Thread Rating:

jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 1077
November 4th, 2020 at 11:55:30 PM permalink
Biden looks happy in that pic.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3136
November 5th, 2020 at 3:55:18 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

So I just saw that one betting house is paying out on this early: https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1324140973148942337

Not being a sportsbettor... how often does this kind of a thing happen?



Looks like this company has done it before and been wrong. Ouch.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/epic-election-fail-bookies-paid-out-early-on-labor-win-20190518-p51oun.html
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 767
November 5th, 2020 at 6:59:22 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I got +225 on PA. I can’t see what the odds were on the ones I didn’t choose. Did any larger underdog come in that you can remember?



Not that I remember.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3136
November 5th, 2020 at 7:01:47 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

Not that I remember.



Looks like the big upset could be Biden to win GA. Anyone know the odds of that one pre-election?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 849
November 5th, 2020 at 7:15:47 AM permalink
I'm loving the "Hurry up, Nevada" memes!

The Odd1sOut made me lol: "Everyone waiting for Nevada numbers:
Nevada:
https://mobile.twitter.com/theodd1sout/status/1324121005971812356/photo/1

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/nevada-ballots-time-memes-president
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 3782
November 5th, 2020 at 9:23:23 AM permalink
If you want the easiest $100 ever, just bet Trump $625 in North Carolina.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 767
Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrhFinsRuleMinty
November 5th, 2020 at 11:32:29 AM permalink
This has been a good thread. How about a shout out to the originator (LOL -- it's me)?

I made a huge error betting this thing. For a smart guy, sometimes I'm a dummy. I missed a huge opportunity here. It did not occur to me, and it should have, that because of the history of Florida with Gore/Bush, people -- especially international bettors -- would overestimate the significance of Florida to the overall picture. Florida has become a focal point for American politics, and any outcome has overreactions. I should have realized that; it's pretty obvious, really.

So the thing to have done was whack Biden as a dog after Trump was going to win Florida. It really bothers me that I did not do this, since Florida at +110 for Trump was the primary wager I used in my props contest. I should have taken the thinking one step further. People would overreact to any early Florida outcome, and the odds value was going to be the other way.

Something for all you youngsters with many elections ahead of you to keep in mind down the road.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3015
November 5th, 2020 at 12:09:10 PM permalink
The market moved based on Trump doing better than he did in ‘16 in Florida and then that was extrapolated with so little other information yet available, not simply the fact that he won the state in and of itself. Ed Miller tweeted something along the lines about the good thing about presidential elections being only every four years is it gives plenty of time for sports and stock bettors to forgot about the last one and convince themselves that they understand political betting.

Interesting sidenote, there’s an app that was tracking ROI using kelly criterion and dollar cost averaging if you bet probabilities based on 538’s forecast vs predictit. The results as of yesterday, with some races still undecided (currently offline)

538 vs predictit:
President: -25%
House: -7.3%
Senate: -21.5%
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 113
  • Posts: 8453
November 5th, 2020 at 2:08:41 PM permalink
You can get 11-1 if you want Trump to win now. So if you were asked.... which is more likely... you roll a ‘yo’ on your next roll at the craps table, or Trump gets a second term, Trump retaining the Presidency is much more likely. As of 5pm EST on Thursday......
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3136
November 5th, 2020 at 4:35:13 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You can get 11-1 if you want Trump to win now. So if you were asked.... which is more likely... you roll a ‘yo’ on your next roll at the craps table, or Trump gets a second term, Trump retaining the Presidency is much more likely. As of 5pm EST on Thursday......



Though rolling at least one yo in your next two rolls is the more likely occurrence. :-)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

  • Jump to: