Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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Cancelled / Amended Bets:
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49ers: ~$2.90 (+190) / Packers: ~$1.53 (-190)
Was: Cancelled
Now: 4000 to win 8400 on the 49ers, Money Line
Reason: I thought the odds would move against me, but I don't think that will happen anytime soon
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Bills: ~$2.02 (+102) / Chiefs: ~$1.98 (-102)
Was: See > link to original post
Now: Back to just 5900 to win 7980 on the Bills, Money Line
Reason: I thought the Chiefs would get to -2,5 / -3, now I don't think it will get to that, at this time.
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Other New Bet(s):
Bills / Chiefs Total Under 54.5: 1100 to win 1000 (I normally don't bet on totals, but I had the bet just because I saw a slow/stale total that was still 54.5).
700 to win 12600 on the Bills to win by 3
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Ksddjd,
Where are you making these bets that they are allowing you to cancel them?
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Most of the bets I have are with >>> bet365(Australia)
Note 1: I can't cancel my Bucs bet now, because I had that one with a book that doesn't allow it
Note 2: I probably won't cancel my Bengals bet because I think I have used that feature "too much" this week, even though the odds look like they will move slightly against me for that one (hopefully not).
Quote: ksdjdj
Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds Packers $4.62 Chiefs $4.82 Bills $7.3 Titans $10.2 Buccaneers $7.43 Rams $10.8 Bengals $21.9 49ers $16.0
(snip)
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Update:
Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
---|---|
Packers | $4.51 |
Chiefs | $5.01 |
Bills | $7.25 |
Titans | $9.67 |
Buccaneers | $7.38 |
Rams | $10.4 |
Bengals | $22.1 |
49ers | $16.6 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Quote: GundyWait . . . . what?
Canceled bets? How? Where?
link to original post
Here is a link > link < for the the game on the 25th of January last year ("Australia time").
. Notice how the bet in the link has $3445.01 for the "stake" (bottom left) and 3445.01 as the "cash out" figure (bottom right).
"How": The "cash out" figure is based on the "current fair value and the odds that I take at the time of the bet", eg if I took $2.65 and it goes to $3.00 then I would probably lose about $400*** if I wanted to "cash out" early.
***: In this "hypothetical example, using the bet of $3445 , I probably would have been able to "cash out" $3043 if the odds went to $3 and I decided to "cash out".
"Where": see reply in post >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36817-super-bowl-lvi-estimated-odds/14/#post838634
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdj
(snip)
link to original post
Update:
(snip)
link to original post
Update 2:
Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
---|---|
Packers | Out |
Chiefs | $4.4 |
Bills | $5.3 |
Titans | Out |
Buccaneers | $4.8 |
Rams | $7.4 |
Bengals | $10.5 |
49ers | $6.9 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Was: 8100 to win 5400 on the Bucs, Money Line
Now: 8120 to win 5800 on the Bucs, Money Line
(snip)
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I locked in a loss of 3480 on this game, by betting live on the Rams @ -200 (they are looking too good thus far).
Team To Win Super Bowl | Estimated Odds |
---|---|
Chiefs | $2.34 |
Rams | $3.08 |
Bengals | $11 |
49ers | $6.35 |
Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.
Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
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Early Game Odds Estimates and Bets - "Conf. Championship":
Bengals (+8) : ~$4.20 (+320) / Chiefs (-8) : ~$1.31 (-320)
Note: I originally had the Bengals between a +4.5 and +5 underdog (if both teams were near "full strength").
1: $3450 to win $3000 on the Chiefs @ -6.5
2(a): $511 to win $12775 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and under 63.5 points
2(b): $289 to win $13005 on the Chiefs to win by 3 and over 57.5 points
3(a): $364 to win $10192 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and under 63.5 points
3(b): $156 to win $10296 on the Chiefs to win by 7 and over 55.5 points
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Update (235 am, Pac Time):
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:
1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points
2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
49ers (+5.5) : ~$3.24 (+224) / Rams (-5.5) : ~$1.45 (-224)
I will add 49ers and Rams game "odds estimate" later, below are some of the special bets I have had already:
1(a): $612 to win $15300 on the Rams to win by 3 and under 56.5 points
1(b): $284 to win $15620 on the Rams to win by 3 and over 51.5 points
2(a): $110 to win $3080 on the Rams to win by 7 and under 52.5 points
2(b): $70 to win $3150 on the Rams to win by 7 and over 47.5 points
3: $4200 to win $2400 on the Rams, Money Line (added during the update at 235 am).
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I usually don't bet much on half's and quarters, but below are some more bets that I had:
4: 1st Half: 1650 to win 1500 on the Rams @ -3
5: 3rd Quarter: 1000 to win 1200 on the Rams @ -0.5
6: 4th Quarter: 1000 to win 1050 on the Rams @ -0.5
Note 1: I think the Rams should be about -3.75 for the 1st Half.
Note 2: I think the Rams should be about -1.75 for the 2nd Half (I can't bet on the 2nd half, so I had to bet on 3rd and 4th Quarter instead).
Note 3: These figures are based on my "-5.5 estimated line for the Rams"
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Also, if you like the Rams, you should take the -165 at the Peppermill***
***: Assuming the odds in the link here >>> Vegas Insider <<< are correct (as at "Tue, Jan 25 07:20 PM EDT")
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Update (~435 PM, Pac Time):
According the "Vegas Insider" Link above, you can get the Rams -110 @ -2.5 for the first half with the same book (too bad the best I can get is -3, with the books that I have access to).
Quote: Marcusclark66Might be wrong but as I said a while back, the Chiefs are going to the super bowl. I would say it will be the Chefs and the Rams.
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Probably, but anything can happen.
Going just by the current Betfair prices, the rough odds of a Chiefs x Rams Super Bowl is +112 (so therefore the odds of any other combo is about -112).
Also, I am glad that I didn't bet on any Super Bowl futures, as the Chiefs are the only ones left out of the ones that I originally liked (see original post here >>> original post )