lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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July 19th, 2017 at 3:21:13 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

the beatable bets offered are obviously those have less volume


correct me if i'm wrong but my understanding is that betting big on small games tips the books to the fact that they're dealing with a pro and they then try to mess with you in various ways.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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July 19th, 2017 at 6:37:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

correct me if i'm wrong but my understanding is that betting big on small games tips the books to the fact that they're dealing with a pro and they then try to mess with you in various ways.



no, they may move the line after you make a large bet because they want wagers on both sides of the line - and if you have a pattern of doing that routinely then they may eventually consider you a "wise guy" and move the line depending upon how you bet because they respect your opinion.

The big sports books are not "afraid" of professional bettors -because it is very hard for anyone to beat the 10% vigorish. And if you are a professional, I would assume that you would spread your bets around anyway.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
djatc
July 19th, 2017 at 10:02:35 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

no, they may move the line after you make a large bet because they want wagers on both sides of the line - and if you have a pattern of doing that routinely then they may eventually consider you a "wise guy" and move the line depending upon how you bet because they respect your opinion.

The big sports books are not "afraid" of professional bettors -because it is very hard for anyone to beat the 10% vigorish. And if you are a professional, I would assume that you would spread your bets around anyway.



I don't agree with much of that, but it's a moot point for most, because of the last sentence.

Online books will limit and boot you for sure. Fairly unpredictably.

You don't have as much to worry about with Vegas books unless you are a pretty big bettor. However William Hill has booted a lot of people. Our own, Tom G was booted from the app. I know others who have been booted from the MGM app.

On the other hand, I know a guy who is a bet runner and he doesn't really hide it at all. He answers the phone and runs up to the counter and bets pretty decent amounts. He hasn't really had any problems.

If you are willing to go make the bets in person, and are not often betting 5k+ per game, you should be able to figure out how to do it.

Really, these kinds of things aren't what the OP should worry about. Something like 1% of sports bettors are winners. So there's your first hurdle.

Another good thing to read is the FAQ on sportsbetting at the 2+2 forums.

Also, just in case you are getting these ideas form RJ Bell, or "journalists" who facilitate conmen like Vegas Dave. When people start talking about "sharps" and "wiseguys" I get a little worried. So, here's the thread I made for these occasions.

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/28176-are-pick-sellers-and-touts-legit/
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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July 20th, 2017 at 4:25:49 AM permalink
imo the "handicappers think tank" at the sbr forum is a good resource. a lot of ideas get thrown around, not all of them are good. any bogus posts get shot down immediately. they also have a discussion forum for all the major sports including the NFL:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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