Thread Rating:

JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
August 18th, 2019 at 6:55:53 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

JoelDeze, I will be looking forward to see what you can do.

Being upfront honest and out in the open about this sort of thing is always the best policy.

I vaguely remember you saying something in the past about putting down upwards of $50,000 per game? Why be messing around with a measly $1,000 starting bankroll?



That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston . We terminated that agreement after our first year in Vegas. There were a lot of difficulties. Too many expenses, too much foot traffic between books, each person that went had to be a percentage owner of the business we created for the venture due to messenger betting being illegal. Communication across state lines is also illegal so I couldnít give them any advice once they went. At the end of that first year, we mutually terminated our contract. We only did ML wagers back then. No ATS or Totals.

1k is fine. Itís a reasonable starting amount if the risk percentage is honored. This first week is 20% CAR so $200 is the max I can wager. I canít go over that. I could be $800 after this week or over $1,150. Thereís a challenge in managing any amount of money. I like the challenge.
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 69
  • Posts: 5254
August 18th, 2019 at 7:37:42 AM permalink
Joel, will you be using U.S. regulated casinos for your wagers or offshore sites? If using offshore sites, how will you distribute your $1,000 bankroll between the sites to make sure you have enough to wager at the site with the best line?
Living longer does not always infer +EV
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
August 18th, 2019 at 9:24:14 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Joel, will you be using U.S. regulated casinos for your wagers or offshore sites? If using offshore sites, how will you distribute your $1,000 bankroll between the sites to make sure you have enough to wager at the site with the best line?



U.S regulated. Iíll be using Twin River in Lincoln, Ri.
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 17277
August 18th, 2019 at 11:55:29 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston . We terminated that agreement after our first year in Vegas. There were a lot of difficulties. Too many expenses, too much foot traffic between books, each person that went had to be a percentage owner of the business we created for the venture due to messenger betting being illegal. Communication across state lines is also illegal so I couldnít give them any advice once they went. At the end of that first year, we mutually terminated our contract. We only did ML wagers back then. No ATS or Totals.

Now this sounds like an interesting story!!!! Please feel free to share more details of this if you can.

"That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston" As in, he/they put up the money and you added your expertise and what not?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As far as all the legal issues and expenses, it seems to me if one had a significant advantage and there was money to be made all those problems could be solved. So call me skeptical that's what made this partnership dissolve. If and when there's significant amounts of money to be made(especially regarding gambling)people will go to Extreme Measures in order to find a way to make it work. It's almost as if someone went out of their way to find reasons why you should not do it any longer.

And now with New Jersey open to mobile sports betting and lots of different option including Pennsylvania(add in all the bonuses and deals they offer and mobile betting in Nevada it seems like those problems can be solved. And can somebody tell me the last time they actually went after Sports runners?
And can somebody tell me that it's illegal to give information can someone in another state about what bets they should or shouldn't make? It seems to me that you're just not allowed to make Sports bets across state lines.

p.s. gambling podcast shows such as GWAE always seem to be looking for people who have a legit method of beating sports and other things. Perhaps you should reach out to some of those shows concerning your website.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Aug 18, 2019
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
August 18th, 2019 at 5:20:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Now this sounds like an interesting story!!!! Please feel free to share more details of this if you can.

"That type of capital was funded by a 50/50 partner in Boston" As in, he/they put up the money and you added your expertise and what not?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As far as all the legal issues and expenses, it seems to me if one had a significant advantage and there was money to be made all those problems could be solved. So call me skeptical that's what made this partnership dissolve. If and when there's significant amounts of money to be made(especially regarding gambling)people will go to Extreme Measures in order to find a way to make it work. It's almost as if someone went out of their way to find reasons why you should not do it any longer.

And now with New Jersey open to mobile sports betting and lots of different option including Pennsylvania(add in all the bonuses and deals they offer and mobile betting in Nevada it seems like those problems can be solved. And can somebody tell me the last time they actually went after Sports runners?
And can somebody tell me that it's illegal to give information can someone in another state about what bets they should or shouldn't make? It seems to me that you're just not allowed to make Sports bets across state lines.

p.s. gambling podcast shows such as GWAE always seem to be looking for people who have a legit method of beating sports and other things. Perhaps you should reach out to some of those shows concerning your website.



I'd rather not go into all of the details but the main issue was namely that they were incurring up to 8k a week in expenses so we were essentially operating out of a hole each week. I'm solo now and will stay that way. Keep in mind we didn't have sports betting available back then locally.

What you are talking about regarding communication is called the Federal Wire Act. It states:

Quote:


Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.



And, if you want to know what wire communication facility refers to, it means:

Quote:


Pursuant to 18 USCS § 1081, [Title 18. Crimes and Criminal Procedure; Part I. Crimes; Chapter 50. Gambling] the term wire communication facility means ďany and all instrumentalities, personnel, and services (among other things, the receipt, forwarding, or delivery of communications) used or useful in the transmission of writings, signs, pictures, and sounds of all kinds by aid of wire, cable, or other like connection between the points of origin and reception of such transmission.Ē

ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 88
Thanks for this post from:
JoelDeze
August 18th, 2019 at 5:28:03 PM permalink
Good Luck and Happy Hunting Joel
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1314
August 20th, 2019 at 4:30:11 PM permalink
Meanwhile...Florida is back up to - 7 1/2 vs. Miami Saturday night.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 69
  • Posts: 5254
August 21st, 2019 at 8:12:57 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Meanwhile...Florida is back up to - 7 1/2 vs. Miami Saturday night.



I can't wait. There are very few things in life that I really enjoy, but college football is one of them. I will be loading up my William Hill mobile account on Friday. Yes, I still use WH. Apparently I am one of the few people not good enough at picking games so WH hasn't banned me yet.

It is weird because I am going to be in Austin for Week 1 of the season so I won't be able to bet. I am worried that I might actually have physical withdrawal symptoms.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Geppi
Geppi
Joined: Aug 21, 2019
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 3
August 21st, 2019 at 2:33:32 PM permalink
G/L this year
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 467
August 22nd, 2019 at 3:01:00 PM permalink
There's only two games on zero week, and only one that I'm interested in. Florida vs Miami on Saturday night.

Game of the Week

The Gators bring back 5 starters and a lot of depth from last year's team on offense. Feleipe Franks got into a groove to end the season last year, becoming a willing runner in Dan Mullen's offense. The 6'6" 240 lb. Junior QB is ready to build on this success. The Gators return big playmakers on offense in Tyrie Cleveland who will suit up against Miami. Alongside him is 6'5" Trevon Grimes, 6'2" Van Jefferson, 6'1" Freddie Swain and 6'1" Josh Hammond. All have solid experience playing last season and the receiving corps is only 2nd to Alabama in the SEC. The RB stable is solid again with Perine taking the lead, followed by Davis and Pierce who have good speed, agility and breakaway speed. The offensive line played well last season but they will still need to fill a few holes. If the Gators have two disadvantages it would be the O-line and depth in the defensive secondary. They lost another reserve DB in C.J. McWilliams for the season.

Miami did not have the type of season it wanted last year going 7-6 and forcing Mark Richt to retire. Diaz takes over the helm at HC and the Hurricanes have a Top 15 defensive unit to start the season. Miami has announced that Jarren Williams (3rd on the depth chart) and a freshman out of GA will take the helm. He's a 6'2" 210 QB that only played in very limited action against Savannah State last year going 1 for 3 for 17 yards. He will face a Grantham run Florida defense that will blitz a lot. DeeJay Dallas, Cam'Ron Harris and Robert Burns will fill the backfield. Burns just had offseason surgery so is questionable for the opener. Miami has two standout receivers in Mike Harley and Brian Hightower. Keep in mind that Miami had to fill a lot of holes so they went deep into the transfer portal to gather many new players to shore up the team in certain spots. None of these players have played together.

Grantham will have Florida blitzing the freshman a lot throughout the game. Williams' head will be on a swivel and he should see heavy pressure. In strength metrics (TSRS), Miami is ranked 41st in the nation. Florida is ranked 18th to start the season.

Florida went 7-4 overall against the spread, placing it 24th in the Country. They also covered the spread by more than 4.82 points above the spread margin. Miami was 119th in the nation at 4-8 ATS with a disappointing -4.88 cover diff failure below the margin.

Another least known stat fact: An unranked Miami team has not beaten a top 10 ranked team this Century. Florida starts the season #8 in the polls.

Wagers for the week

Per the original post, I'm starting with a 1k bankroll and will be wagering using a CAR model posted below. This means for week 0 I can only wager 20% CAR, which means no more than $200.

WEEK CAR %
0 , 1, 4 20%
5 25%
6 30%
7, 8 40%
9, 10 50%
11, 12, 13, 14, 15 60%
Bowlseason 70%


Wager Info: Placed $200 to win $148.15 on Florida laying the points (bought 0.5 pts to 7) at -135.
Original line opened at: +7.5, moved to +7.0 for more than a month then moved back to +7.5 this week.
Prediction Info: I see Florida winning by 11+, however both Miami and Florida still have question marks on the O-line, but both defenses are very solid. This should be a low scoring game, but I see Florida winning 31-17.



EDIT image to remove barcode.

Regardless of win/loss, I will post final totals after the game has been played.
Last edited by: JoelDeze on Aug 22, 2019
ďItís a dog eat dog world out there and Iím wearing milkbone underwear .Ē Ė Norm Peterson

  • Jump to: