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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 26th, 2017 at 10:35:29 AM permalink
Boy, it sure seems like the number of +130dog picks has dried up. I'm going to look at the number of picks made at this time last year vs. this year.

Today's Picks:
 Reds 111
 White Sox -132 Focus 7X's
 Astros 102
 Yankees 105
 Tigers 116
 Twins 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 118 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 26th, 2017 at 10:59:17 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Boy, it sure seems like the number of +130dog picks has dried up. I'm going to look at the number of picks made at this time last year vs. this year.



LOL, I guess I'm going to show that I am full of crap again..........
Last year the number of +130dogs picked through 04/25/17 was 47. This year it picked 45. Close enough I guess.........just shows how little should be done on a subjective basis when data is available.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 26th, 2017 at 1:47:03 PM permalink
How far back have you tracked these (or backtested your algo)? How many years and picks? I'd assume over 1000+ if were talking year(s)? And are you near 40% over that large number of picks?
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 26th, 2017 at 2:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

How far back have you tracked these (or backtested your algo)? How many years and picks? I'd assume over 1000+ if were talking year(s)? And are you near 40% over that large number of picks?



I started the +130dogs in August of 2013.

The total picks by year since then:
2016 195
2015 470
2014 472
2013 67

The win rate by year:
2016 43.08%
2015 38.94%
2014 43.43%
2013 49.25%
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
April 26th, 2017 at 2:56:26 PM permalink
Impressive; Have you tracked the closing lines on those picks? I'd suspect you getting about 15+ points of value on average; meaning you average bet might be near +145 but those same picks are closing around +125.

A sub 130 closing line would be consistent with the 40%+ hit rate. If you are are laying these at 145 or so you indeed will make good money and should only bet these types of picks for the next 1000 picks. 1000 picks hitting 5% above their expected rate does start to approach statistical significance I'd think.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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April 27th, 2017 at 6:26:12 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Reds -100
 White Sox +700
 Astros -100
 Yankees +105
 Tigers -100
 Twins -700
 Padres +826

Yesterday's results: +631
+130dogs -700
Other dogs -195
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +1,526

YTD Total -4,141
+130dogs +3,673
Other dogs -1,115
Favorites -991
Focus Picks -5,708
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 27th, 2017 at 6:27:43 AM permalink
Thanks bazooooka. I have not tracked closing lines, nor do I see how I can find the additional time to do so. I'll look into it though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 27th, 2017 at 6:43:23 AM permalink
The new daily indicator is foretelling a great day for the +130dogs today.......let's hope it's right.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 195 +130Dogs 7X's
 Mariners 123
 Cardinals -179
 Rockies 110
 Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 Astros 160 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 153 +130Dogs 7X's
 Athletics 112
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
April 27th, 2017 at 8:51:20 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

The new daily indicator is foretelling a great day for the +130dogs today.......let's hope it's right.

Today's Picks:
 <snip>
 Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 

I do not see where you found this one at 132.

william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now

Giants home dog.
they won last night 2

go dogs!!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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April 27th, 2017 at 9:20:13 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I do not see where you found this one at 132.

william hill is at 116 and stations at 120
covers shows opened at 101 at 114 now

Giants home dog.
they won last night 2

go dogs!!
Sally



The below is what was on SBGGlobal at the time that I posted:
Thursday, 27th April 2017
 NATIONAL LEAGUE
 1:05 PM 
 951  Marlins +1½ (-220) 8 (-105) -106
 952  Phillies -1½ (+180) 8 (-115) -104
 1:10 PM PITCHING CHANGEN Syndergaard for M Harvey
 953  Braves +1½ (-120) 7 (-105) 195
 954  Mets -1½ (EV) 7 (-115) -215
 1:10 PM 
 961  Mariners +1½ (-175) 8 (-105) 123
 962  Tigers -1½ (+155) 8 (-115) -133
 1:45 PM Doubleheader Game #1PITCHING CHANGESM Latos for C LawrenceC Martinez for A Wainwright
 969  D1 Blue Jays +1½ (-130) 8 (-120) 169
 970  D1 Cardinals -1½ (+110) 8 (EV) -179
 3:10 PM 
 955  Nationals -1½ (+135) 11 (-115) -120
 956  Rockies +1½ (-155) 11 (-105) 110
 3:45 PM 
 957  Dodgers -1½ (+115) 7½ (EV) -142
 958  Giants +1½ (-135) 7½ (-120) 132
 6:10 PM 
 963  Astros +1½ (-135) 8½ (-110) 160
 964  Indians -1½ (+115) 8½ (-110) -170
 7:10 PM 
 965  Yankees +1½ (-135) 7½ (EV) 164
 966  Red Sox -1½ (+115) 7½ (-120) -174
 7:15 PM PITCHING CHANGESC Lawrence for M LatosA Wainwright for C Martinez
 971  D2 Blue Jays +1½ (-145) 8½ (-115) 151
 972  D2 Cardinals -1½ (+125) 8½ (-105) -161
 9:40 PM 
 959  Padres +1½ (-135) 10½ (-105) 153
 960  Diamondbacks -1½ (+115) 10½ (-115) -163
 10:05 PM 
 967  Athletics +1½ (-200) 8 (-115) 112
 968  Angels -1½ (+170) 8 (-105) -122


Also, this is what Covers has:
BetNow.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 7:23:26 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-105 (Open)
04/26/17 7:42:45 PM
115
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:33:12 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:42:47 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:02:46 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:42:45 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:43:00 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:32:46 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:42:45 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:42:45 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:52:55 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:22:45 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:42:45 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:02:45 PM
116
7.5-130
BetOnline.ag
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 1:28:41 PM
101 (Open)
8-115 (Open)
04/26/17 3:48:27 PM
113
7.5100
04/26/17 4:58:28 PM
113
7.5-105
04/26/17 7:48:26 PM
113
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:38:27 PM
124
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:58:26 PM
125
7.5-110
04/26/17 11:38:26 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:38:27 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 6:48:25 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:08:30 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 7:58:25 AM
127
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:18:25 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:08:29 AM
122
7.5-130
04/27/17 10:58:26 AM
115
7.5-130
BookMaker
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 3:45:15 PM
114 (Open)
7.5100 (Open)
04/26/17 7:55:14 PM
114
7.5-110
04/26/17 10:45:11 PM
114
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:55:11 PM
123
7.5-115
04/27/17 12:25:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:35:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:55:13 AM
130
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:35:12 AM
129
7.5-120
04/27/17 8:55:12 AM
131
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:15:13 AM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 9:45:12 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:25:13 AM
123
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:05:13 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:15:13 AM
114
7.5-125
GTbets.eu
Line
Over/Under
04/26/17 10:21:08 PM
115 (Open)
7.5-110 (Open)
04/26/17 10:31:08 PM
115
7.5-115
04/26/17 10:41:09 PM
123
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:01:07 PM
125
7.5-115
04/26/17 11:41:06 PM
125
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:31:08 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 12:41:06 AM
123
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:31:07 AM
135
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:41:09 AM
133
7.5-120
04/27/17 1:51:07 AM
132
7.5-120
04/27/17 3:31:08 AM
132
7.5-115
04/27/17 4:11:07 AM
131
7.5-115
04/27/17 6:51:08 AM
128
7.5-115
04/27/17 7:51:07 AM
130
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:11:06 AM
122
7.5-115
04/27/17 9:21:06 AM
122
7.5-120
04/27/17 10:11:07 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:21:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:31:06 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:41:08 AM
122
7.5-125
04/27/17 10:51:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:01:08 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:11:06 AM
116
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:21:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:31:07 AM
114
7.5-130
04/27/17 11:41:06 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 11:51:09 AM
114
7.5-125
04/27/17 12:01:07 PM
116
7.5-130
04/27/17 12:11:09 PM
116
7.5-130
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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