kent St 540 l -1.00
Kansas 220 l -1.00
Wash st 140 w 1.40
Cent Mich 295 w 2.95
UCLA 1075 l -1.00
Iowa St 270 l -1.00
Mich St 148 w 1.48
Florida 165 l -1.00
Marshall 350 w 3.50
Arizona U 375 w 3.75
Wash Univ 340 w 3.40
San Jose St 155 w 1.55
Oregon State 725 l -1.00
Kansas State 155 w 1.55
Hawaii 175 w 1.75
Miss St 255 l -1.00
Auburn 360 w 3.60
Rice 435 l -1.00
Clemson 255 w 2.55
East Carolina 220 l -1.00
Nebraska 325 l -1.00
Purdue 380 l -1.00
Miss 145 w 1.45
West KY 390 l -1.00
Duke 150 w 1.50
UAB 630 l -1.00
Florida Atlantic 280 l -1.00
SMU 400 w 4.00
Total 15.76
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
minnesotajoe
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October 7th, 2011 at 1:06:48 PM permalink
Wiz... I love your Southern Methodist pick against Texas Christian... Have to admit.. when I saw they were getting more than 20... I just took the points and bet ATS
avargov
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October 8th, 2011 at 7:44:29 AM permalink
Week 6 is here, let's keep building on the wins of the past...

OK -420 TX laying 840 to win 200
Pitt -270 Rut. Laying 810 to win 300
Geo -145 TN Laying 435 to win 300
Mich -300 NW Laying 900 to win 300
ND -650 AF Laying 1950 to win 300

Nothing else is really jumping out at me today, 5 seems like a good number. Good luck with your dog pick Mike!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Wizard
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October 8th, 2011 at 8:10:44 AM permalink
Here are my bets today:


Bet Odds
Texas 370
Indiana 455
Boston College 1000
Conn 840
UAB 700
Iowa 175
Rutgers 240
Minn 435
Louisville 435
Cent. Mich. 355
Memphis 850
Bowling Green 340
Ball State 315
Utah 155
San Jose State 435
East. Mich. 1000
Buffalo 295
Kent St. 535
Auburn 320
Maryland 500
Miami FL 260
Air Force 465
UNLV 950
Marshall 800
Idaho 160
Northwestern 260
East Carolina 380
Iowa State 540
Kentucky 1025
Wake Forest 335
Texas Tech 305
Tulane 330
Wyoming 380
Florida 450
Ohio State 340
Washington St 160
San Diego St 175
Akron 635
UL Laf. 210
Fl. Atl. 160
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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October 8th, 2011 at 11:34:26 PM permalink
Two words to describe today -- totally destroyed.


Air Force 465 l -1.00
Akron 635 l -1.00
Auburn 320 l -1.00
Ball State 315 l -1.00
Boston College 1000 l -1.00
Bowling Green 340 l -1.00
Buffalo 295 w 2.95
Cent. Mich. 355 l -1.00
Conn 840 l -1.00
East Carolina 380 l -1.00
East. Mich. 1000 l -1.00
Fl. Atl. 160 l -1.00
Florida 450 l -1.00
Idaho 160 l -1.00
Indiana 455 l -1.00
Iowa 175 l -1.00
Iowa State 540 l -1.00
Kent St. 535 l -1.00
Kentucky 1025 l -1.00
Louisville 435 l -1.00
Marshall 800 l -1.00
Maryland 500 l -1.00
Memphis 850 l -1.00
Miami FL 260 l -1.00
Minn 435 l -1.00
Northwestern 260 l -1.00
Ohio State 340 l -1.00
Rutgers 240 w 2.40
San Diego St 175 l -1.00
San Jose State 435 l -1.00
Texas 370 l -1.00
Texas Tech 305 l -1.00
Tulane 330 l -1.00
UAB 700 l -1.00
UL Laf. 210 w 2.10
UNLV 950 l -1.00
Utah 155 l -1.00
Wake Forest 335 w 3.35
Washington St 160 l -1.00
Wyoming 380 l -1.00
Total -25.20


That is 25.2 units lost over 40 bet. The chances of doing that badly or worse are 3% only.

Now, let me lick my wounds in peace.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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October 9th, 2011 at 4:43:23 AM permalink
You should have just bet it all on Buffalo.
Wizard
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October 9th, 2011 at 8:51:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You should have just bet it all on Buffalo.



Now you tell me.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
gamblerDoug
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October 9th, 2011 at 11:04:14 AM permalink
Hi Wiz. Big fan. Question - based on history, does the player actually get a long-run edge betting the money line on random college football games? (Do you have a secret formula for picking the teams you do?)
Wizard
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October 9th, 2011 at 11:27:40 AM permalink
I think there is a small advantage if you can get good lines. I'll answer this question in more detail later this month, hopefully.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
EvenBob
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October 9th, 2011 at 1:11:25 PM permalink
Wiz, do you bet on basketball? NBA, that is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Wizard
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October 9th, 2011 at 2:02:14 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Wiz, do you bet on basketball? NBA, that is.



No.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
avargov
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October 9th, 2011 at 10:57:07 PM permalink
4-1 this week. +290. Modest win.

Sorry about your tough week Wiz, it will come round for ya brother!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 13th, 2011 at 1:13:18 PM permalink
Air Force -300 SDSU. Laying 1500 to won 500. Leroys
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 15th, 2011 at 9:21:19 AM permalink
Tough start to the week. 5 games today:

PSU -450 Pur. laying 1350 for 300
LSU -800 Ten. Laying 2400 for 300
OkSt -300 Tex. Laying 1500 for 500
Clem -310 Mary. Laying 930 for 300
Ore -550 AzSt . Laying 1650 to win 300

This could be a very disastrous day for me. Yikes!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Wizard
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October 15th, 2011 at 9:34:55 AM permalink
After updating my college football money line chart I realize that hunting around for good college football money lines is not worth my time. I wish I had done this last week, after the brutal beating I took.

My only bet today is Indiana money line at +21000. Off to a bad start:

IN 0
Wis 14
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
avargov
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October 15th, 2011 at 10:48:47 PM permalink
5-1 this week. +200. Not bad after the poor start. Hoping for an ace week coming up. BE is at 10790, so still in positive territory.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
SONBP2
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October 17th, 2011 at 12:19:47 PM permalink
I know it is easier said after the fact, but I was really surprised not to see Wyoming playing at home verse UNLV at -300 as one of your bets for the week. Wyoming won 41-14. I would keep looking for spots to bet against UNLV the rest of the year. Good Luck.
EvenBob
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October 17th, 2011 at 12:41:15 PM permalink
Where are the Wiz's college pic's for the 15th, didn't he post
them?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
avargov
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October 17th, 2011 at 5:29:34 PM permalink
No Bob, he didn't bet but 1 game this week. Was Indiana +21000. It lost. I think the Wiz is out for the rest of the year.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 22nd, 2011 at 8:05:08 AM permalink
I only see three games today worth messing with, and here they are:

Clemson -400 North Carolina. Laying 1200 to win 300.
Ok State -270 Mizzou. Laying 1350 to win 500.
Wisconsin -300 Mich St. Laying 3000 to win 1000.

I am sure there are a couple of more, but I ain't seeing them. ND perhaps looks good, as well as Kansas, but not good enough to bet 'em. Good luck with your pick this week!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Wizard
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October 22nd, 2011 at 8:29:59 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Where are the Wiz's college pic's for the 15th, didn't he post
them?



Because I bet only one game. I'm not betting college football the rest of the year. The advantages are too thin to fuss with and waste my time checking the scores over.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
avargov
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October 22nd, 2011 at 10:45:36 PM permalink
Well, I am 2-1 this week. I finally got one to gripe about. I think Wisconsin got jobbed. 2 refs right there and they overturn it. Oh well, whatever. Down 2200 this week.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 26th, 2011 at 3:36:00 PM permalink
Pitt -400 UConn. Laying 2000 to win 500.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
PapaChubby
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October 26th, 2011 at 7:26:39 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

Well, I am 2-1 this week. I finally got one to gripe about. I think Wisconsin got jobbed. 2 refs right there and they overturn it. Oh well, whatever. Down 2200 this week.



I'm an MSU alum. Hope you don't still feel that Wisconsin got jobbed. Even though the review clearly shows a touchdown, I'm still a little amazed that they overturned the call instead of letting it go to OT.

avargov
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October 26th, 2011 at 8:58:57 PM permalink
I am over it....they didn't show that angle during the game at all (at least no in a freeze frame like that). They only slo-mo-ed it...and you couldn't really tell....and I am amazed that they overturned it as well. Oh well, no Big 10 team in the national championship game this year I guess. Nice win though for Sparty!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:25:31 AM permalink
Ark -330 Vandy. Laying 3300 to win 1000.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:26:57 AM permalink
And one more:

Clemson -155 GT. Laying 1550 to win 1000.

Good luck today fellow bettors.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Doc
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October 29th, 2011 at 9:43:44 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

Clemson -155 GT. Laying 1550 to win 1000.


This weekend, one of my colleges lost their football game in triple overtime, and it isn't USC.

My other college defeated Clemson. Sorry that you lost money on that game, avargov, but I am happy about that win. And I was about as surprised as the Clemson coach. Maybe GT has shaken off their two-week slump. Hope so.
ncfatcat
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October 30th, 2011 at 7:16:46 AM permalink
Quote: avargov

And one more:

Clemson -155 GT. Laying 1550 to win 1000.

Good luck today fellow bettors.



You are obviously not from North/South Carolina. Since Danny Ford left as Clemson coach Clemson is well known to flame out near the end of the season, especially if they have a national ranking. Usually it's USC (as in South Carolina) that humbles them.
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
APDave
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October 31st, 2011 at 8:02:47 AM permalink
Ouch on the Clemson game, I wouldn't have played that one either. Good thing you didn't bet on Wisconsin or Kstate as well.
Doc
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October 31st, 2011 at 10:45:46 AM permalink
Hope I am not distracting this thread too much by one more Georgia Tech post that does not discuss a specific wager.

With the GT victory over #5 Clemson, one of the trivia items that was pointed out (I have not researched to verify this) was that GT has not lost a home game to a ranked team since Paul Johnson became head coach in 2008. I hope that lucky charm continues to dazzle through the next game (week from Thursday) when Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta. If GT can manage a victory then and follow up with a victory over cellar-dweller Duke, they will at least tie VT for the lead in the Coastal division of the ACC, winning the tie breaker (head-to-head game). That would most likely lead to a rematch with Clemson in the ACC championship game. Good football opportunity if that's the way it works out, and maybe a very interesting wagering opportunity.
avargov
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November 1st, 2011 at 8:19:14 PM permalink
Doc, by all means, please feel free to post whatever you wish in this thread. I should hope the flagging folks will leave this little corner of the world alone. I wish I would have had your comments before I bet, but, oh well.

Thanks for posting here, I know I appreciate it!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
Doc
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November 9th, 2011 at 8:51:01 PM permalink
Following up on my earlier musings about tomorrow night's game between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech....

I just scanned some web pages for info on the current betting lines, and it appears that the only consistency is that odds-makers seem to think it will be a very tight game. Most lines that I found call it a one-point advantage for Va Tech or a pick-em, with a very small number giving Georgia Tech a one-point nod. It strikes me that a team ranked 10/9 in the polls (Va Tech) should merit a bigger spread than that over a team ranked 20/19. Yes, the game is to be played in Atlanta, but does that wipe out a 10-spot difference in the rankings? I guess a lot of folks must have bought into that stat I mentioned earlier about GT not having lost a home game to a ranked team in the four years Paul Johnson has been the head coach. I checked into that stat, and the record is 6-0 vs. teams in the top 25, including 2-0 vs. teams in the top 10. Not a lot of games in the set.

It's a good thing I'm not a sports bettor. On this game, my heart and my brain might be telling me conflicting stories.
avargov
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December 29th, 2011 at 4:13:23 PM permalink
I haven't made many predictions this year, but am making my first straight bet of the year. Taking the Baylor Washington game over 79. 5500 to win 5000. Good luck.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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December 29th, 2011 at 8:10:38 PM permalink
Thinking I got this one in the bag! Yea!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
avargov
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December 29th, 2011 at 8:39:18 PM permalink
And with that 2-point conversion...I have won the largest single bet I have ever made. And that is my swan song. I am hanging up my gambling hat now. My wife has asked me to let it go. I do spend a little too much time researching games. So I have agreed. With that, I shall ask The Wiz to delete my account. Been fun chatting with you folks for the past year and a half. I hope everyone has positive outcomes on their bets. Cheers to you all...Alan.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
teddys
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December 30th, 2011 at 8:07:26 AM permalink
That is a good way to go out! You never had to worry about that one .... The first self-exclusion on Wov? Might be good to take a break for a while. I don't mind saying, hope to see you back, though!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Mosca
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December 30th, 2011 at 8:16:10 AM permalink
All the best, Alan. One of the good guys. I remember when you came in here, you put your money where your words were, and never wavered from that stance. Good show!
A falling knife has no handle.
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