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TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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November 26th, 2021 at 7:15:51 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.



Based on line movement, it is most likely that more money came in on the winning side (Utah) than the losing side. Which means that based on results, the sportsbooks did not have it right, either losing money on it or a lower hold than usual.

Voter rankings in November are generally based on won-loss records (when comparing teams in the same conference). Odds are based on a lot more than just that. Very common to see stuff like this.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
moses
November 26th, 2021 at 7:27:58 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.



Based on line movement, it is most likely that more money came in on the winning side (Utah) than the losing side. Which means that based on results, the sportsbooks did not have it right, either losing money on it or a lower hold than usual.

Voter rankings in November are generally based on won-loss records (when comparing teams in the same conference). Odds are based on a lot more than just that. Very common to see stuff like this.
link to original post



Hopefully someday they will let the odds makers determine the top four teams.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:00:43 AM permalink
Unless ridiculous blowout loss, Georgia is in. Oddsmakers have them at 99% chance to make playoffs. If OK ST wins out they have a bunch more quality wins, and likely surpasses Cincinnati. So Georgia, OSU, Ok St and Cincy if Georgia beats Alabama. If Bama beats Georgia, I think Cincy is out if Ok St wins out. I am just assuming OSU wins out.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:10:00 AM permalink
Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:11:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Unless ridiculous blowout loss, Georgia is in. Oddsmakers have them at 99% chance to make playoffs. If OK ST wins out they have a bunch more quality wins, and likely surpasses Cincinnati. So Georgia, OSU, Ok St and Cincy if Georgia beats Alabama. If Bama beats Georgia, I think Cincy is out if Ok St wins out. I am just assuming OSU wins out.
link to original post



Of if Oklahoma wins out. They will mostly have to beat Ok. St back to back.

There could be 5 teams with 1 loss and Cincy with no losses.
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:19:56 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post

I agree. Win your division. Win your conference championship game. Add a play in game between #4 and 5th worst records of conference championship winners. In Notre Dames case. Get in a conference and in a division.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 26th, 2021 at 8:32:14 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 26th, 2021 at 9:17:53 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
link to original post



I don’t know, it’s certainly better than it was, I suppose there’s always going to be debate on the fringe of who is in and out no matter where the cutoff is.

It’s just that other than an undefeated team in a power conference, SO MUCH of it is based on the prior opinion of the team going into the season rather than anything objective about which is better this season. The way I understand it even strength of schedule is heavily influenced by the priors, what teams get in is pretty much basing it on polling by a different name.
moses
moses
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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November 26th, 2021 at 9:51:21 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: billryan

Quote: mcallister3200

Committee shouldn’t forget their clown uniforms when they make their announcement this year. Whole thing is farcical.
link to original post



Other than expanding the playoffs, how would you go about choosing the four best teams?

It's a better system than we had before. At least the title is decided in a game, not by dueling polls.
I think expanding to eight teams would make things worse as plenty of teams would be claiming the last few spots.
link to original post



I don’t know, it’s certainly better than it was, I suppose there’s always going to be debate on the fringe of who is in and out no matter where the cutoff is.

It’s just that other than an undefeated team in a power conference, SO MUCH of it is based on the prior opinion of the team going into the season rather than anything objective about which is better this season. The way I understand it even strength of schedule is heavily influenced by the priors, what teams get in is pretty much basing it on polling by a different name.
link to original post


The idea of Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC seemed to be the answer of 4 conferences. But Big 12 expansion countered that.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 26th, 2021 at 11:24:27 AM permalink
Maybe do away with conferences.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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