SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 19th, 2017 at 9:48:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Bills +5.5 is my fade of the week!

I really think the public is WAY overreacting to what happened to them last week, so I am specifically going against line move and trusting the initial handicappers on this one. Besides that, the Saints have a high-powered offense, and I'm not convinced that the Chargers are actually going to play an offense this game, might just have Special Teams stay out there for the whole thing.

Here is how I am kind of looking at it:

Bills Offense: 20.44 PPG
Bills Defense: 21.78 PPG

Chargers Offense: 18.56 PPG
Chargers Defense: 19.11 PPG

Offense: 20.44 - 18.56 = 1.88 Bills
Defense: 21.78 - 19.11 = 2.67 Chargers

Absolute Difference: 2.67 - 1.88 = 0.79 Chargers

Line: Chargers -1

Then, I think the opening Line may well have given the Chargers three points for home, but they don't really have a home. Even still, I don't think the Bills should be 5.5 point dogs, much less the increase such that they currently sit at 6.5-7 point dogs with a -10 or -5 lay.

Bills all day long.



Ummmm.... does your analysis include data on a new QB? How about defense against the run WITH Marcel Dareus (top few) and WITHOUT Marcel Dareus (bottom few)? The Bills were carved up both through the air and on the ground against both the Jets and the Saints since trading Dareus. I assume you saw ZERO of their last two games to make your selection. I think the Bills might be the second worst team in the league right now (sorry Browns...) If 5th round pick Nathan Peterman plays like a first rounder then I will be proven wrong. I'll take Chargers -5.5 for a $2 bill if you want that action.
Mission146
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Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 19th, 2017 at 10:02:06 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Ummmm.... does your analysis include data on a new QB? How about defense against the run WITH Marcel Dareus (top few) and WITHOUT Marcel Dareus (bottom few)? The Bills were carved up both through the air and on the ground against both the Jets and the Saints since trading Dareus. I assume you saw ZERO of their last two games to make your selection. I think the Bills might be the second worst team in the league right now (sorry Browns...) If 5th round pick Nathan Peterman plays like a first rounder then I will be proven wrong. I'll take Chargers -5.5 for a $2 bill if you want that action.



We're on! Assuming you mean two dollars, not slang for two hundred. I'm not that confident! I will acquire and mail you an actual two dollar bill if I lose.

The QB situation is of little to no interest to me because I don't think it makes much of a difference. If the season ended this minute, the Bills would be in the playoffs as a WildCard, so despite looking awful the last couple of games, they can't be as bad as the Browns. The Saints have a high-powered offense, best in the league, or in the top two or three. The Jets are averaging 1.5 more PPG than the Chargers on Offense.

MCCown has been much more efficient than Rivers this year and Rivers has no meaningful support. Rivers is not playing at 100%.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 19th, 2017 at 11:13:15 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

We're on! Assuming you mean two dollars, not slang for two hundred. I'm not that confident! I will acquire and mail you an actual two dollar bill if I lose.

The QB situation is of little to no interest to me because I don't think it makes much of a difference. If the season ended this minute, the Bills would be in the playoffs as a WildCard, so despite looking awful the last couple of games, they can't be as bad as the Browns. The Saints have a high-powered offense, best in the league, or in the top two or three. The Jets are averaging 1.5 more PPG than the Chargers on Offense.

MCCown has been much more efficient than Rivers this year and Rivers has no meaningful support. Rivers is not playing at 100%.



Yes. $2. Mike will pay such a debt with an actual $2 bill. What is fascinating is that two seemingly intelligent guys (me band you) can be presented with the same fact set and come to a totally different conclusion. Remember, you are going against a guy who had gotten ONE of his confidence picks right this year!
Mission146
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Mission146
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November 19th, 2017 at 11:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Yes. $2. Mike will pay such a debt with an actual $2 bill. What is fascinating is that two seemingly intelligent guys (me band you) can be presented with the same fact set and come to a totally different conclusion. Remember, you are going against a guy who had gotten ONE of his confidence picks right this year!



We have an Anesthesiologist vs. a guy who was lucky to spell that right, though, so you've probably got me beat! I really did nail that spelling on the first try, for the record. That will be a consolation as I am driving from bank to bank to try to procure a $2 bill after the Bills get curb-stomped.
Vultures can't be choosers.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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November 19th, 2017 at 4:24:08 PM permalink
Sad. Browns. Sad.
Guys (Ed and MAP), please PM me on how you want your $10 each.
PayPal would be my preference. If so, I'll need an email address. Otherwise, let me know.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
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November 19th, 2017 at 4:37:41 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Bills +5.5 is my fade of the week!

Or +30.5 !
I don't give a hoot about what people have to say, I'm laughing as I'm analyzed. Lunatics anonymous, that's where we belong, Sure, cause I am one, till my strength is gone, Yeah, this beat goes on - Da Kings: The North Coast's Friday Anthem
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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November 19th, 2017 at 5:15:10 PM permalink
Well, I'm not about to embark on a sports betting career.

I went 0-6 for the 2nd week this season -and most of my picks missed by a mile. And of the other 4 picks I was considering this week (one of which was Mission146's Bills) , I would have lost 3 and pushed on 1. So, I would have been 0-9-1 - that's pretty improbable if each game was a coin-flip.

I have to conclude that this is not just negative variance. I truly must suck-eth mightily.
GenWyzgy
GenWyzgy
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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November 19th, 2017 at 5:39:38 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My record is interesting. I am pretty sure in the history of this game I have far more perfect weeks than any player, and far more winless weeks than any player. As my Mr. Average title from last year proves, when I think I know something I really don't.



Oh SOOPOO, I hate to call you out or anything,, But I am the defending Mr. Average!

Maybe you were in 2015?

I had to go 5-0 in week 17 to get to .500, but I did it and won the coveted title!

SOOPOO 50 42 54.35%
GWAE 54 46 54.00%
Wudged 48 42 53.33%
AyeCarumba 49 43 53.26%
Paradigm 50 44 53.19%
FourFiveFace 51 45 53.13%
JML24 44 39 53.01%
Aluisio 45 40 52.94%
Terapined 41 38 51.90%
EdCollins 45 43 51.14%
GenWyzgy 47 46 50.54%
SM777 42 45 48.28%

Now, by virtue of a 4-1 week, I should be at exactly .500 so far this season. Ah, it feels good to be back home!
miplet
miplet 
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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November 19th, 2017 at 7:44:11 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Falcons +3-confidence


Wow for the first time in the history of doing picks I have never went against the Seahawks (that I recall). I was in a rush and did my usual copy and paste. Seen the +3 and the current line of +2 so I made that my confidence pick.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 20th, 2017 at 5:17:03 AM permalink
Quote: GenWyzgy

Oh SOOPOO, I hate to call you out or anything,, But I am the defending Mr. Average!

Maybe you were in 2015



You must be right! But I'm coming after you this year then........

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