Wizard
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Wizard
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October 21st, 2010 at 2:11:09 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

'So don't throw away a teaser bet if the first game loses, because it will still push if every other pick results in a push. "

I dont think this is stated correctly in the rough draft Wizard. You meant to say if the first game pushes. If the first game loses
the teaser is a loser because u have to win or push on every game.



I think it is stated correctly. If you do a 2-team teaser, and get 1 loss and 1 push, then the bet will push. That is because the one push reduces it to a one-team teaser, and there is no such thing, so the bet is refunded.


Quote: michael99000

Id be curious to know how many winning two team 6 point teasers wouldve also been a winner had they been submitted instead as a
two team Parlay at the true point spreads for both teams. I find that almost every time i win a 2 team teaser, i wouldve won it as a parlay also because
the teaser points were not needed to win either game. and of course the parlay wouldve paid much higher odds.



That has happened to me lots of times. To answer your question, let's use the probability of a random side winning on a 6-point teaser, which my table says is 68.11%. So the probability of a 2-team teaser winning is 0.6811^2=0.463897. The probability of winning a 2-team parlay is 0.5^2=0.25. So, given that you did win the teaser, the probability you would have won it as a parlay is 0.25/0.463897 = 0.5389124.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
dogman
dogman
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October 21st, 2010 at 11:04:16 AM permalink
Wizard,on the 3 team teasers your missing the expected return for a 9-5 payoff. What would the return be, by the way.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 22nd, 2010 at 5:00:37 AM permalink
Quote: dogman

Wizard,on the 3 team teasers your missing the expected return for a 9-5 payoff. What would the return be, by the way.



I'm not aware of anybody that pays 9-5 any longer, are you? The odds would depend on whether the teaser was on a side, total, or a Wong teaser.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
dogman
dogman
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October 22nd, 2010 at 8:33:53 AM permalink
Mike, if you play 3 teams in a 6 point teaser at THE GREEK sportsbook their payoff is 9-5(+180).

I was looking for the expected return on a 9-5 payout with a wong teaser
michael99000
michael99000
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October 22nd, 2010 at 3:21:59 PM permalink
Here are the rules at The Greek for teasers. Note that any one loss in the teaser makes the bet a loss regradless of the other pushes. Its
also like that at beteagle where I used to play, if you lose any game in a teaser it loses.

Teaser Rules
•Any one loss constitutes a loss.
•If a selection in the teaser is a push, the teaser will drop to the next lower level if a lower level is offered for that particular teaser. A push in a two team teaser without a loss will make the entire bet a push.
•Each distinct teaser is limited to $100,000.00 maximum payout.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 22nd, 2010 at 4:43:11 PM permalink
Thanks for that information. I just added to my page to say that a 3-team 9-5 Wong teaser is worth +6.88%. They also have a good 5-team teaser that 5 to 1, which is worth +20.52%.

Also, I went downtown today and found that I was in error in saying Cal Neva paid 5 to 1 on a 5-team 6.5-point teaser. That is what they pay for 6 teams. So my sports book guide was in error. From my notes, I forgot to write down the 7-2 for a 5-team teaser, and incorrectly slid everything else higher over.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
dogman
dogman
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October 22nd, 2010 at 6:13:40 PM permalink
There a great book but they shade their teasers to hurt the "wongs". For example many books have Denver at -8 and -8 1/2this Sunday but they have them at -9(+105) so if you tease them 6 points you won't get past the three and lay -2 1/2, you would still be laying 3.
CoolMike
CoolMike
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October 22nd, 2010 at 7:08:36 PM permalink
So, out of curiosity, what did you have as the real advantage for the Cal Neva teaser? I would think moving from a 5-1 payout to a 7-2 payout pushes the teaser bet back to having a house edge.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 22nd, 2010 at 9:53:11 PM permalink
Quote: dogman

There a great book but they shade their teasers to hurt the "wongs". For example many books have Denver at -8 and -8 1/2this Sunday but they have them at -9(+105) so if you tease them 6 points you won't get past the three and lay -2 1/2, you would still be laying 3.



You're right. As I write this everybody has Denver at -8 or -8.5, but the Greek is -9 +105, as you said. I suspect you're right about the reason. Have you seen them do that before?


Quote: CoolMike

So, out of curiosity, what did you have as the real advantage for the Cal Neva teaser? I would think moving from a 5-1 payout to a 7-2 payout pushes the teaser bet back to having a house edge.



I saw it, but the house edge was very high. I already deleted all that work.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
michael99000
michael99000
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October 23rd, 2010 at 1:48:31 AM permalink
In some cases a two team moneyline parlay actually works out better than a 2 team six point teaser.
Example:
This saturday the following lines are offered on two college games..
Miami -6.5 over North Carolina, and Miami moneyline is -255

Iowa -6.5 over Wisconsin, and Wisconin moneyline is -260

I can do a two team six point teaser which gives me Miami -.5 and Iowa -.5, and risk 100 to win 83.

BUT I can also do a two team parlay of the money lines on both favorites which gives me

Miami ML -255/ Iowa ML -260 and if I risk 100 on that it pays 90.

Basically they are the same bet (College football cant end in a tie game). but the parlay pays out better.

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