Fiinal October 9th game recap & box score: fizzle, thud. By chance I happened to be at three of the last four Greinke starts of 2017, and that horse was going lame or else kidnapped & replaced by an imposter. I hope four months out to pasture does the trick. But the best (overall most complete) baseball team won. So wait till next year, or till 2022 if they end up on the hook for paying $31 million a year for an empty #1 rotation spot.
Now I have no active baseball wagers. This is morally offensive and I think probably illegal in Nevada, but I don’t see anything I want to buy at this point. Here’s the apparent consensus of current World Series futures odds that I’ve converted to the implied break-even win percentage probability (first number including vig), and the FiveThirtyEight
estimate of World Series win probability
(second number), and the difference between the two (#2 - #1).
LAD 31%, 27%, -4
HOU 25%, 24%, -1
CLE 20%, 23%, +3
CHC 18%, 15%, -3
NYY 11%, 7%, -4
WAS 6%, 4%, -2
As two division series are decided while the other two are unresolved, this could alternatively be viewed as: 31%/30% for the winner of the New York @Cleveland elimination game, and 24%/19% for the winner of the Washingon-Chicago series. The “overnight” of tomorrow’s individual game moneyline at Westgate:
WAS +154, CHC -164
NYY +170, CLE -185
“I've had many years that I was not so successful as a player, as it is a game of skill.” -Casey Stengel