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Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 8th, 2019 at 8:15:31 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

whelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.



Same thing, in terms of combinations, except there are theoretically many more (but the probabilities don't change much) due to ties.

Most casino run contests like this are just straight up Pick Ems.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 8th, 2019 at 8:23:09 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

whelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.



If picking without the spread there is a LOT of strategy involved, and knowing the exact rules is quite important.
Do you have to pick every game, or just a predetermined number of games?
Is the big winner the highest percentage winner at the end of the season? What other prizes are available?
Is it you perception that any win would be taxable but any loss not deductible?
Will you know exact standings after each week?

Depending on how many people are paid, picking just the biggest favorites might make sense.
If there are 50 others doing the same thing it wouldn't......
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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September 8th, 2019 at 9:11:51 AM permalink
Mathematically and practically, I think there is a difference between 25 entries by a a single contestant and one entry by 25 contestants.

So let's construct a simplified conceptual model. My model is intended for a contest that is ATS, against the spread.

On each round the contestant is selecting 5 of 16 games from which to pick.

Both the contestant and that line-makers are skilled at analysis, but the contestant sometimes has insights about a game that give him a slight advantage -or uses line movements on stale lines to gain an advantage.
- On each round the contestant sees 5 games that he expects to be able to pick with an average success rate of 57%, 3 games that he can pick with an average success rate of 52% and 8 games on which he perfectly agrees with the line and can pick at a rate of 50%.

On round 1 the contestant picks some variation of this strategy:
- two or more entries with all five games that he feels strongly about (57%)
- many combinations in which he includes one, two or three of the games that he feels less certain about (52%)
- several combinations that include one or more games that he feels are a toss-up, because sh#t happens in the NFL.

The results of Round one may include one or more entries that are 5-0, or at least 4-1, or maybe only 3-2.

ON round 2, the contestant continues to mix up his 25 entries however, however, he uses the combination of picks that he feels most confident in on those entries that had the best outcome in round 1, whatever they happened to be

Each round, the contestant continues to correlate his hishest-confidence picks with whatever entries have had the best outcomes to date.

At the end of the contest, I maintain that a contestant with 25 entries using such a strategy will usuually have a "best entry" with a better outcome than the best entry from 25 different contestants with similar skill levels, because:
- there really are games that a skilled contestant can pick with a greater than 50% success rate, and
- in general, the picks of 25 different skilled contestants will be somewhat correlated each round picking the same games in which the line is inefficient because it is stale, or because of some factor (weather, injuries, matchups, team motivation) that the linemakers have not weighed correctly.) We see these kind of correlations in the WOV NFL Picks Contest.
- and because, no matter how sharp the insights of the skilled contestants, on most rounds the picks that go 5-0 will not be the 5 that have a 57% chance of being correct, i.e., on some rounds "Nathan Wins."

Comments? Agree? Disagree?
Sometimes, people are just a bottomless mystery. And, after all, this is just a sh*tty little forum in the sun-less backwaters of the online world.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 8th, 2019 at 9:19:28 AM permalink
I agree, my post to GWAE assumed all players equally skilled.
Vultures can't be choosers.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
September 12th, 2019 at 12:05:22 AM permalink
23 people did not submit picks.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 12th, 2019 at 3:45:25 AM permalink
I feel like I spend too much time at this website, if you want the truth

nevertheless I am seeing this thread for the first time, amazing
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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