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Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 13th, 2021 at 12:33:03 PM permalink
Quote: moses

Quote: Mission146

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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    It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.
    .
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    So lemme get this straight. You are worried about why people worry so much? 😉 🤔Just kidding Miss.146
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    Yeah, and now you have me worried about why I would worry about other people worrying so much, which is even more worrisome.

    Wow. Just reading that sentence is an existential nightmare. Sometimes being a bit Nihilistic is a positive, because it means that I'm not too worried about it.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    moses
    moses
    Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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    Mission146
    September 13th, 2021 at 12:39:23 PM permalink
    Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:43:22 PM permalink
    Quote: moses

    Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄

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    I can't help but wonder why you worry so much, but I'd better wander into a different thread, or we won't have to wonder why we got Suspended!
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    moses
    moses
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:45:25 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Quote: moses

    Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄

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    I can't help but wonder why you worry so much, but I'd better wander into a different thread, or we won't have to wonder why we got Suspended!
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    😅😅
    TDVegas
    TDVegas
    Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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    September 13th, 2021 at 1:09:09 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Quote: TDVegas

    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.

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    It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.

    Even the best sports bettors have the occasional terrible season, I would think. At least some of them. This isn't even a sports betting based website, we just have a sub-forum for it.

    I'll tell you what I think is the most laughable, if anything at all: turning a nose up at the EV of the game! My guaranteed contribution$ to the game, as of right now, are more than the sum of the Entry Fees. People can have a little fun and do so currently at 200%+ EV...all players assumed equal for the purposes of the statement.
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    They can be fun little contests. No question. I’ve seen people have good seasons. To do so consistently is another subject. I keep forgetting…what’s the break even? 52.25%…?

    I’ve seen seasons of 55% to 58% which I would surmise is decent profit. To do this year in year out is why I think there are only a magical few who can make regular bank. ie, Billy Walters.

    I also believe the touts business is a farce.

    Good luck. Nice of you to front money.
    Mission146
    Mission146
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    TDVegas
    September 13th, 2021 at 1:11:28 PM permalink
    Thanks! It's well worth it. Everyone seems to have a good time.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    DRich
    DRich
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    September 13th, 2021 at 1:50:30 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146


    Wow. Just reading that sentence is an existential nightmare. Sometimes being a bit Nihilistic is a positive, because it means that I'm not too worried about it.

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    Have you ever worried about being a nihillist?
    Order from chaos
    TDVegas
    TDVegas
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    September 13th, 2021 at 11:10:15 PM permalink
    One of the best Monday night NFL games….ever.
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
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    Dieter
    September 13th, 2021 at 11:52:19 PM permalink
    Quote: TDVegas

    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.

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    Exactly what I was thinking. No one claiming to be a pro sport better is going to put their reputation on the line with a chance of losing to guys like Djatc and Mike who use a simple formula to win. That would be crazy especially if you have investors. clients etc. You can't have people thinking all this fancy-dancy Analytics and years of studying, brute force accomplishments and vast football knowledge isn't the bee's knees.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    TomG
    TomG
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    September 14th, 2021 at 6:22:01 PM permalink
    Quote: redietz

    Note to TomG -- if you think I don't understand arbitrage and middles and am arguing against them, you are on serious drugs.



    I never made any comment on making arbitrage betting. If I find +150 when the whole world is painted -140, I'm only betting the -140 if I can get more than one max bet down first. And that usually doesn't happen, and I it probably isn't the right thing to do.

    It is fascinating that you are so quick to jump to the ways other people bet and how there must always be something wrong with it.

    First it was parlays are bad because it is not always the best number. Now it is that betting only the very best numbers can't be worth much because of how challenging it might be and how many barriers there are. It starts to come across as if you just think there is no such thing as making good bets. Which is just weird considering how you have talked so much about all the good bets you have done in the past.

    I do agree that finding profitable numbers is rare. But how rare exactly? 1-in-100? 1-in-1000? Just checking one random MLB game on FanDuel, there looks to be around 100 or so different two-way lines, and dozens more index props or three-way lines. If it is 1-in-100, that means there should be about one good bet per game. If it is 1-in-1,000, that means one good baseball bet per day, just at FD. NLF and NBA have even more numbers. College sports have a lot more games. Now do the same at DraftKings, Circa, WH, MGM, Stations, or whatever other books in whatever state we want. If you don't know the market well enough to know what numbers to check and what to skip so that you can't find a good numbers in 15 minutes and multiple good numbers in 60 minutes, that's on you. Not everyone has that limitation.

    -----

    I generally don't like season long contests, because there is a good chance I'll just want to put my phone away and check out and I'll end up with zeros at least once.

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