FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
October 5th, 2020 at 1:24:56 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

. Luck plays a big part.


Yèah, and some guys dô not have any!
And then there are guysc like me who are akin to that cartoon character with no vowels and a dark rain cloud directly and solely over is head. We should ñot have gambling as a hobby.

I wôuld rathér WIN wîth style!
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 590
October 5th, 2020 at 6:18:02 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

The problem with teasers is the extra vig. When you lose it takes more to recover your money on future bets.

See you don't understand baseball and win...you understand college football and you lose. Luck plays a big part.




I have this odd kind of bias. I flip out and curse and whine when somebody's AJ cracks my KK in poker. I say it's not right and the whole tournament is decided on nonsense and blah, blah. Yet, when it comes to college football, I always say, "Games you deserve to win, you win about 70% of the time. Games you deserve to lose, you win about 30% of the time." And for some reason I'm completely good with that.

The vig with teasers is not as bad as one might think at some of the boutique offshores. The other key aspect is that if you're a shop 'til you drop guy, as I am, timing the teasers is critical is college football because of the large line moves. Now I cost myself a win Saturday because North Texas briefly (maybe 40-50 minutes) went to -3 vs. Southern Miss. A few minutes later it was -1 1/2 and then went to -1. So, being an idiot, when it went to -3 I thought there was an avalanche of money (or a covid-19 report) fueling the line move and there was no hurry. I was wrong. So I passed on the wager, and it was a winner.

The teaser game I miraculously lost, TTech +9, I was waiting for the +2 1/2 lines to go to +3. They never did. In fact, they started moving the other way. By the time I pulled the trigger, I used a seven point teaser and then lost by a point. I can state that, surveying a dozen offshores, there were no +3's at any time in my sample. So I didn't screw that up, anyway.

Quick rant on teaser vig. Teasers were a better value before the alleged "Wong teasers" became public knowledge. I say alleged because serious gamblers knew about the "Wong teaser" range advantage decades before "Wong" somehow attached his name to the concept. I have always been amused and perturbed by those who are expert in other subfields of gambling who decide they have "discovered" something as it pertains to sports betting. About 99% of the time, they are "discovering" something that is well known to experts. In that sense, it's like any other specialty subfield when outsiders come to play, I suppose.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 590
November 6th, 2020 at 6:26:50 PM permalink
I figure I'd add this -- I have San Jose State +10 tonight versus San Diego State. Well, the QB lasted four plays. Now I have a run-and-shoot offense and a backup running QB. LOL.

Like Trump winning the election, I'm going to need an act of God to win this game.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 74
  • Posts: 6996
November 8th, 2020 at 5:39:00 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

I figure I'd add this -- I have San Jose State +10 tonight versus San Diego State. Well, the QB lasted four plays. Now I have a run-and-shoot offense and a backup running QB. LOL.

Like Trump winning the election, I'm going to need an act of God to win this game.



Easy win for the Spartans. Good bet
Living longer does not always infer +EV
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2573
November 8th, 2020 at 8:26:38 PM permalink
Quote: Dave2121

Robert E Dietz is a long term scammer from the 80s Follow him at your own risk.

He is always hustling for a buck.


Whoa really!!!!!!!!??!?!?
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 590
November 9th, 2020 at 7:51:19 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Whoa really!!!!!!!!??!?!?



I think Boz meant "Scanner from the 80's," as in the movies of the same name. I'm so expert, I blow people's minds. If you haven't seen the original sci-fi film (1981), I think it's Canadian, check it out.

I'm gonna assume Dave2121 is The (anonymous) Boz. I could be wrong, of course. it might be one of The Boz's friends. So Boz has been making these comments since he and I diverged opinions, shall we say, on the pandemic and the Prez. Boz and I were respectful friends, or at least online acquaintances, before that. Boz actually knows quite a lot about the history of sports handicapping and the biggest scam artists in the business from way back, like Mike Warren (aka Laskey) and Dan Sheridan and so on.

So he also knows my reputation is absolutely pristine, which is why he never actually provides a single fact. I have run an outfit with the sappy but lovely moniker "Integrity Sports" since 1979 precisely because I operated in such an aboveboard, anti-scamdicapper fashion. About 12 years ago, I shifted into being completely private, but I'm still "Integrity Sports."

I have a bunch of stuff I could post here -- op eds, a piece in The Humanist, blurbs and summaries from Mike McCusker's annual report from the 80's and 90's called "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and my bio from "Who's Who in Sports Gambling" and so on. If I get some time and figure out how to do it, I will ask Shackleford for permission. It has some historical value, and nobody can buy anything from me (I ain't selling anything), so it's not like anything bad can happen from my posting it.

Anyway, thanks, Boz. I had Biden at -130, and The Wiz's analysis motivated me to bet some more at -193. Good luck with all that "pandemic is a scam" stuff. Boz seems to have a problem figuring out what is a scam and what is not.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."

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