Thread Rating:

Poll

1 vote (4.16%)
18 votes (75%)
1 vote (4.16%)
3 votes (12.5%)
3 votes (12.5%)
2 votes (8.33%)
5 votes (20.83%)
4 votes (16.66%)
3 votes (12.5%)
3 votes (12.5%)

24 members have voted

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 120
  • Posts: 12100
August 31st, 2019 at 9:59:45 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

1,180 entries so far.

To be honest, I'm leaning against it at this point.



As of last night, leading into a holiday weekend. I do think it merits consideration that some will drop out or miss picks and eat an 0-5 week, thereby reducing the number. On the other hand, there are almost also going to certainly be smart pickers playing, as well.

Hard to say what the final EV will be. Probably a bunch of other people kind of doing wait and see, too.
Vultures can't be choosers.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1559
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 31st, 2019 at 10:03:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

As of last night, leading into a holiday weekend. I do think it merits consideration that some will drop out or miss picks and eat an 0-5 week, thereby reducing the number. On the other hand, there are almost also going to certainly be smart pickers playing, as well.

Hard to say what the final EV will be. Probably a bunch of other people kind of doing wait and see, too.




One reason why they added the monthly prizes is to keep everyone involved and interested throughout.

Thereís a $10,000 prize for each four week period. So no matter how badly youíve done over letís say the first 12 weeks , you can win 10k by having the best record in weeks 12-16
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 120
  • Posts: 12100
August 31st, 2019 at 10:16:07 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

One reason why they added the monthly prizes is to keep everyone involved and interested throughout.

Thereís a $10,000 prize for each four week period. So no matter how badly youíve done over letís say the first 12 weeks , you can win 10k by having the best record in weeks 12-16



Thanks for the clarification!

In any event, an 0-5 week would still be an unmitigated disaster when it comes to having any hope of winning the main prize. Shooting from the hip, Iíd say the winner is probably going to pick something like 70-75% winners. The more entrants there are, the higher the expected percentage goes.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 5790
September 2nd, 2019 at 8:32:16 AM permalink
Bumping this thread. Mike, I hope you do this. Counting taxes, it will probably be a small negative EV play. But less so than other things you have done for forum community involvement like the cooperation game.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 154
  • Posts: 7740
Thanks for this post from:
MaxPen
September 2nd, 2019 at 8:44:08 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well, if you consider the intangibles, imo it's still a winning play. If you lead a group of the forum with a very high-interest weekly contest entry, you get a dedicated 4 month period of activity here for a fun game. Since Derek has said any overage will go 100% to the prize pool, it doesn't seem like a bad bet even if it's not +ev. JMHO.



You could reinstate Nathan and get the same activity with no risk.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 9319
September 2nd, 2019 at 9:49:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Bumping this thread. Mike, I hope you do this. Counting taxes, it will probably be a small negative EV play. But less so than other things you have done for forum community involvement like the cooperation game.



I agree. I think the comroderary and discussion on the site would far outweigh and slight -ev play.

I would assume if we would win the mil Mike would have the taxes withheld and we would split 700k or does he collect the mil and distribute it with that form to split jackpots. Can you imagine the party we would throw as 10 or 30 of us gathered to split up 1 mil.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 3451
Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOOBozbeachbumbabs
September 2nd, 2019 at 11:18:11 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

You could reinstate Nathan and get the same activity with no risk.


Most cancer patients request the cancer back after the doctor has told them they are completely cancer free...
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. ó Amarillo Slim Preston
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1223
  • Posts: 20327
September 2nd, 2019 at 5:07:08 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Bumping this thread. Mike, I hope you do this. Counting taxes, it will probably be a small negative EV play. But less so than other things you have done for forum community involvement like the cooperation game.



Thanks Scott!

As an update, there are 1,369 entries so far. I have a high degree of confidence it will fill up by the deadline on Thursday.

I am already looking at two weekends out of town during football season and nobody has agreed to be a proxy who has a D/Golden Gate player card. Even if I did find one, I'd have to shell out money for their trouble putting in my picks. Granted, there is some app they have, but I may be out of state at least one weekend and it verifies any activity is coming from Nevada.

Let me reach out to another local who may be interested in being being a proxy for each other.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 1233
September 3rd, 2019 at 7:38:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Scott!

As an update, there are 1,369 entries so far. I have a high degree of confidence it will fill up by the deadline on Thursday.

I am already looking at two weekends out of town during football season and nobody has agreed to be a proxy who has a D/Golden Gate player card. Even if I did find one, I'd have to shell out money for their trouble putting in my picks. Granted, there is some app they have, but I may be out of state at least one weekend and it verifies any activity is coming from Nevada.

Let me reach out to another local who may be interested in being being a proxy for each other.



Yes, picks can be submitted on their Circa sports app, but as you noted, you have to be in the state. I'd invest and be happy to proxy, but don't live in Nevada, so that won't work.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1223
  • Posts: 20327
September 3rd, 2019 at 11:22:21 AM permalink
1,374 entries as of this morning.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

  • Jump to: