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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 20th, 2017 at 9:44:46 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Nationals +125?

What????



Not sure what happened here. Will need to re-post.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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April 20th, 2017 at 9:52:28 AM permalink
Let's try this again....
Today's Picks:
  Blue Jays 139 Focus 1X's
 Twins EV
 Tigers 112 Focus 7X's
 Angels 153 +130Dogs 1X's
 Nationals -166
 Rangers 106
 Cardinals -113 Focus 7X's
 Mariners -147

RS, thanks for pointing out my screw up!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 20th, 2017 at 3:37:05 PM permalink
It looks like the daily indicator was in the ballpark. Throttling back the +130dog wager size saved 600 today.
Since the indicator is calling for a bad day tomorrow, I am considering not playing the +130dogs at all tomorrow.
I will publish them even if I don't take them.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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April 20th, 2017 at 4:28:21 PM permalink
Steel,

Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 21st, 2017 at 4:50:05 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Blue Jays -100
 Twins -100
 Tigers -700
 Angels -100
 Nationals +100
 Rangers +106
 Cardinals -791
 Mariners -147

Yesterday's results: -1,732
+130dogs -100
Other dogs +6
Favorites -47
Focus Picks -1,591

YTD Total -557
+130dogs +5,873
Other dogs -300
Favorites -926
Focus Picks -5,204
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 21st, 2017 at 4:56:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Did you backtest this indicator against all your old +130 dogs of last few years? Should we assume your 1x picks will hit at less then 40% based on your changing bankroll? At 7x dog picks are you expecting near 50% win rates?



No. It was not back tested. That would require way too much time. I can assure you that if it wouldn't be a tortuous effort, I would do it. The 1X picks would, should this process work, hit at a lower rate. Conversely, the ones remaining at 7Xs would hit a higher rate. What rate? I don't know. It's way too early considering the fact that there is only a teeny tiny sample. I have no idea whether this change will provide value. Not yet.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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April 21st, 2017 at 10:11:31 AM permalink
Well, this is interesting. I have no need to worry about +130dogs having a bad day. There were none picked today.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 102
 Mets -141 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 113
 Padres 102
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak 
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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April 21st, 2017 at 10:31:56 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Well, this is interesting. I have no need to worry about +130dogs having a bad day. There were none picked today.

Today's Picks:
 Braves 102
 Mets -141 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 139 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 113
 Padres 102



Have you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?
steeldco
steeldco
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April 21st, 2017 at 1:11:32 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Have you ever calculated what all the 130+ dogs would net (up until you start flipping), to compared with the algorithm?



I assume you mean to include all 130+ dogs whether they were picked by the algorithm or not? If so, I have not done that. If I have some time I'll see if I can.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 21st, 2017 at 1:37:07 PM permalink
gamerfreak, now that I have thought about it some. I believe that I did do that in the first year that I started to believe that the +130dogs (picked by the algorithm) worked. I'll have to check the old threads. They didn't do as well as the algorithm's picks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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