March Madness 2021
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14 members have voted
I don't have to say for this initial post on the topic. However, to start, here is the average seed to advance to each level compared to the historical average.
| End of Round | 2021 | All time |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.56 | 5.83 |
| 2 | 5.88 | 4.55 |
In other words, the average seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen is 5.88, compared to a historical 4.55.
Another point of interest is a 15 seed (Oral Roberts) has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, for only the second time in tournament history.
Unfortunately, my own UCSB got knocked out in the first round.
Just getting things going with this post. Feel free to post anything about the tournament this year.
The question for the poll is who do you think will win?
1. The Pac-12 was much better than the experts and the committee assessed them to be.
2. The Big10 was over-rated. We heard all year that they were the best conference by far, and they got nine (i think) teams into the tourney. After two rounds, only one of those teams is left.
3. The reason why the Big 10 Conference was ranked too high is because it started out the season being ranked high in the pre-season polls -and so everyone in the Big10 got credit for a high "Strength of Schedule" by playing each other - which reinforced the assumption that they were all good teams. A lot of these so-called great teams had 6 to 9 losses and in the NCAA Tourney they went down quickly when they faced good mid-major teams.
**************
Also, I don't believe that any team seeded 12 or lower has ever made the Final Four.
Quote: WizardGood year for upsets in March Madness.
I don't have to say for this initial post on the topic. However, to start, here is the average seed to advance to each level compared to the historical average.
End of Round 2021 All time 1 6.56 5.83 2 5.88 4.55
In other words, the average seed to make it to the Sweet Sixteen is 5.88, compared to a historical 4.55.
Another point of interest is a 15 seed (Oral Roberts) has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, for only the second time in tournament history.
Unfortunately, my own UCSB got knocked out in the first round.
Just getting things going with this post. Feel free to post anything about the tournament this year.
The question for the poll is who do you think will win?
I read the sum of the seeds in the sweet 16 is the largest ever in NCAA tournament history.
Quote: gordonm888There is a lesson to be learned from the the first week of results of the Tournament.
1. The Pac-12 was much better than the experts and the committee assessed them to be.
2. The Big10 was over-rated. We heard all year that they were the best conference by far, and they got nine (i think) teams into the tourney. After two rounds, only one of those teams is left.
3. The reason why the Big 10 Conference was ranked too high is because it started out the season being ranked high in the pre-season polls -and so everyone in the Big10 got credit for a high "Strength of Schedule" by playing each other - which reinforced the assumption that they were all good teams. A lot of these so-called great teams had 6 to 9 losses and in the NCAA Tourney they went down quickly when they faced good mid-major teams.
**************
Also, I don't believe that any team seeded 12 or lower has ever made the Final Four.
Big 12 was similarly overrated. Seven Big 12 teams were in. While 6 made it through the first round, only Baylor made it to the sweet 16.
Quote: gordonm888Also, I don't believe that any team seeded 12 or lower has ever made the Final Four.
Correct. A few 11s have, but no 12-16s have. Keep in mind that the tournament didn't even have teams seeded 12 until 1980 (and didn't have 16-seeds until 1985).
Quote: unJonI read the sum of the seeds in the sweet 16 is the largest ever in NCAA tournament history.
That is true.
Quote: gordonm888Also, I don't believe that any team seeded 12 or lower has ever made the Final Four.
This is true.
The lowest seed to make it to the Final Four is 11, which has happened four times.
Here is the highest seed to make each round:
2: 16
3: (Sweet 16): 16
4: (Elite 8): 12
5: (Final 4): 11
6: (championship game): 8
7: (winner): 8
Go Terps
I think MD has a goot shot at the Natty
I follow this team closely and it's one of the best MD teams I have ever seen
Quote: terapinedMaryland Vs Alabama today
Go Terps
Amen!
Quote: terapinedMaryland Vs Alabama today
Go Terps
I think MD has a goot shot at the Natty
I follow this team closely and it's one of the best MD teams I have ever seen
Didn’t they play two days ago and Alabama crushed MD?
Edit: oh you mean women’s ncaa tourney. So coincidental that the men’s and women’s playing same game.
Quote: unJon
I read the sum of the seeds in the sweet 16 is the largest ever in NCAA tournament history.
I don’t think anyone played their full schedule. Some teams missed more games than others. Strength of schedule was unbalanced even in the same conference. It was harder to seed this year’s tournament and they didn’t seed it as well as a typical year.
I agree. I also think the fact that schools had limited, if any, out-of-conference matchups, it made it harder to accurately compare conferences.Quote: JimRockfordI don’t think anyone played their full schedule. Some teams missed more games than others. Strength of schedule was unbalanced even in the same conference. It was harder to seed this year’s tournament and they didn’t seed it as well as a typical year.
I thought the highest (or is it lowest -- I can never get that straight!) seed to make the Sweet 16 was #15 FL Gulf Coast. The only 16 seed to beat a 1 was a few years ago when Virginia got beaten by UMBC, but they didn't advance to the round of 16.Quote: Wizard...
Here is the highest seed to make each round:
3: (Sweet 16): 16
...
Quote: unJonDidn’t they play two days ago and Alabama crushed MD?
Edit: oh you mean women’s ncaa tourney. So coincidental that the men’s and women’s playing same game.
I was confused also. I knew the men's game was on hold until the weekend.
Quote: DRichI was confused also. I knew the men's game was on hold until the weekend.
MD Woman won their game 100 to 64
This is the highest scoring team in the nation Men or Women averaging a stunning 91.5 a game for the season. It's the highest score in program history men or women and MD has had some great teams.
Averaging 99 for the Tournament
They do it with beautiful basketball. Passing.
They all score and share
Quote: terapinedMD Woman won their game 100 to 64
This is the highest scoring team in the nation Men or Women averaging a stunning 91.5 a game for the season. It's the highest score in program history men or women and MD has had some great teams.
Averaging 99 for the Tournament
They do it with beautiful basketball. Passing.
They all score and share
It’s a great team and a great win.
Gonzaga is averaging more than 91.5 ppg this year though.
After WKU's Big Red, Otto the Orange may be my favorite college mascot. (Followed closely by the Stanford Tree -- though I hear he's not 'official'.)
Quote: JoemanBTW, I voted the 'Bigot' option because I'm taking the field. Go, Orange!
After WKU's Big Red, Otto the Orange may be my favorite college mascot. (Followed closely by the Stanford Tree -- though I hear he's not 'official'.)
Big Red and Otto are great mascots. I also like Brutus the Buckeye just because he is a seed and a mascot. Do you remember the big fight between the Stanford Tree and the Cal mascot. It was classic.
No, (just googled it, though -- pretty hilarious) but I do remember the Hokie Bird beating up Sebastian the Ibis!Quote: DRichDo you remember the big fight between the Stanford Tree and the Cal mascot. It was classic.
Quote: daveyandersen1The sum of the seeds in the sweet 16 is the biggest in history??THAT is a cool fact..It kind of tells you that the So called experts aren't any more knowlegable than most of us...Thats why when I make my picks I NEVER heed the advice of these overcompensated Bums,,,
Since it’s a comparison of “so called experts” on this year vs other years, all it can really tell you is that the “so called experts” seem to have done worse this year than they did in previous years.
Quote: daveyandersen1The sum of the seeds in the sweet 16 is the biggest in history??THAT is a cool fact..It kind of tells you that the So called experts aren't any more knowlegable than most of us...Thats why when I make my picks I NEVER heed the advice of these overcompensated Bums,,,
The experts only need to be 5% better than average to make money. Of course with that slim margin they are not going to win every time.
MD vs TX
ESPN
9pm est 6pm pst
Go Terps
High scoring team averaging over 90 a game
Motto
All gas, no brakes
Quote: terapinedBig game tonight
MD vs TX
ESPN
9pm est 6pm pst
Go Terps
High scoring team averaging over 90 a game
Motto
All gas, no brakes
I just can't sit through a women's game. I will check the scores at the end of the night but watching it is painful. The only women's sports I actually watch are tennis and volleyball.
Quote: DRichI just can't sit through a women's game. I will check the scores at the end of the night but watching it is painful. The only women's sports I actually watch are tennis and volleyball.
The Mens game is faster and much more athletic
on the flip side, too much standing around on offence while a one on one matchup is going on
No doubt a slower and less athletic game on the Womens side
their flip is a more beautiful game with passing
Meanwhile, a lot of so called experts thought the Big-10 was the best conference, and although Michigan has advanced to the elite 8, the conference as a whole didn't do very well at all.
I am going to follow up my Pac-10 best conference comment with a little bit of money....for entertainment purposes only of course. Taking all 3 Pac-10 teams plus points, Oregon State +8 vs Houston today and USC +9 vs Gonzaga and UCLA +8 vs Michigan both tomorrow. The remaining game, I will lay the 7.5 points with Baylor.
Also going to bet Moneyline on all 3 Pac-10 teams @ +300, +350, +260, looking for at least 1 to win outright.
nothing big. $220 on the point lines, $100 on moneylines.
I don't use sportsbetting apps, so since I am running out to sportsbook anyway, I will take the flyers over sabers $190 on moneyline (-190) and $100 on the puck line (+135). Sabers have lost 17 in a row. LOL. Wish I could say I bet them all, but don't really bet hockey or anything regularly. I have won riding the tide in a couple games against the sabers in the last week. The streak will end sometime, hopefully not tonight.
Try watching womens Fast Pitch softball [div 1] Those women can play...Quote: DRichI just can't sit through a women's game. I will check the scores at the end of the night but watching it is painful. The only women's sports I actually watch are tennis and volleyball.
Quote: kewljThe 2 elite 8 mens games tonight (monday) were barnburners if you bet the points. On both games, you either won or lost by 1.5 points. I was lucky and won both for +$400 (see above post for bets), but did give back $100 on a money line bet that lost.
Seems like you broke even on Sabres. You must have at least been a tad worried when Flyers were down 3-0 in the 3rd period. Quite a spectacular flame out for record tying 18th consecutive loss!
Quote: SOOPOOSeems like you broke even on Sabres. You must have at least been a tad worried when Flyers were down 3-0 in the 3rd period. Quite a spectacular flame out for record tying 18th consecutive loss!
Yes, very lucky to have broken even on my 2 hockey bets. I am not a real fan of the puck line in hockey. I didn't watch the game but checked the score a few times and when it was 3-0 Buffalo after 2 periods, had sort of written both bets off as losses, figuring this was the night the golden gift of betting against Sabers comes to an end.
Must of been rough for anyone still rooting for Buffalo. You Buffalo folks have probably long since given up on season, but were hoping not to set a record. lol. Same two teams tomorrow night. I think I will bet the Flyers moneyline only. It will be laying about 2-1 and the Flyers aren't playing very well either especially defensively, but it is hard not to keep riding this Sabers losing streak until it ends.
Quote: VegasriderSome idiot wanted to bet 300k on a future bet on Ohio St just before tip off. I think he got 100k down. That bet didn't last very long. Nobody going to beat the team from Spokane. But as far as the Pac 12, whatever Bill Walton is smoking, I"ll take it as well.
What seed was George Mason when they made their run? A lot of people in NY, at least, didn't think they even belonged in the dance, after they lost to Hofstra in the Conference tourney.
Quote: billryanWhat seed was George Mason when they made their run? A lot of people in NY, at least, didn't think they even belonged in the dance, after they lost to Hofstra in the Conference tourney.
I believe George Mason was a #11 seed.
1st 4 to the final 4
Wow. I was pulling for them. MI full of trash talkers. No class.
Great win over MI
All game that 7 footer MI had scared me
Surprised they did not go to him last few possessions
Quote: terapinedUCLA
1st 4 to the final 4
Wow. I was pulling for them. MI full of trash talkers. No class.
Great win over MI
All game that 7 footer MI had scared me
Surprised they did not go to him last few possessions
Even though I am a fan of the Big Ten, I like to see underdogs continue on. If UCLA could somehow win it all it would be the biggest surprise in NCAA tourney history.
Quote: DeMangoDid I hear it right, MI missed last 6 shots? Chalk should take it from here on out. Midnight is striking and Baylor vs Zags for all the marbles.
No, you did not hear it right. Michigan missed their last 8 shots. A couple were missed layups.
Quote: DeMangoSaw those missed layups. UCLA didn't win the game, Michigan lost it.
Agree with this. And the scheme of trying for the three twice at the end rather than getting the ball to Dickenson under the hoop was inexplicable.
Quote: unJonAgree with this. And the scheme of trying for the three twice at the end rather than getting the ball to Dickenson under the hoop was inexplicable.
The guy is a beast
And they have him throwing the inbounds pass
Juwan Howard out coached himself
| Teams remaining | 2021 | Average all time | Max all time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 6.56 | 5.83 | 6.72 |
| 16 | 5.88 | 4.55 | 5.88 |
| 8 | 4.63 | 3.22 | 5.00 |
| 4 | 3.75 | 2.85 | 3.38 |
| 2 | 1.00 | 2.29 | 7.50 |
| 1 | 1.00 | 1.94 | 8.00 |
So, much lower seeds (remember a low seed means a high seed number), making it to the 2nd to 5th rounds. However, the final two were both #1 seeds so no great underdog story at the end of it all.
We saw an 11 seed make it to the Final Four. That has happened four times before, but never has a 12 or lower seeded team made it that far.
Here are some prop updates based on all 36 seasons:
14 to 16 seed wins at least one game = 10.98%
Under 1.5 one seeds make it to Final Four = 47.22%
Number one seed wins = 63.89%
| Seed | Weighting |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1000 |
| 2 | 861 |
| 3 | 554 |
| 4 | 314 |
| 5 | 247 |
| 6 | 369 |
| 7 | 378 |
| 8 | 250 |
| 9 | 236 |
| 10 | 247 |
| 11 | 222 |
| 12 | 135 |
| 13 | 86 |
| 14 | 100 |
| 15 | 65 |
| 16 | 7 |
The probability a team winning will be that teams weighting divided by the sum of the weights of both teams.
For example, suppose a 1 seed is playing a 2 seed. The probability of the 1 seed winning would be 1000/(1000+861) = 53.73%.
In the 67 times this has happened, the #1 seed won 36 times, or 53.73%.
In the 2241 March Madness games played to date, not counting ones where the seeds are equal, the higher-seeded team (meaning a lower seed number) won 1604 times, or 71.58%.
If you simulated every March madness game ever played, not counting equal seeds, you would get 71.91% favorites winning.
To be honest, I can't think of a practical use for this information, but you never know when a prop bet will bubble up where this might be useful. I would not use this to handicap a single game, as the seeds are not a perfect estimator of a team's strength.
