AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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ksdjdj
May 12th, 2019 at 10:55:43 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks AxelWolf,

Too bad i am not winning with the lotto bets yet, even though they are still good bets from an EV point of view.

I talked to you a few years back when I noticed some of your stuff. IIRC you were not banked very well at the time. If I may ask(feel free to say NOYB). How have you been doing over all since then?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 12th, 2019 at 11:08:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Refer the The Wizards tag line. Just not on Superbowl safety bets (-;
------------------------------------------
Time for you to Marty those bets, you are due (-;


Thanks lol, it does make me feel a little better, when i have been losing but still know they were "good bets".

Also, the Mega Millions has become slightly EV, if you bet on the "no prop" @ -1200.

I am not going to do a full post because the estimated edge is about 1.07% to 2.08% player edge, using $36,000,000 to $42,000,000, as a rough estimate for tickets sales in $ (the tickets now cost $2 per ticket, so the estimate is between 18,000,000 to 21,000,000 tickets sold)

Note: my estimates for Mega Millions are not as good as Powerball, because i have only two ways of estimating for Mega Millions, and three ways for Powerball.

-------
Update:

The estimated EV for the Powerball prop is nearly 0%, so it won't be long now til it becomes +EV (if the jackpot isn't hit in the next few rolls)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 13, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 12th, 2019 at 11:38:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I talked to you a few years back when I noticed some of your stuff. IIRC you were not banked very well at the time. If I may ask(feel free to say NOYB). How have you been doing over all since then?


My best plays were

Best "long-term grinding" play: Earning about 140+ EV an hour on my standard game that I play (from 2015 to 2017 and 2019 to ?).

***: it is a lot harder for Aussie players to bet online now, so i am using team viewer and a friend in another country to play this game again.


Best Blackjack result: Over one to two days in 2017 I turned $50,000 capital into about $150,000 betting at pinnacle (posted about this game on WoV)

They had a slightly +EV bj game that i posted about (it had early surrender at the time), and they also gave me 0.3% back on total turnover, so the EV for that game was about 0.36% (bet size $1000 per game, i think)


Best sports betting sessions: Early in 2015, i made about 100,000 USD on the live betting tennis, (posted about this on WoV too, at the time I was surprised that they let me withdraw the money, even though i read the terms and conditions and thought i didn't "break any of their rules")


Best single bet (in terms of EV): probably the lotto bets that i post about, i think the highest has been +82%, when i posted about them.

-----------------
Update (about 1205 am)
Best "Teaser" bet (see links below):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/22280-teaser-discrepancy/

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/22314-teaser-discrepancy-2/

Note: i am not trying to re-open those threads, as the play hasn't repeated since then.

------------------
Worst plays:

I have bad sessions too, when i am feeling sick, i tend to play "on-tilt" and chase losses.
I am in control all other times, but when I have a fever, my play style can be worse than all the "square punters" combined.

Note: I should get my ISP to turn off my internet when i am sick, lol.

--------------
BTW, a lot of my threads that i have started have turned out to have been "garbage" (especially the earlier ones), but at the time I thought they were good (or at least worth further discussion), i remember you and others helped me out with them.

--------------
Update:

My other major weakness at the time was bank-roll management.
One time i lost $80,000 flat betting $250 a game on BJ with 0.25% EV, because:

1. My interpretation of "flat betting" at the time was compared to the "initial bank-roll" instead of the "current bank-roll"
2. My stake compared to the initial bank roll was probably "too big" (I was using kelly instead of half or quarter kelly)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 13, 2019
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 12:54:18 AM permalink
NBA totals have increased tremendously since the Wiz posted that info because of increased reliance on 3s

it's not at all unusual to see a total of about 212 and then they actually score close to 250

because of this your edge is not nearly as great as the Wiz's data suggests

the books know this and that is undoubtedly why they allow you to cash out - increased unpredictability

on 3/30 orlando/indiana was set at 205.5 and they actually scored 237 - on 3/29 the Warriors/timberwolves total was set at 228.5 and they actually scored 261

still, you may have an edge -

probably a better speculation on games with low totals involving low scoring teams

Good Luck


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/24/heres-whats-behind-nbas-scoring-explosion/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.be3a1dd6152a
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 13, 2019
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
kgb92
kgb92
Joined: Oct 10, 2017
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ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 1:33:24 AM permalink
My suggestion is to open as many accounts as you can. If you can open many accounts, then you probably can't screw it up no matter what.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 8:14:08 AM permalink
I believe that the O/U laying 11 to 10 does not give you an AP opportunity. First of all, buying 1 point on an over under is not like buying one point on a spread. And when lines move there usually is a reason (3 point shooter found out out be injured, shot blocker not playing, etc...).
If you are going to make a bet on an under as an example, locking in your bet at 200, but having the ability to cancel and re bet at 201 is certainly good for the player.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 12:37:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj





Strategy that I am using


3: With about 5 minutes to game time, I will have another look to see what the likely "average closing total" will be using the Sports Insights and Vegas Insider websites.
4(a): If my bet is 1.5 points better than the average closing line (or more), then I will keep that bet.

Thanks in advance for any help or opinions provided.




also, your idea is based on the assumption that the final closing line is accurate in how it reflects the probable total

many people think this but is it really true?..................................... who knows?

if it's not true then all you did was get a better deal on your bet than those who bet very late - it doesn't mean you have an edge

not trying to be overly critical - just suggesting caution.......................... yellow light
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 13th, 2019 at 3:05:45 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I believe that the O/U laying 11 to 10 does not give you an AP opportunity. First of all, buying 1 point on an over under is not like buying one point on a spread. And when lines move there usually is a reason (3 point shooter found out out be injured, shot blocker not playing, etc...).
If you are going to make a bet on an under as an example, locking in your bet at 200, but having the ability to cancel and re bet at 201 is certainly good for the player.


Thanks for the post.
I agree that the spread is more value than the total like you say, but when i wrote the OP i didn't know that I could do it with the spread.
I did some tests last night (Australia time) and it worked for a small test bet on the warriors and trail blazers, i got +8.0 and cancelled the -8 for "free" (i think the new spread is now 7.5?)
I think you need at least 1.5 points on the total and 1 point on the spread, going by the Wiz' table, to be +EV, if it is still accurate to this date?
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 13, 2019
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 3:16:39 PM permalink
No AP opportunity here. Carry on.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 13th, 2019 at 3:48:43 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

also, your idea is based on the assumption that the final closing line is accurate in how it reflects the probable total

many people think this but is it really true?..................................... who knows?

if it's not true then all you did was get a better deal on your bet than those who bet very late - it doesn't mean you have an edge

not trying to be overly critical - just suggesting caution.......................... yellow light


Thanks for the post.
I still think it is worth trying, but maybe with a different strategy.
I have just been looking at "sports insights think-tank" page (it is a paid service) and it has a few systems that have been profitable.
One system is called "betting against the public on reverse line movements (on the under)", that means if most of the public is on the over, but the total trends down for that game, then you should bet on the under.
Note: even before i got a paid account with sports insights, i knew about the "against the public" strategies from previous research (but i did not know how much it was worth).

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