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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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ksdjdj
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:02:48 AM permalink
For a few decades the Bills were the Pats bitch. Now it is the other way around. Excepting that game where the weather prevented real football from being played, the last 3 years the Bills have owned the Pats. There is no way I could bet on the Pats when they show up in Buffalo for the next game.

USC just looked pathetic on defense. They looked like JVers trying to tackle the varsity boys. I’ll be betting against them in whatever bowl game they are in.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 3rd, 2022 at 4:59:33 PM permalink
Normally I don't like loading up on the same team and game, but I like:

Michigan -3.5 @ $1.85 in the 1st quarter, so I had 2^^^ units on it.

^^^: If I didn't already have a bet earlier on them (full game ATS) then I would have just had 3 units on this (so in other words, I think this is "x x x").
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 5th, 2022 at 1:10:35 PM permalink
NCAAF:
Bet / OptionUnit Won / Lost
3.3 units Utah Utes +3.5 @ $1.83 2.750
2.2 units Michigan Wolverines -15.5 @ $1.84 1.848
3.2 units on Over 50.5 @ $1.85 2.720
Michigan -3.5 @ $1.85 in the 1st quarter, so I had 2 units on it. -2.000
Total For Week5.318

NFL:
Bet / OptionUnit Won / Lost
2 units on the Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.90-2.000
2 units on the Seahawks' -12.5 @ $2.60 -2.000
1.5 units on the New England Patriots -5.5*** @ +400 -1.500
0.2 units on the Dolphins -5.5 @ +400 -0.200
Total For Period-5.700


Current Results:

NCAAF:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 228.055
Profit: 16.904
"Profit on Turnover": 7.41...%

NFL:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 100.06
Profit: 5.423
"Profit on Turnover": 5.41...%

Combined:
Turnover (Total bet, so far): 328.115
Profit: 22.327
"Profit on Turnover": 6.80...%
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 10th, 2022 at 12:47:17 AM permalink
Navy -2.5 @ -115 is about “x x”
I had on 2.7 units on them @ -135 ml


——
Sent by phone
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
December 11th, 2022 at 7:01:31 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Navy -2.5 @ -115 is about “x x”
I had on 2.7 units on them @ -135 ml


——
Sent by phone
link to original post



Luckily I couldn’t bet on this because STUPID rule prevents me from betting on a college team (ARMY) located in NYS.

What are your picks for NFL today!? Quick, games start in 3 hours!
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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ksdjdj
December 11th, 2022 at 7:14:40 AM permalink
I took a flyer on Big Blue. $25 on the ML and $100 on the GMen, getting seven. With my track record, the Giants are doomed.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
December 11th, 2022 at 9:43:05 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I took a flyer on Big Blue. $25 on the ML and $100 on the GMen, getting seven. With my track record, the Giants are doomed.
link to original post



I got 7.5. And also took small chance on ML too. My track record is probably worse than yours!!!!!
We can sink together….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2022 at 11:32:17 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
What are your picks for NFL today!? Quick, games start in 3 hours!
link to original post


Just (4 bets), ATM:
2 units Panthers' +3.5 @ -110 ($1.90)
2 units Bucs' game Under 38.5 @ -110 ($1.90)
3 units Chargers' +3.5 @ -110 ($2.00)
(1.8 units Chargers' game Under 54.5 @ $1.93)

The above edits/updates were made @ about 1210 am, Pac time (all of the above in brackets are the relevant changes).

-----
Comments:
Wasn't watching the "Navy game" live (at work) but bad luck^^^ with the "TD on the blocked punt by Army".

^^^: I don't remember the exact figure, but I think Navy were about 100 yards (?) better on total yards, and just as important they also had a bigger "yards per carry/attempt" (at least before OT).

----
Update (at about half-time, for the Bucs' game):
While I was at the "betting shop" I had another look at my Bucs' bet (I don't care if anyone believes me or not) but I was very lucky that the 'book has updated their app, and have swapped the way they do the totals (used to be under on the left, and over on the right).

Anyway, long story short I am on the over 38.5 (not the under) so while I was at the "betting shop" I had $2.2k live bet on the under 45.5 @ $1.90. ###

### (important): This bet won't count as part of the "official results" for this thread, as "I posted that I am on the under 38.5" (since that is the one that I thought was value, at the time of the post / bet).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2022 at 2:21:20 PM permalink
"Live betting plan" for the Chiefs' game:

If the Chiefs' are up by 28 + pts and / or the total is 30 + pts, I plan to bet on the Broncos' and Under (respectively).

I would want to get at least:

+31.5 for the Broncos' (if down by 28) and
54.5 for the Under (if the score was 30-0)

Note 1: I would count both of these as "x x " bets, if I end up being able to have them.
Note 2: I started writing this when the score was 20-0 (it is now 27-0).


Strike-through all of the above, because the score is now 27 - 14

----
Update:
Similar plan for the Bucs' game:
If the score is 28-0, then I would want Under 45.5***

***: "x x" 49ers under 31.5 @ +100 ^^^

----
Update 2:
^^^ Lucky for me, by the time I drove to the "betting shop" the total changed to 35.5, as the 49ers went to 28-0.

I had 2.4 units on the 49ers under 35.5 @ -120
I also had 1.5 units on the Bucs' +27.5 @ $1.90 (so about "x grade")

Note: For the purposes of the "official graded bets/ results", I will still count the bet as a loss, if the 49ers total is over 31.5 but under 35.5.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 11th, 2022 at 4:32:20 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
(1.8 units Chargers' game Under 54.5 @ $1.93)
(snip)
... and have swapped the way they do the totals (used to be under on the left, and over on the right).
Anyway, long story short I am on the over 38.5...
(snip)
link to original post


This is ridiculous, because it makes me look like a "complete amateur" , but I am on the over 54.5### for 1.8 units @ $1.93 (for the same reason as the previous total I bet).
So I took the under 55.5^^^ @ $1.90 (for 3 units).

###: This is the total that I will use for "betting on the under" in my "official graded bet results" for this game, but I am actually hoping for a total of exactly 55 (so 7 x "7-pt TDs", and 2 x FGs, is the most likely way to get that exact total).

^^^: If you are following/copying my bets, then I think the under 55.5 is between a "high x x to low x x x". So, if you haven't bet yet, then I recommend you use 110% x whatever you normally bet on my "x x" grades (the original 54.5 was a solid "x " @ $1.90 / -111, IMO).

-----
Comment(s):

This weeks' adjustment figures are going to be even messier, compared to the last time I showed " "Graded bet to real bet" adjustments".

-----
Edits (1700, Pac Time): Some minor edits to the wording in this, so didn't bother saying what was amended.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2022

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