I came across surprise info from simple shop and football talk that Justin King & Darian Stewart were both under the weather but were going to play regardless. They're important in the defensive backfield for the Rams, and against a power offense like Atlanta they'd need to be in A-1 shape, which they were not.
Thanks for letting us know. I'm not passing judgment on the quality of this information. In fact, I'm reminded of an episode of the Sopranos where Tony had such inside information via a friendly doctor and wanted to make a huge bet on the opposite team. However, he was running low on cash and Carmela refused to make him a short-term loan. Obviously, they had quite a fight when Tony's information proved correct.
As I mentioned several pages back, assuming you did have inside information that key defensive players on one team were injured or sick, wouldn't it be better to bet on the opposite team? In this game the Rams (with the sick players) were 3-point underdogs, but lost by 17 (final score 17-34).
Maybe this is a bad comparison, but based on the spread (Falcons by 3) and total (43), we would expect the Rams to score 20 points, and the Falcons 23. If it were not for the injuries, let's very loosely model the Rams score by rolls 6 dice and subtracting 1. That would have an expected total of 6*3.5-1=20. For the Falcons, roll 6 dice but add 2: 6*3.5+2=23. However, due to the injuries, instead of giving the Falcons 2 points, we give them 9 (6*3.5+9=30). That would give us an expected total of 50, which is what you predicted early in the thread, as I recall. Here are the results of a 10,000 game simulation:
I know this way overstates the ties on the over/under in a real game, but if we ignore them, the ratio of winning bets to resolved bets is a lot higher for the Falcons compared to the over. The reason is there is less variance in the margin of victory than the total points. Both bets are expected to win, but var (x-y) > var(x+y). I hope this makes sense. So Tony would have bet on Falcons -3 in your situation, as would I.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.