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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 8th, 2017 at 5:26:19 AM permalink
Yesterdays' Results:
 Rockies +100
 Dodgers +700
 Orioles +700
 Red Sox -100
 Reds +115
 Cubs -1435
 Rangers -1085
 Giants -100
 Astros -1183
 Twins -100

Yesterday's results: -2,388
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -85
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -3,003

YTD Total -26,381
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -423
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,055
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -7,434
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 8th, 2017 at 5:35:24 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Angels 143 Focus 7X's
 Brewers 128
 Diamondbacks -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Pirates -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Orioles 125
 Red Sox 106
 Phillies 100
 Cubs -200 DogFlips 7X's
 Astros -180 DogFlips 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 8th, 2017 at 3:18:50 PM permalink
Steel,

I think its tough to win ML on the heavy chalk. You need to hit 66% plus on picks around -200. Most (i.e. all) teams wont even do 60-66% for season remainder and wins will be distributed all over (not just as favs). If you like the chalk for summer, and especially at 7x bet size, then consider normal run-lines which do post with the ML. I like the "alt" line better but either way some form of run lines has been where it's at. There are less 1 run games than typical this season. I don't even thin there was a 1 run game today. Thus run-lines and the alts all paid 150 to 250. Betting -150 or so is often too much juice to overcome when more often than not you can get the fav way cheaper on the runline or just take the dog and get 180 or so and try to hit 35% (which your algo did).
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 8, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 9th, 2017 at 8:13:11 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Angels 1001
 Brewers -100
 Diamondbacks 700
 Pirates -980
 Orioles -100
 Red Sox -100
 Phillies -100
 Cubs -1400
 Astros 700

Yesterday's results: -379
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -400
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,001
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -980

YTD Total -26,760
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -823
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -14,054
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -8,414
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
Thanks for this post from:
RS
June 9th, 2017 at 8:24:00 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Marlins 117
 Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers 121
 Mets -105 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 126
 Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers 118
 Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
 Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 105
 Twins 107
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 9th, 2017 at 3:34:42 PM permalink
For those who have PM'd me about playing these picks and other heavy chalk. ***You can also use the "alt" lines to hedge.

For example, if you're playing the Indians today at 7x you will be risking $1820 to win $700. You can hedge this with the "alt" line that pays over 4 to 1 for White Sox, Thus a $450 bet hedges you. If it hits you'll be very happy you bought the insurance.

Basically its about a 85-90% chance of making $250 (or breaking even). And a 10-15% chance of losing big (i.e. 1 run White Sox win; although most of that loss comes from playing the heavy chalk).

Really you end up getting the Indians at around -170 once you hedge with the "alt"; fyi: this bet is designed for those who still think Indians will win but want to limit exposure.

**Without hedge there is a 30%-40% chance of losing big (which you can cut down to 10% or so with an "alt" hedge). Most pro bettors will tell you to be very suspect of implied MLB odds that suggest >70% winner; that's likely many of you are wary of laying the chalk on this one.




Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 Marlins 117
 Nationals -162 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -260 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers 121
 Mets -105 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 126
 Astros -167 DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers 118
 Blue Jays -123 Focus 7X's
 Dodgers -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 105
 Twins 107

Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 9, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 10th, 2017 at 8:23:10 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Marlins +117
 Nationals -1134
 Indians +700
 Tigers -100
 Mets -735
 Orioles -100
 Astros -1169
 Brewers +118
 Blue Jays -861
 Dodgers +700
 Royals -100
 Twins +107

Yesterday's results: -2,457
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +42
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,596
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -903

YTD Total -29,217
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -781
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,650
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,317
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 10th, 2017 at 8:38:29 AM permalink
This is one of those days where I will be staying away from any sharp objects..................

Today's Picks:
 Nationals -170 DogFlips 7X's
 Braves 100
 Athletics 108
 Cardinals -220 DogFlips 7X's
 Twins 140 Focus 7X's
 Pirates 101
 Padres 110 Focus 7X's
 Astros -182 DogFlips 7X's
 Indians -210 DogFlips 7X's
 Red Sox -190 DogFlips 7X's
 Yankees -220 DogFlips 7X's
 Mariners 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 10th, 2017 at 6:00:12 PM permalink
Steel,

Your +130 Dogs are still performing. Especially on the "alt" line. You should wait till you have evidence that Vegas chalk starts hitting at above 60%. You need at least 100 games minimum to suggest the algo should be flipped.

Your wallet can get crushed on 7x chalk since your bet size is double the max bet (ie $700) of the dog picks. You now seem to be laying $1400 or more on many games. I'd suggest a hedge, to your followers, like a mentioned yesterday. You can still win big but if the chalk picks fail you can offset most of the risk/loss.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 11th, 2017 at 9:15:45 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Nationals -1190
 Braves -100
 Athletics -100
 Cardinals 700
 Twins 980
 Pirates 101
 Padres -700
 Astros 700
 Indians -1470
 Red Sox 700
 Yankees 700
 Mariners -100

Yesterday's results: +221
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -199
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +280
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +140

YTD Total -28,996
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -980
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -15,370
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,177
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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