ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 17th, 2022 at 7:01:41 PM permalink
I am starting this thread because I want to keep track of my "NFL win by x points" bets.

Anyway, below are my bets for this week in the NFL (*** means the bet has already been graded).

Note 1: I may also put up "some odds for comparison" , if I remember what they were.

Note 2: I think I started a similar thread to this one last year, but this one will be simpler (I am just going to keep track of turnover and profit/loss).

----
Chargers @ Chiefs

180 @ 20/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 2 or 3 x under 10.5 in the 1st Q" ***
120 @ 30/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 2 or 3 x over10.5 in the 1st Q" ***

Turnover was 300, and the results are: +3480
----
Panthers @ Giants

200 @ 20/1 on "the Panthers to win by 3 x under 63.5 for the match"
For comparison: the win by 3 was 16/1 for the Panthers.

Turnover for this game is 200, and the total turnover is now 500, for the week
----
Colts @ Jags

190 @ 16/1 on "the Colts to win by 2 or 3 x under 29.5 for the 1st half"
210 @ 12/1 on "the Colts to win by 2 or 3 x under 64.5 for the match"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 10/1 for the Colts.

Turnover for this game is 400, and the total turnover is now 900, for the week
----
Dolhpins @ Ravens

600 @ 14/1 on "the Ravens to win by 2 or 3 x under 64.5 for the match"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 11/1 for the Ravens.

Turnover for this game is 600, and the total turnover is now 1500, for the week
----
Patriots @ Steelers

120 @ 20/1 on "the Steelers to win by 3 x under 27.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 3 was 14/1 for the Steelers.

Turnover for this game is 120, and the total turnover is now 1620, for the week
----
Jets @ Browns

320 @ 11/1 on "the Browns to win by 2 or 3 x over 12.5 for the 1st half"
280 @ 14/1 on "the Browns to win by 2 or 3 x under 59.5 for the match"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 9/1 for the Browns.

Turnover for this game is 600, and the total turnover is now 2220, for the week
----
Falcons @ Rams

240 @ 16/1 on "the Rams to win by 7 "

200 @ 14/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 x over 5.5 for the 1st quarter"
200 @ 14/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 x under 30.5 for the 1at half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 8/1 for the Rams (I did not keep track of the win by 7 figure).

Turnover for this game is 640, and the total turnover is now 2860, for the week
----
Seahawks @ 49ers

250 @ 14/1 on "the 49ers to win by 2 or 3 x over 13.5 for the 1st half"
250 @ 14/1 on "the 49ers to win by 2 or 3 x under 27.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 17/2 for the 49ers.

Turnover for this game is 500, and the total turnover is now 3360, for the week
----
Cardinals @ Raiders

210 @ 18/1 on "the Raiders to win by 2 or 3 x under 32.5 for the 1st half"
260 @ 14/1 on "the Raiders to win by 2 or 3 x under 71.5 for the match"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 11/1 for the Raiders.

Turnover for this game is 470, and the total turnover is now 3830, for the week
----
Bengals @ Cowboys

160 @ 12/1 on "the Bengals to win by 2 or 3 x over 13.5 for the 1st half"
160 @ 12/1 on "the Bengals to win by 2 or 3 x under 27.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 8/1 for the Bengals.

Turnover for this game is 320, and the total turnover is now 4150, for the week
----
Texans @ Broncos

230 @ 25/1 on "the Broncos to win by 7 x under 30.5 for the 1st half"
190 @ 30/1 on "the Broncos to win by 7 x under 11.5 for the 1st quarter"
For comparison: the win by 7 was 16/1 for the Broncos.

475 @ 18/1 on "the Broncos to win by 2 or 3 x under 11.5 for the 1st quarter"
525 @ 16/1 on "the Broncos to win by 2 or 3 x over 16.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 9/1 for the Broncos.

Turnover for this game is 1420, and the total turnover is now 5570, for the week
----
Bears @ Packers

540 @ 16/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 x over 14.5 for the 1st half"
580 @ 14/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 x under 28.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 9/1 for the Packers.

Turnover for this game is 1120, and the total turnover is now 6690, for the week
----
Titans @ Bills

360 @ 18/1 on "the Bills to win by 7 "

440 @ 16/1 on "the Bills to win by 2 or 3 x over 17.5 for the 1st half"
460 @ 14/1 on "the Bills to win by 2 or 3 x under 31.5 for the 1st half"
For comparison: the win by 2 or 3 was 9/1 for the Bills.

Turnover for this game is 1260, and the total turnover is now 7950, for the week
-----
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 17, 2022
DRich
DRich
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Thanked by
ksdjdj
September 18th, 2022 at 7:04:15 AM permalink
Thank you for posting these before the outcomes. I am skeptical of anyone that posts their bets after the outcome.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 18th, 2022 at 5:24:53 PM permalink
In response to the post above:
Thanks, I was tossing up whether to put the "Chiefs bets" up or not (I probably wont count it now, because it was "past posting").
----
Other stuff:
A couple of "close ones" today. It would have been great if the Raiders scored a field goat in OT.

Glad the Broncos won by 7, that was probably the best or 2nd best "estimated value game*** " this week.

*** : When using the public line and total, in combination with the link here , to work out the chance and EV estimates.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 19th, 2022 at 3:46:00 PM permalink
This weeks' result(s):

Note 1: Since there were quite a few bets, I will only post the details for the ones that win.
Note 2:This post was written early, and assumes "no more winning bets for the week" (I will update/ change this post, if any of today's bet(s) win),

Texans @ Broncos

230 @ 25/1 on "the Broncos to win by 7 x under 30.5 for the 1st half"
190 @ 30/1 on "the Broncos to win by 7 x under 11.5 for the 1st quarter"

All other bets lost*** this week

***; Reminder, I decided not to count the result for the Chiefs game

So the result was: "Winning bets" - "Losing bets" = (230 x 25) + (190 x 30) - (7650 - 230 - 190) = 11450 - 7230 = 4220
----
P/L summary:

Turnover: 7650
Profit / (Loss): 4220
% Returns (Profit/Turnover): +55.1%
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 19th, 2022 at 4:25:08 PM permalink
Week 3:
----
Steelers @ Browns

720 @ 14/1 on "the Browns to win by 3 "
660 @ 16/1 on "the Browns to win by 3 x under 59.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1380.
----
Ravens @ Patriots

490 @ 14/1 on "the Ravens to win by 3 "
430 @ 18/1 on "the Ravens to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 920, and the total turnover is now 2300, for the week.
----
Bills @ Dolphins

330 @ 14/1 on "the Bills to win by 3 "
370 @ 25/1 on "the Bills to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

250 @ 18/1 on "the Bills to win by 7 "
400 @ 30/1 on "the Bills to win by 7 x under 60.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1350, and the total turnover is now 3650, for the week
----
Bengals @ Jets

650 @ 14/1 on "the Bengals to win by 3 "
600 @ 16/1 on "the Bengals to win by 3 x under 62.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1250, and the total turnover is now 4900, for the week.
----
Lions @ Vikings

370 @ 14/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 "
380 @ 25/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

410 @ 20/1 on "the Vikings to win by 7 "
430 @ 30/1 on "the Vikings to win by 7 x under 60.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1590, and the total turnover is now 6490, for the week.
----

I will write the rest of my "week 3" bets, after todays' Bills game, or maybe at half time.
Update / " the rest of week 3 "
----
Chiefs @ Colts

200 @ 12/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 3 "
300 @ 20/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

300 @ 18/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 7 "
300 @ 25/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 7 x under 60.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1100, and the total turnover is now 7590, for the week.
----
Raiders @ Titans

330 @ 14/1 on "the Titans to win by 3 "
300 @ 18/1 on "the Titans to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

330 @ 14/1 on "the Raiders to win by 3 "
300 @ 18/1 on "the Raiders to win by 3 x under 58.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1260, and the total turnover is now 8850, for the week.
----
Saints @ Panthers

240 @ 11/1 on "the Saints to win by 3 "
220 @ 14/1 on "the Saints to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 460, and the total turnover is now 9310, for the week.
----
Eagles @ Commanders

260 @ 14/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 "
280 @ 33/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 x under 50.5 for the match "

280 @ 20/1 on "the Eagles to win by 7 "
310 @ 30/1 on "the Eagles to win by 7 x under 60.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1130, and the total turnover is now 10440, for the week.
----
Jaguars @ Chargers

420 @ 14/1 on "the Chargers to win by 3 "
380 @ 20/1 on "the Chargers to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

170 @ 16/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 "
200 @ 25/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 x under 53.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 1170, and the total turnover is now 11610, for the week.
----
Falcons @ Seahawks

210 @ 12/1 on "the Seahawks to win by 3 "
160 @ 18/1 on "the Seahawks to win by 3 x under 50.5 for the match "

200 @ 14/1 on "the Falcons to win by 3 "

Turnover for this game is 570, and the total turnover is now 12180, for the week.
----
Rams @ Cardinals

310 @ 10/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 "
340 @ 16/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 650, and the total turnover is now 12830, for the week.
----
49ers @ Broncos

220 @ 10/1 on "the 49ers to win by 2 or 3 "
240 @ 14/1 on "the 49ers to win by 2 or 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 460, and the total turnover is now 13290, for the week.
----
Cowboys @ Giants

140 @ 18/1 on "the Cowboys to win by 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

Turnover for this game is 140, and the total turnover is now 13430, for the week.
----
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 19, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 2:43:29 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Week 3:
(Partial Quote for relevance)
Jaguars @ Chargers

170 @ 16/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 "
200 @ 25/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 x under 53.5 for the match "
----
Falcons @ Seahawks

160 @ 18/1 on "the Seahawks to win by 3 x under 50.5 for the match "
----
(Partial Quote for relevance)
link to original post


No winning bets this week, so far.
But I have cashed out the above bets for a total of ~$107.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:02:54 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Week 3:
(Partial Quote for relevance)
Rams @ Cardinals

310 @ 10/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 "
340 @ 16/1 on "the Rams to win by 2 or 3 x under 56.5 for the match "

(Partial Quote for relevance)
link to original post


Cashed out these bets just now, for ~ 241
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 26th, 2022 at 8:56:54 PM permalink
This weeks' result(s):

All of the bets lost*** this week

***: -13,189 = -13,430 + 241 (in cashed out bets)

----
P/L summary:

Previous Turnover: 7650
Previous Profit / (Loss): 4220

Week 3 Turnover: 13430
Week 3 Profit / (Loss): (13189)

Current Turnover: 21,080
Current Profit / (Loss): (8969)
% Returns (Profit/Turnover): -42.5%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 26th, 2022 at 9:31:00 PM permalink
Note: The average bet size is lower this week (the previous weeks' bets were about 1.5 times bigger than they should have been).
----

Week 4:
----
Dolphins @ Bengals

560 @ 11/1 on "the Bengals to win by 2 or 3 "

Turnover for this game is 560.
----
Vikings @ Saints

270 @ 12/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 "

Turnover for this game is 270, and the total turnover is now 830 for the week.
----
Bills @ Ravens

300 @ 14/1 on "the Bills to win by 3 "
270 @ 18/1 on "the Bills to win by 7 "

Turnover for this game is 570, and the total turnover is now 1,400 for the week.
----
Bears @ Giants

400 @ 14/1 on "the Giants to win by 3 "

Turnover for this game is 400, and the total turnover is now 1,800 for the week.
----
Jaguars @ Eagles

410 @ 14/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 "
340 @ 18/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 and Under 59.5 points "

180 @ 16/1 on "the Eagles to win by 7 "
160 @ 20/1 on "the Eagles to win by 7 and Under 63.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 1,090, and the total turnover is now 2,890 for the week.
----
Chargers @ Texans

285 @ 12/1 on "the Chargers to win by 3 "
245 @ 16/1 on "the Chargers to win by 3 and Under 59.5 points "

94 @ 16/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 "
86 @ 18/1 on "the Chargers to win by 7 and Under 65.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 710, and the total turnover is now 3,600 for the week.
----
Seahawks @ Lions

315 @ 14/1 on "the Lions to win by 3 "
235 @ 22/1 on "the Lions to win by 3 and Under 56.5 points "

190 @ 18/1 on "the Lions to win by 7 "
150 @ 25/1 on "the Lions to win by 7 and Under 57.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 890, and the total turnover is now 4,490 for the week.
----
Titans @ Colts

275 @ 12/1 on "the Colts to win by 3 "
225 @ 16/1 on "the Colts to win by 3 and Under 57.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 500, and the total turnover is now 4,990 for the week.
----
Commanders @ Cowboys

330 @ 14/1 on "the Cowboys to win by 3 "
290 @ 16/1 on "the Cowboys to win by 3 and Under 61.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 620, and the total turnover is now 5,610 for the week.
----
Broncos @ Raiders

200 @ 16/1 on "the Raiders to win by 3 and Under 65.5 points "
180 @ 18/1 on "the Raiders to win by 3 and Under 57.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 380, and the total turnover is now 5,990 for the week.
----
Rams @ 49ers

190 @ 16/1 on "the Rams to win by 3"

320 @ 18/1 on "the 49ers to win by 3 and Under 58.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 510, and the total turnover is now 6,500 for the week.
----
Cardinals @ Panthers

250 @ 18/1 on "the Cardinals to win by 3 and Under 60.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 250, and the total turnover is now 6,750 for the week.
----
Patriots @ Packers

645 @ 10/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 "
555 @ 12/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 and Under 58.5 points "

Turnover for this game is 1,200, and the total turnover is now 7,950 for the week.
----
I forgot one:

Jets @ Steelers

250 @ 10/1 on "the Steelers to win by 2 or 3 "

Turnover for this game is 250, and the total turnover is now 8,200 for the week.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 27th, 2022 at 6:11:57 AM permalink
I must have missed it…. What is ‘turnover’?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 27th, 2022 at 1:54:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I must have missed it…. What is ‘turnover’?
link to original post


In this case, it is just the total amount you have invested (so it is good to know for ROI %'s , etc).

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Turnover for this game is 250, and the total turnover is now 8,200 for the week.
link to original post


A couple more bets, below:
----
Patriots @ Packers

270 @ 30/1 on "the Packers to win by 7 and Over 3.5 points in the first Quarter"

... the total turnover is now 8,470 for the week.
----
Browns @ Falcons

200 @ 16/1 on "the Browns to win by 2 or 3 and Over 17.5 points in the first Half"

... the total turnover is now 8,670 for the week.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 1st, 2022 at 6:01:23 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
... the total turnover is now 8,670 for the week.
link to original post


Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Vikings @ Saints

270 @ 12/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 "
(snip)
link to original post



Had another bet on the above game

270 @ 14/1 "the Vikings to win by 2 or 3 x Under 27.5 in the 1st half "

... the total turnover is now 8,940 for the week
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 2nd, 2022 at 1:58:01 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Patriots @ Packers

270 @ 30/1 on "the Packers to win by 7 and Over 3.5 points in the first Quarter"
(snip)
link to original post


Cashed out of this bet for about $33.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 2nd, 2022 at 9:50:19 PM permalink
This weeks' winning*** bets, so far (counting the Rams @ 49ers game as a loss for now, in the figures below):

Note: I will change the "Draft P/L summary" in another post, if any of the Rams/49ers bets win.

***: ...and one bet that lost overall, but I am counting it as part of the collect^^^ from now on (see below)
^^^: I am using the term collect now, since I find the math a little bit easier that way (the "Turnover" and "P/L" figures etc, should still be the same).

----
"Winning Bets":
270 @ 12/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 " - collect 3,510
270 @ 14/1 "the Vikings to win by 2 or 3 x Under 27.5 in the 1st half " - collect 4,050
300 @ 14/1 on "the Bills to win by 3 " - collect 4,500
645 @ 10/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 " - collect 7,095
555 @ 12/1 on "the Packers to win by 2 or 3 and Under 58.5 points " - collect 7,215
270 @ 30/1 on "the Packers to win by 7 and Over 3.5 points in the first Quarter" - collect $33***

Week 4 Profit / (Loss): 17,463 ( "Collect" - "Week 4 Turnover" = 26,403 - 8,940)

----
(Draft) P/L Summary:

Previous Turnover: 21,080
Previous Profit / (Loss): (8,969)

Week 4 Turnover: 8,940
Week 4 Profit / (Loss): 17,463

Current Turnover: 30,020
Current Profit / (Loss): 8,494
% Returns (Profit/Turnover): +28.3%
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 3rd, 2022 at 3:50:13 AM permalink
Week 5:
----
Colts @ Broncos

640 @ 14/1 on "the Broncos to win by 3 "

Turnover for this game is 640.
----
Giants @ Packers

380 @ 14/1 on "the Packers to win by 3 and under 61.5"
350 @ 16/1 on "the Packers to win by 3 and under 56.5"

Turnover for this game is 730, and the total turnover is now 1,370 for the week.
----
Bears @ Vikings

530 @ 16/1 on "the Vikings to win by 3 and under 56.5"

Turnover for this game is 530, and the total turnover is now 1,900 for the week.
----
Texans @ Jaguars

560 @ 14/1 on "the Jaguars to win by 3 and under 63.5"

Turnover for this game is 560, and the total turnover is now 2,460 for the week.
----
Dolphins @ Jets

285 @ 16/1 on "the Dolphins to win by 3 and under 64.5"
265 @ 18/1 on "the Dolphins to win by 3 and under 58.5"

Turnover for this game is 550, and the total turnover is now 3,010 for the week.
----
Steelers @ Bills

210 @ 16/1 on "the Bills to win by 3"
590 @ 20/1 on "the Bills to win by 3 and under 64.5"

580 @ 20/1 on "the Bills to win by 7"

Turnover for this game is 1,380, and the total turnover is now 4,390 for the week.
----
Seahawks @ Saints

700 @ 14/1 on "the Saints to win by 3"

Turnover for this game is 700, and the total turnover is now 5,090 for the week.
----
49ers @ Panthers

450 @ 14/1 on "the 49ers to win by 3"
400 @ 16/1 on "the 49ers to win by 3 and under 59.5"

Turnover for this game is 850, and the total turnover is now 5,940 for the week.
----
Eagles @ Cardinals

250 @ 20/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 and under 58.5"
280 @ 18/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 and under 64.5"

Turnover for this game is 530, and the total turnover is now 6,470 for the week.
----
Falcons @ Buccaneers

345 @ 16/1 on "the Buccaneers to win by 3 and under 67.5"
375 @ 14/1 on "the Buccaneers to win by 3"

Turnover for this game is 720, and the total turnover is now 7,190 for the week.
----
Raiders @ Chiefs

450 @ 22/1 on "the Chiefs to win by 7"

Turnover for this game is 450, and the total turnover is now 7,640 for the week.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 10th, 2022 at 10:34:42 PM permalink
"Winning Bets":
250 @ 20/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 and under 58.5" - collect 5,250
280 @ 18/1 on "the Eagles to win by 3 and under 64.5" - collect 5,320

Week 5 Profit / (Loss): 2,930 ( "Collect" - "Week 5 Turnover" = 10,570 - 7,640)

----
P/L Summary:

Previous Turnover: 30,020
Previous Profit / (Loss): 8,494

Week 5 Turnover: 7,640
Week 5 Profit / (Loss): 2,930

Current Turnover: 37,660
Current Profit / (Loss): 11,424
% Returns (Profit/Turnover): +30.3%

----
Other:
I can't get these types of bets on anymore with my account(s), so I am probably not going to post to this thread anymore.
Ace2
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October 10th, 2022 at 11:30:24 PM permalink
I went 9-6-1 this week.
It’s all about making that GTA
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