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TomG
TomG
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November 26th, 2021 at 7:15:51 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.



Based on line movement, it is most likely that more money came in on the winning side (Utah) than the losing side. Which means that based on results, the sportsbooks did not have it right, either losing money on it or a lower hold than usual.

Voter rankings in November are generally based on won-loss records (when comparing teams in the same conference). Odds are based on a lot more than just that. Very common to see stuff like this.
DRich
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November 26th, 2021 at 7:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.



Based on line movement, it is most likely that more money came in on the winning side (Utah) than the losing side. Which means that based on results, the sportsbooks did not have it right, either losing money on it or a lower hold than usual.

Voter rankings in November are generally based on won-loss records (when comparing teams in the same conference). Odds are based on a lot more than just that. Very common to see stuff like this.
link to original post



Hopefully someday they will let the odds makers determine the top four teams.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:00:43 AM permalink
Unless ridiculous blowout loss, Georgia is in. Oddsmakers have them at 99% chance to make playoffs. If OK ST wins out they have a bunch more quality wins, and likely surpasses Cincinnati. So Georgia, OSU, Ok St and Cincy if Georgia beats Alabama. If Bama beats Georgia, I think Cincy is out if Ok St wins out. I am just assuming OSU wins out.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:10:00 AM permalink
Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
moses
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:11:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Unless ridiculous blowout loss, Georgia is in. Oddsmakers have them at 99% chance to make playoffs. If OK ST wins out they have a bunch more quality wins, and likely surpasses Cincinnati. So Georgia, OSU, Ok St and Cincy if Georgia beats Alabama. If Bama beats Georgia, I think Cincy is out if Ok St wins out. I am just assuming OSU wins out.
link to original post



Of if Oklahoma wins out. They will mostly have to beat Ok. St back to back.

There could be 5 teams with 1 loss and Cincy with no losses.
moses
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post

I agree. Win your division. Win your conference championship game. Add a play in game between #4 and 5th worst records of conference championship winners. In Notre Dames case. Get in a conference and in a division.
billryan
billryan
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:32:14 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
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November 26th, 2021 at 9:17:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
link to original post



I don’t know, it’s certainly better than it was, I suppose there’s always going to be debate on the fringe of who is in and out no matter where the cutoff is.

It’s just that other than an undefeated team in a power conference, SO MUCH of it is based on the prior opinion of the team going into the season rather than anything objective about which is better this season. The way I understand it even strength of schedule is heavily influenced by the priors, what teams get in is pretty much basing it on polling by a different name.
moses
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November 26th, 2021 at 9:51:21 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
link to original post



I don’t know, it’s certainly better than it was, I suppose there’s always going to be debate on the fringe of who is in and out no matter where the cutoff is.

It’s just that other than an undefeated team in a power conference, SO MUCH of it is based on the prior opinion of the team going into the season rather than anything objective about which is better this season. The way I understand it even strength of schedule is heavily influenced by the priors, what teams get in is pretty much basing it on polling by a different name.
link to original post


The idea of Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC seemed to be the answer of 4 conferences. But Big 12 expansion countered that.
billryan
billryan
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November 26th, 2021 at 11:24:27 AM permalink
Maybe do away with conferences.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
moses
moses
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November 26th, 2021 at 4:46:12 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Maybe do away with conferences.
link to original post



Let everyone make their own schedule. Teams with 0 or 1 loss start an elimination tourney after 9 games.
DRich
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November 27th, 2021 at 3:55:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?


link to original post



Simple, let the Vegas Oddsmakers determine the four teams with the best chance to win. They are more experts than the committee.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
moses
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November 27th, 2021 at 12:39:39 PM permalink
7 teams remain in the conversation.

Georgia in.

Michigan and Alabama win and in.

Oklahoma and Oklahome St. Win 2 and hope.

Cincy and Notre Dame win and help.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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November 27th, 2021 at 12:42:58 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?


link to original post



Simple, let the Vegas Oddsmakers determine the four teams with the best chance to win. They are more experts than the committee.
link to original post



This means Circa, a couple grey area offshores and the bettors that bet the lines into place right? Cuz the rest of Vegas “oddsmakers” are mostly glorified copy and paste artists the way I understand it.

5-6 Florida St. vs 5-6 Florida today. They sure ain’t what they used to be in the Bowden vs Spurrier days.
Last edited by: mcallister3200 on Nov 27, 2021
moses
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November 27th, 2021 at 2:35:12 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?


link to original post



Simple, let the Vegas Oddsmakers determine the four teams with the best chance to win. They are more experts than the committee.
link to original post



This means Circa, a couple grey area offshores and the bettors that bet the lines into place right? Cuz the rest of Vegas “oddsmakers” are mostly glorified copy and paste artists the way I understand it.

5-6 Florida St. vs 5-6 Florida today. They sure ain’t what they used to be in the Bowden vs Spurrier days.
link to original post



Florida goes bowling. Florida State stays home.
billryan
billryan
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November 27th, 2021 at 3:45:05 PM permalink
THE Ohio State got its butt handed to them, opening the door for the Fighting Irish to make the playoffs.

One of the kickers in the Fla-Fla St game just wiffed on an onside kick. I'd never seen that before.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2021 at 4:14:03 PM permalink
Mel Tucker, MSU coach is now signed for the next 10 years for a measly $95 million. Considering James Franklin leading PSU to 7-5 record got him over $100 million I guess Tucker was a bargain.
moses
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November 27th, 2021 at 8:32:09 PM permalink
Quote: moses

7 teams remain in the conversation.

Georgia in.

Michigan and Alabama win and in.

Oklahoma and Oklahome St. Win 2 and hope.

Cincy and Notre Dame win and help.
link to original post



Now 6.

Georgia in.

Michigan and Alabama win and in.

Cincy and Oklahoma St. Win and hope.

Notre Dame. Hope
moses
moses
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November 27th, 2021 at 8:32:14 PM permalink
Quote: moses

7 teams remain in the conversation.

Georgia in.

Michigan and Alabama win and in.

Oklahoma and Oklahome St. Win 2 and hope.

Cincy and Notre Dame win and help.
link to original post



Now 6.

Georgia in.

Michigan and Alabama win and in.

Cincy and Oklahoma St. Win and hope.

Notre Dame. Hope
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