2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

It looks like there are exactly TWO players who essentially are playing for nothing in the final week. PlayYourCardsRight, and, of course, SOOPOO. Since exactly .500 will be obtained by using skip weeks, even if I’m perfect I only get to one game below .500, I can’t even challenge for being Mr. Average. At least PYCR has been too GOOD to approach Mr.Average, but not good enough for a top 3 spot.

Quote: scolist

Quote: Mission146

Let’s get that 12-way tie for Most Average!

Congratulations to Scolist on this week’s Perfection Bonus!
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Thank you Mission146 for the acknowledgement!

Best I was hoping for was staying close to the Most Average Club. 8^)!
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The Perfection Bonus might be almost as much with how many people could split the Most Average prize. Besides that, just do the exact opposite this week and you'll be .500 again!

Quote: SOOPOO

It looks like there are exactly TWO players who essentially are playing for nothing in the final week. PlayYourCardsRight, and, of course, SOOPOO. Since exactly .500 will be obtained by using skip weeks, even if I’m perfect I only get to one game below .500, I can’t even challenge for being Mr. Average. At least PYCR has been too GOOD to approach Mr.Average, but not good enough for a top 3 spot.
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There’s always the perfection bonus.

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: EdCollins

I just now noticed that if one less point had been scored in the Vikings/Packers game, mwalz9 would have finished with a perfect 6-0 record this week. As it was, he finished 4-2.
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So close to perfect this week!

4-2 did make me .500 exactly. Hoping I go 3-3 this week. I may just let my girlfriend blind pick 5 teams and hope the law of averages works out.
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Why not use your skip week?
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I already did the week of Christmas. Way too busy to remember to make picks.

Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.

Quote: mwalz9

Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.
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Barring a tie, you guys need to go 3-2, with confidence pick one of the losses, or 2-3, with confidence pick a win. Good luck! I assume Gordon will sit it out securing his averageness….

Well, crud. I can go for the most average prize but attempting to get a 1-4 week. Or I can go for the perfection bonus, by making a confidence pick.

With my luck, I'll go 5-0.

Quote: mwalz9

Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.
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I will indeed be taking my Skip Week on week 18 to preserve my 0.500 record. It's just the most +EV thing I can do.

I have gone 19-5 in the past 4 weeks to raise my terrible picking record up to 0.500, so by having a good stretch run I do have a sense that I earned whatever fraction of the Most Average payout that I receive. Also, I am just a lucky son of a gun, lol.

Needs 0-6
jml24 45 39
scolist 49 43
miplet 51 45

Needs 1-4
Mission146 49 46
IndyJeffrey 51 48

Needs 2-4
Joeman 51 49

Need 3-3
Wizard 47-47
Mwalz9 48-48

Need 3-2
FourFiveFace 50 51
JW17* 47 48 (disqualified)

Needs 5-0
AZDuffman 44 49

Anyone care to estimate what the probabilities are of 1 through 11 winners of the Most Average Prize?

Open questions:
I assume that the Most Average contenders who need a record with an odd number of picks will all be declining to designate a confidence bet, correct?
Will Average contenders be preferring to bet on lines with fractional points (say O/U 47.5) to avoid the slight chance of a push outcome? (I personally would avoid wagering on a +3 spread.)

Good luck to everyone!

(Edited to note that JW17 has unfortunately been DQ'ed.)

Please note that, unfortunately, JW17 is no longer eligible for the Most Average Prize. (Two Skipped Weeks.)

So, your chances of you being the only person to win that prize just went up a little bit, from whatever you estimated earlier. :)

Edit: Whoops. Just now saw that your own post was edited to reflect this.

I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.