SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 5:54:46 AM permalink
It looks like there are exactly TWO players who essentially are playing for nothing in the final week. PlayYourCardsRight, and, of course, SOOPOO. Since exactly .500 will be obtained by using skip weeks, even if Iím perfect I only get to one game below .500, I canít even challenge for being Mr. Average. At least PYCR has been too GOOD to approach Mr.Average, but not good enough for a top 3 spot.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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scolist
January 4th, 2022 at 6:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: scolist

Quote: Mission146

Letís get that 12-way tie for Most Average!

Congratulations to Scolist on this weekís Perfection Bonus!
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Thank you Mission146 for the acknowledgement!

Best I was hoping for was staying close to the Most Average Club. 8^)!
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The Perfection Bonus might be almost as much with how many people could split the Most Average prize. Besides that, just do the exact opposite this week and you'll be .500 again!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 6:00:41 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It looks like there are exactly TWO players who essentially are playing for nothing in the final week. PlayYourCardsRight, and, of course, SOOPOO. Since exactly .500 will be obtained by using skip weeks, even if Iím perfect I only get to one game below .500, I canít even challenge for being Mr. Average. At least PYCR has been too GOOD to approach Mr.Average, but not good enough for a top 3 spot.
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Thereís always the perfection bonus.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 6:16:26 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: EdCollins

I just now noticed that if one less point had been scored in the Vikings/Packers game, mwalz9 would have finished with a perfect 6-0 record this week. As it was, he finished 4-2.
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So close to perfect this week!

4-2 did make me .500 exactly. Hoping I go 3-3 this week. I may just let my girlfriend blind pick 5 teams and hope the law of averages works out.
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Why not use your skip week?
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I already did the week of Christmas. Way too busy to remember to make picks.
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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Mission146gordonm888
January 4th, 2022 at 6:18:54 AM permalink
Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 6:28:20 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.
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Barring a tie, you guys need to go 3-2, with confidence pick one of the losses, or 2-3, with confidence pick a win. Good luck! I assume Gordon will sit it out securing his averagenessÖ.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 4th, 2022 at 7:23:57 AM permalink
Well, crud. I can go for the most average prize but attempting to get a 1-4 week. Or I can go for the perfection bonus, by making a confidence pick.

With my luck, I'll go 5-0.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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January 4th, 2022 at 2:02:30 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Gordon is the only one who can use a skip week to stay at .500. Wiz and myself already used ours.
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I will indeed be taking my Skip Week on week 18 to preserve my 0.500 record. It's just the most +EV thing I can do.

I have gone 19-5 in the past 4 weeks to raise my terrible picking record up to 0.500, so by having a good stretch run I do have a sense that I earned whatever fraction of the Most Average payout that I receive. Also, I am just a lucky son of a gun, lol.

Needs 0-6
jml24 45 39
scolist 49 43
miplet 51 45

Needs 1-4
Mission146 49 46
IndyJeffrey 51 48

Needs 2-4
Joeman 51 49

Need 3-3
Wizard 47-47
Mwalz9 48-48

Need 3-2
FourFiveFace 50 51
JW17* 47 48 (disqualified)

Needs 5-0
AZDuffman 44 49

Anyone care to estimate what the probabilities are of 1 through 11 winners of the Most Average Prize?

Open questions:
I assume that the Most Average contenders who need a record with an odd number of picks will all be declining to designate a confidence bet, correct?
Will Average contenders be preferring to bet on lines with fractional points (say O/U 47.5) to avoid the slight chance of a push outcome? (I personally would avoid wagering on a +3 spread.)

Good luck to everyone!

(Edited to note that JW17 has unfortunately been DQ'ed.)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
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January 4th, 2022 at 2:11:25 PM permalink
Please note that, unfortunately, JW17 is no longer eligible for the Most Average Prize. (Two Skipped Weeks.)

So, your chances of you being the only person to win that prize just went up a little bit, from whatever you estimated earlier. :)

Edit: Whoops. Just now saw that your own post was edited to reflect this.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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January 4th, 2022 at 2:14:33 PM permalink
I have also added Wizard and Mwalz9 to the list, after inadvertently omitting them. I reckon that they have the highest chances of qualifying for the award of anyone on that list.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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