ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 21st, 2022 at 1:00:20 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


Cancelled / Amended Bets:
----
49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon

----.
Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.

---
Other New Bet(s):

Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
link to original post



Ksddjd,

Where are you making these bets that they are allowing you to cancel them?
link to original post


Most of the bets I have are with >>> bet365(Australia)

Note 1: I can't cancel my Bucs bet now, because I had that one with a book that doesn't allow it
Note 2: I probably won't cancel my Bengals bet because I think I have used that feature "too much" this week, even though the odds look like they will move slightly against me for that one (hopefully not).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 22nd, 2022 at 2:34:30 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Packers $4.62
Chiefs $4.82
Bills $7.3
Titans $10.2
Buccaneers $7.43
Rams $10.8
Bengals $21.9
49ers $16.0

(snip)
link to original post


Update:

Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Packers $4.51
Chiefs $5.01
Bills $7.25
Titans $9.67
Buccaneers $7.38
Rams $10.4
Bengals $22.1
49ers $16.6

Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 22nd, 2022 at 3:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: Gundy

Wait . . . . what?

Canceled bets? How? Where?
link to original post


Here is a link > link < for the the game on the 25th of January last year ("Australia time").

. Notice how the bet in the link has $3445.01 for the "stake" (bottom left) and 3445.01 as the "cash out" figure (bottom right).

"How": The "cash out" figure is based on the "current fair value and the odds that I take at the time of the bet", eg if I took $2.65 and it goes to $3.00 then I would probably lose about $400*** if I wanted to "cash out" early.

***: In this "hypothetical example, using the bet of $3445 , I probably would have been able to "cash out" $3043 if the odds went to $3 and I decided to "cash out".

"Where": see reply in post >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36817-super-bowl-lvi-estimated-odds/14/#post838634
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 23rd, 2022 at 3:28:06 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)
link to original post


Update:
(snip)
link to original post


Update 2:

Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Packers Out
Chiefs $4.4
Bills $5.3
Titans Out
Buccaneers $4.8
Rams $7.4
Bengals $10.5
49ers $6.9

Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 23rd, 2022 at 12:41:48 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Was: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
Now: 8120 to win 5800 on the Bucs, Money Line
(snip)
link to original post


I locked in a loss of 3480 on this game, by betting live on the Rams @ -200 (they are looking too good thus far).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 23rd, 2022 at 3:09:50 PM permalink
O oh, here comes Brady and the Bucs
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 23rd, 2022 at 10:52:32 PM permalink
Update (after Divisional Round):

Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Chiefs $2.34
Rams $3.08
Bengals $11
49ers $6.35

Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

----
Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Conf. Championship":

Bengals (+8) : ~$4.20 (+320) / Chiefs (-8) : ~$1.31 (-320)

Note: I originally had the Bengals between a +4.5 and +5 underdog (if both teams were near "full strength").

1: $3450 to win $3000 on the Chiefs @ -6.5

2(a): $511 to win $12775 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and under 63.5 points
2(b): $289 to win $13005 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and over 57.5 points

3(a): $364 to win $10192 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and under 63.5 points
3(b): $156 to win $10296 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and over 55.5 points

----
Update (235 am, Pac Time):

49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)

I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:

1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points

2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points

3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 24, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 25th, 2022 at 4:23:39 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)

I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:

1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points

2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points

3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
link to original post


I usually don't bet much on half's and quarters, but below are some more bets that I had:

4: 1st Half: 1650 to win 1500 on the Rams @ -3
5: 3rd Quarter: 1000 to win 1200 on the Rams @ -0.5
6: 4th Quarter: 1000 to win 1050 on the Rams @ -0.5

Note 1: I think the Rams should be about -3.75 for the 1st Half.
Note 2: I think the Rams should be about -1.75 for the 2nd Half (I can't bet on the 2nd half, so I had to bet on 3rd and 4th Quarter instead).
Note 3: These figures are based on my "-5.5 estimated line for the Rams"

----
Also, if you like the Rams, you should take the -165 at the Peppermill***

***: Assuming the odds in the link here >>> Vegas Insider <<< are correct (as at "Tue, Jan 25 07:20 PM EDT")

----
Update (~435 PM, Pac Time):
According the "Vegas Insider" Link above, you can get the Rams -110 @ -2.5 for the first half with the same book (too bad the best I can get is -3, with the books that I have access to).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 25, 2022
Marcusclark66
Marcusclark66
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January 25th, 2022 at 7:14:19 PM permalink
Might be wrong but as I said a while back, the Chiefs are going to the super bowl. I would say it will be the Chefs and the Rams.
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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 25th, 2022 at 10:19:24 PM permalink
Quote: Marcusclark66

Might be wrong but as I said a while back, the Chiefs are going to the super bowl. I would say it will be the Chefs and the Rams.
link to original post


Probably, but anything can happen.
Going just by the current Betfair prices, the rough odds of a Chiefs x Rams Super Bowl is +112 (so therefore the odds of any other combo is about -112).

Also, I am glad that I didn't bet on any Super Bowl futures, as the Chiefs are the only ones left out of the ones that I originally liked (see original post here >>> original post )

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