unJon
unJon
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 13th, 2022 at 9:48:15 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
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Stafford is a choker.
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If that's true, then that's part of him being overvalued.

I disagree with that specific assessment, though. He's fifth all-time in fourth quarter comebacks...when all you ever do is play from behind, you're presented with enough opportunities for people to think you're a choker or a comeback magician.
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And 0-3 in the playoffs. Though again, Lions. So let’s see what happens.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 13th, 2022 at 1:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

]

And 0-3 in the playoffs. Though again, Lions. So let’s see what happens.
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That is what I think. Give him three or more chances with a better team to determine.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 13th, 2022 at 3:23:18 PM permalink
I have Stafford around "league average" in the starting QB position.

Out of the teams that had a "Questionable QB" at the time of my previous post, I still think that the value I used for "In or Out" is close to correct (but it is just an opinion).

Also, the Cards @ Rams game looks likely to be the closest on paper (I have it as a "coin-flip" at a neutral site^^^).

^^^: I use 3 points during the regular season and 3.5 points during the playoffs for home field advantage (again just an opinion).

Lastly, below are my "full-strength raw chance" figures for the wild-card weekend (before I blend them into the public betting market, attempt to work out what the "smart punters" are betting on, and take important players out, etc).

Raiders / Bengals: 21 / 79%
Pats / Bills: 34 / 66 %
Eagles / Bucs: 26 / 74%
49ers / Cowboys: 27 / 73%
Steelers / Chiefs: 19 / 81%
Cards / Rams: 38 / 62%

Note: As stated above, I use 3.5 points for home field advantage (this is included in the above "raw chances").
unJon
unJon
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January 13th, 2022 at 3:25:41 PM permalink
Anyone ever look at the old football betting “wisdom” of betting dogs on wildcard weekend and favorites on divisional round weekend?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
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January 13th, 2022 at 4:12:54 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Anyone ever look at the old football betting “wisdom” of betting dogs on wildcard weekend and favorites on divisional round weekend?
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Probably not enough data to draw any conclusions.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 14th, 2022 at 1:03:53 PM permalink
Early Game Bets :

$1050 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -6.5
$1100 to win $1000 on the Patriots @ +4.5
$825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0
$1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0
$1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5

----
Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:

Raiders: ~$4.10 (+310)
Bengals: ~$1.32 (-310)

1: $6600 to win $3000 on the Bengals, money line.
2: $1100 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -5 .
3: Any "early game bets" (see top of post).

Note: Was +269 / -269 Bengals, earlier in the week.

----
Patriots: ~$3.75 (+275)
Bills: ~$1.36 (-275)

1: $6000 to win $3000 on the Bills, money line.
2: $2200 to win $2000 on the Bills @ -4.5.
3: Any other "early game bets" were cancelled (see strike-through at the top of this post).

Note: Was +196 / -196 Bills, earlier in the week.

----
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 15th, 2022 at 7:05:21 PM permalink
Odds Estimate(s) Updates and Bets:

Eagles: ~$3.45 (+245)
Buccaneers: ~$1.41 (-245)

1: $2000 to win $6000 on the Eagles, money line.
2: $2475 to win $2250 on the Eagles @ +8.0 .
3: $825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0, earlier in the week.

Note: My odds estimate was +334 / -334 Buccaneers, earlier in the week.

----
49ers: ~$3.10 (+210)
Cowboys: ~$1.48 (-210)

1: $6600 to win $4000 on the Cowboys, money line.
2: $1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0, earlier in the week.

Note: My odds estimate was +184 / -184 Cowboys, earlier in the week.

----
Will write about my Steelers update, after the Bills game finishes.
Update (about 740 pm, Pac time):

The Bills made a liar out of me, I will watch a recording of the 4th quarter later.

----
Steelers: ~$5.40 (+440)
Chiefs: ~$1.23 (-440)

1: $500 to win $2650 on the Steelers, money line
2: $1000 to win $3000 on the Steelers @ +3.5
3: $2000 to win $2300 on the Steelers @ +10.5
4: $1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0, earlier in the week.

Note: My odds estimate was +488 / -488 Chiefs, earlier in the week.

----
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 15th, 2022 at 8:12:38 PM permalink
I was out having breakfast for the 1st half of the Raiders / Bengals game, so I didn't get to see two of these calls*** in the link below:

https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/story/_/id/33043281/questionable-nfl-playoff-officiating-decisions-happened-which-were-right-came-next

***: see "Errant whistle on Cincy touchdown" and "Raiders start drive at 2-yard line after returner steps out of bounds"

Edit (815 pm, Pac time): I still haven't seen it yet, but going by what was written in the above article it should have been a "replay third-down" for the "Cincy touchdown" one.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 15th, 2022 at 9:40:05 PM permalink
Update (After Saturday's Wild Card Games):



Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Packers $4.52
Chiefs $6.29
Bills $6.60
Titans $9.71
Buccaneers $8.85
Rams $16.3
Cowboys $15.6
Bengals $19.1
49ers $28.9
Patriots Out
Cardinals $42.9
Raiders Out
Steelers $124
Eagles $121


Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 15, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 16th, 2022 at 2:38:26 AM permalink
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/2/

At the time of this post, In the above link it says Dallas is -140 at Treasure Island, anyone know if that is correct ?

Edit (About 1005 am, Pac time, see strike-through): ... anyone know if that was correct ? (it is now -150 according to the above link)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 16, 2022

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