Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown 2022

Baltimore was a hotbed of Southern support, whereas the rest of the state favored the Union. Lee and his troops thought they'd be welcomed as conquering heroes when he went north in 1862 but was mostly met with hostility.

Quote: billryan

Baltimore was a hotbed of Southern support, whereas the rest of the state favored the Union. Lee and his troops thought they'd be welcomed as conquering heroes when he went north in 1862 but was mostly met with hostility.
link to original post

however, Maryland was a slave state
throughout Maryland there were and still are tiny little black communities where land was given to African Americans as compensation for slavery

even in rich, white Chevy Chase - there is one street - Hawkins Lane - which for over 150 years has been all black

.

Delaware was a slave state, as well. Yet both Maryland and Delaware raised many troops for the National cause. Newt Gringrich wrote a series of alternative history novels where southern-leaning Marylanders rise up during Lee's invasion, overthrow the Maryland legislature and join the Confederacy, effectively surrounding DC and putting the Capitol under siege.

_____________


many think the best horses in the nation are running in the Kentucky Derby
that's not correct - they are the best 3 year olds
generally speaking, they could not compete well with the top older horses
right now, the best horse in the nation imo is the 4 year old Life is Good
he did rather poorly in the Dubai Cup overseas - I give him a pass on that - the trip may have been very stressful
prior to that he won 5 out of 6 graded stakes races finishing 2nd in the other one

but the general public does not get very excited about even the most prestigious races for the older horses
the Breeders Cup may be the exception - but it still does not rate up their with the Derby
the Win, Place, Show pool in the last Breeders Cup was about $3 milion. in the Derby just run it was about $75 million

only the Triple Crown events really get their motors running


.

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


many think the best horses in the nation are running in the Kentucky Derby
that's not correct - they are the best 3 year olds
generally speaking, they could not compete well with the top older horses
right now, the best horse in the nation imo is the 4 year old Life is Good
he did rather poorly in the Dubai Cup overseas - I give him a pass on that - the trip may have been very stressful
prior to that he won 5 out of 6 graded stakes races finishing 2nd in the other one

but the general public does not get very excited about even the most prestigious races for the older horses
the Breeders Cup may be the exception - but it still does not rate up their with the Derby
the Win, Place, Show pool in the last Breeders Cup was about $3 milion. in the Derby just run it was about $75 million

only the Triple Crown events really get their motors running


.
link to original post

I think a lot of that apathy is self-inflicted as few horses that capture the public imagination retire as soon as they get popular. I understand their potential at stud but I think racing would be better off with its champions actually running.

______________


this is a post about jockey skill

jockey skill is sometimes underrated as a factor -
of course the sharps know that jockey skill is very important and usually it is correctly factored into the odds
but with a race like the Derby, with so much soft money being bet (those who only bet the Triple Crown races) this may not be the case

the top 2 jockeys in the nation are Irad Ortiz Jr., and Flavien Pratt

overall - based on thousands and thousands of races - the favorite will finish in the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) - 67% of the time

someone seeing this might think - wow - if I just bet every fave to show I'll have a nice profit
unfortunately it's not that easy - faves usually pay less than even money to show and many times way less - such as $2.10 - a horrible payout on a $2.00 bet

incredibly, these top 2 jockeys have finished in the money 64 and 63% of the time this year

of course, they don't get the favorite in every race -

I just looked at Ortiz's last 30 races - he was only on the fave 9 times

the stats from these top 2 are so very, very impressive

jockey skill is not easy to see, but if a person takes the time to watch carefully an entire race from a great jock closely, it can really be appreciated


.

______________


good news imo for bettors hoping to get some value from the top horses running in the Preakness

the great filly Secret Oath will try the boys

the crowd loves fillies in these races and she's likely to get plenty of play causing the odds on the other great ones to be higher than if she was not running

as great as she is, I don't believe she will be able to handle the Colts in this one


.

I'm on Early Voting (if he runs). And I can get a fair price.

______________


Rich Strike will not run in the Preakness___________kind of disappointing

his owner says that he doesn't want to push him too hard

the Triple Crown series is the exception - usually the top horses don't run with only 2 weeks off

usually they won't race again for at least 4 weeks

running every 2 weeks is for the cheap horses - the claimers


.

Quote: lilredrooster

______________


Rich Strike will not run in the Preakness___________kind of disappointing

his owner says that he doesn't want to push him too hard

the Triple Crown series is the exception - usually the top horses don't run with only 2 weeks off

usually they won't race again for at least 4 weeks

running every 2 weeks is for the cheap horses - the claimers


.
link to original post

Ironically, Rich Strike was a claimer.