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RS
RS
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May 31st, 2017 at 2:37:36 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.


Ah, I didn't catch the YTD part. It was at the bottom below the "YTD" part....heh, I'll chalk it up to sleep deprivation.


Big day today, lots of 7x doggos.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 31st, 2017 at 2:49:55 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Ah, I didn't catch the YTD part. It was at the bottom below the "YTD" part....heh, I'll chalk it up to sleep deprivation.


Big day today, lots of 7x doggos.



Yep. No worries.
Lots of doggies.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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May 31st, 2017 at 3:00:35 PM permalink
RS,

If/when you find a 30% (or less) implied moneyline then in the long run you will be up on those bets. There is no situation that consistently comes up short that often. I'll take a crap team against Kershaw at 30% implied. Variance makes those kinds of dogs winners after hundred of games. You will not find a large enough sample to suggest otherwise.

>>
>>
I agree to an extent, although I'm not particularly sure what you're saying.

Just because a team or set of players has a 40% win rate over an entire season, where they play against a range of very bad to very good teams.....that doesn't mean they always have a 40% probability to win any game (assuming same set of players and all that)....they might have a 50-55% winrate against the poor teams and a 30% winrate against the good teams. So even though the average may be 40% (or whatever such number), it doesn't mean you can apply that number to every game those players play.

There's also going to be less variance in the outcome between a terrible team and a good team. Also, I'd have to do some more thinking on this variance aspect, but right now I'm leaning more towards "the odds are the odds", and positive or negative variance evens it out in the end.
Last edited by: bazooooka on May 31, 2017
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 31st, 2017 at 3:10:06 PM permalink
Steel,

You don't need to overthink it. Just add 90 points to any of your +130 picks. That's how you can track this if you're not laying the bets. Just use your normal morning odds and adjust the dog picks by the +90 for the "alt" =1.5 lines.

**This will be very close to the books (which differ anyhow) and if algo works you'kl be quite happy. So far it's been great; since your algo hits more than 33% and you will be laying bets at above +220 on average.

Quote: steeldco

RS, that +700 is YTD. But it is really a moot point since I am not going to publishing these since I can't get lines early.

Last edited by: bazooooka on May 31, 2017
bazooooka
bazooooka
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May 31st, 2017 at 3:13:48 PM permalink
Steel, the alt -1.5 lines exist all over and normally are 80 to 110 points above the odds you play. See below for today's example. If you want to track them just add 90 points to your +130 picks.
""
MLB - ALTERNATE RUNLINES - MAY 31
ALTERNATE RUNLINES
May 31 6957 MIL 1½ RL -1½+255
7:10 PM 6958 NYM 1½ RL +1½-325
May 31 6959 LAD 1½ RL -1½+170
8:15 PM 6960 STL 1½ RL +1½-220
May 31 6961 WAS 1½ RL +1½-425
10:15 PM 6962 SFO 1½ RL -1½+325
May 31 6965 OAK 1½ RL -1½+205
6:10 PM 6966 CLE 1½ RL +1½-255
May 31 6967 NYY 1½ RL
7:05 PM 6968 BAL 1½ RL
May 31 6969 TAM 1½ RL +1½-280
8:05 PM 6970 TEX 1½ RL -1½+220
May 31 6971 BOS 1½ RL +1½-305
8:10 PM 6972 CWS 1½ RL -1½+245
May 31 6973 DET 1½ RL -1½+160
8:15 PM 6974 KAN 1½ RL +1½-200
May 31 6977 ATL 1½ RL -1½+175
10:05 PM 6978 LAA 1½ RL +1½-225
May 31 6979 COL 1½ RL -1½+230
10:10 PM 6980 SEA 1½ RL +1½-290


Quote: steeldco

OK. No alt. run lines were available at 5 Dimes. Bazooooka, I would suggest that if you would like to follow these, then feel free to publish the picks and lines here. I won't be doing it.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
 Twins 110 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles -102
 Brewers 170 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rangers 120
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Dodgers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rockies 166 +130Dogs 7X's
 Giants 160 +130Dogs 7X's

Last edited by: bazooooka on May 31, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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June 1st, 2017 at 3:47:52 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Twins -700
 Athletics +945
 Orioles +100
 Brewers +1190
 Rangers -100
 White Sox -700
 Dodgers -700
 Rockies -700
 Giants -700

Yesterday's results: -2,165
+130dogs -1,465
Other dogs -100
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -700
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -18,327
+130dogs -1,095
Other dogs -464
Favorites -503
Focus Picks -13,508
FocusFlips -2,757
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 1st, 2017 at 6:49:02 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Rockies 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Orioles 113
 Yankees 142 +130Dogs 7X's
 Marlins 105
 Twins 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:53:19 PM permalink
Steel,

Both your winning dogs covered their alt lines again. Thus you left about $1100 bucks on the table at 7x bet size. You picks are up on the year if using the alt lines. For kicks you really should just add +90 to your picks and track the alts (on the side) that I hope you're playing these. Your profitable +130 picks (i.e. picks that win on the -.5 line) do so at a clip above 50% even when using the alt. Anything above 33% and it makes cents =) Using the alt lines pay about $1900 on average when sized at 7x; this one change, and sticking to your dog picks, made your system a huge winner. I hope someone else sees that.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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June 1st, 2017 at 1:59:12 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Both your winning dogs covered their alt lines again. Thus you left about $1100 bucks on the table at 7x bet size. You picks are up on the year if using the alt lines. For kicks you really should just add +90 to your picks and track the alts (on the side) that I hope you're playing these. Your profitable +130 picks (i.e. picks that win on the -.5 line) do so at a clip above 50% even when using the alt. Anything above 33% and it makes cents =) Using the alt lines pay about $1900 on average when sized at 7x; this one change, and sticking to your dog picks, made your system a huge winner. I hope someone else sees that.



bazooooka, I mentioned before that you are free to post those picks here. I'm not into making up numbers. OK?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
djatc
June 1st, 2017 at 2:26:21 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I'm not into making up numbers.

And good on you for that. Wagers that are publicly posted in advance of the event using real betting lines one has actually found open and readily available for real-money wagering at the time of the posting is the MOST essential thing. There are enough phony fantasies around (including sometimes popping up here - for a while) and I think you deserve some applause for not being that. So there, FWIW.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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