DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 17th, 2019 at 8:21:22 AM permalink
The Southwest Stakes goes as Race #9 at Oaklawn tomorrow, on the Monday holiday.

But Geejus Heist. I don't think I've ever seen this done before to such an extreme extent. Steve Asmussen has entered five 3y/o colts from his stable out of the total of eleven running. Uno Steve, dos Steve, tres Steve, quatro Steve, cinco Steve, for a total of twenty hooves of Asmussen to be loaded in the gate. The thundering herd formerly known as the contents of the SM Asmussen barn will be uncoupled in the wagering. I can't quite get a grip on what's up with that, but whatever else it is, it is uniquely redonkulous, and none of my money will be burned in this mess.

Further and probably more importantly, in a Grade 3 that serves as a Derby prep & qualifying race, not a single one of the eleven pedigrees has produced progeny with an average winning distance greater than 7.1 furlongs, and most are 6.x. I have no interest in this event as a potential step towards the Derby, unless it is some "Derby" in Puerto Rico or Iowa at not much more than half the distance of the other one in Kentucky. The Southwest has been productive for the three year old classics in the past, along with the rest of the Oaklawn series of 3y/o route stakes, but it ain't happenin' this time. This year it is more likely to serve as a step towards an obscure allowance race on a Tuesday at Delta Downs.

The next serious event on the schedule for Derby contenders will be the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 2nd.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 17th, 2019 at 8:32:26 AM permalink
Finally I'm able to add a video to the earlier post about the result of the Risen Star yesterday:



Quote: DrawingDead

The winner of the feature at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May will be... El Camino Real result chart ...not found here. Very not here. Enough of the limp cheese sticks.


On to the main course. Fractional times of the Fairgrounds events at 1-1/16 mile (8.5f):

2 Frlg-4 Frlg-6 Frlgs--1 Mile---Finish---Late stretch splits
23.80 47.89 1:13.11 1:38.39 1:45.04 . (25.28) (6.65) Maiden Special Weight, 3y/o
25.93 50.74 1:14.82 1:39.08 1:45.46 . (24.26) (6.38) Mineshaft Hdcp, Grade 3, 4y/o+ Beyer: 97
24.02 47.81 1:12.45 1:37.89 1:44.74 . (25.44) (6.85) Rachel Alexandra Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o fillies, Beyer: 91
23.71 47.36 1:12.20 1:37.87 1:44.59 . (25.67) (6.72) Risen Star Stks, Grade 2, 3y/o Beyer: 92

Red highlight = the race producing the quickest clocking for the distance at that pole or split. But I note the interesting adjustments by the Beyer crew resulting in a significantly higher figure for the slower final time in the Gr. 3 Handicap for fully mature males.

Hmmm. War of Will @ Risen Star result chart

DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 18th, 2019 at 1:50:44 PM permalink
Daily Racing Form has made the Southwest Stakes their "race of the day" so anyone can read or download their "classic" style past performances for it for free without logging in with a DRF account:

https://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=OP&country=USA&raceDate=20190218&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9

You will need "Flash Player" to open it. It can be saved by "printing" it in a PDF file.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 18th, 2019 at 3:58:28 PM permalink
Super Steed won the Southwest Stakes @ Oaklawn (62-1). I actually mentioned him earlier on in this thread, but I had given up on him after his 1st 2 turn experiment (Smarty Jones). Big early move found him in front turning for home and he won at a big price (I had nothing on the race). As DD mentioned generally about the Southwest runners, the Derby distance is the question with the field and specifically Super Steed. The final time of the Southwest (1:44+) seemed a bit slow for top flight 3yo males.

Very nice win by WoW in the Risen Star. Improbable and WoW would be my top 2 right now.
Last edited by: Keeneone on Feb 18, 2019
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 18th, 2019 at 4:16:43 PM permalink
Everyone gives up on him, then he wins.

I think heís a horse to look at. We will see what Larry Jones says.

Motion Emotion ran an identical time yesterday. I think she is a serious Oaks horse.

I havenít watched War of Willís race yet, but I was impressed with him going in, so Iím sure Iíll be impressed again.

I have a futures Exacta with him and Improbable that pays a boatload.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 18th, 2019 at 5:27:52 PM permalink
The Southwest Stakes just got a Beyer fig of 87. And the one guy who actually had a bet on the winner on the nose just got a lifetime supply of Ripple wine. He was not named Steve Asmussen. And from the interview at the end end of the clip, also not Larry Jones.

Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 20th, 2019 at 1:06:52 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

-snip-
I have a futures Exacta with him and Improbable that pays a boatload.


That is solid. It would also be nice if you have those 2 boxed with "Mutuel Field (All Others)" from KD Pool 2.
----------


Past performances for Derby hopefuls listed by current KD qualifying points:
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Derby19Points.pdf
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 20th, 2019 at 3:54:35 PM permalink
I made a $50 All Others bet in Pool 2 and a $10 Game Winner / All Others Exacta.

I should have plenty of decent pay possibilities on derby day.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 28th, 2019 at 1:59:28 PM permalink
The Fountain of Youth at has been designated Daily Racing Form's "Race of the Day" for Saturday (GP - Race #13 - 5:32pm ET & 2:32pm PT) so their past performances in "classic" format are a free .PDF download at: DRF's LINK

Not surprisingly, things are getting a little more salty looking. There are three in here I could take seriously, at least for preps on this surface up to 9f. Two of them booked in my future wagers for going 10f on the first Saturday in May, and one not.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 28th, 2019 at 2:07:43 PM permalink
Maybe this is crazy, but I like Bourbon War at 10-1.

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