2017 MLB Money Line Picks

Yesterday's Results:
 Giants +100
 Nationals +100
 Mets +105
 Royals +125
 Astros +100
 White Sox -100
 Cardinals +126

Yesterday's results: +556
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +230
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +126
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +200

YTD Total -29,333
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,439
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,393
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,032

Quote: bazooooka

As much energy many put in to sniff out upsets; monetize that. If one goes back and looks they will see around 75% of all your winning +130 hit on the alt and you would have averaged around +190 on those winners.

What method are you using to back test these? I don't have access to easy to a database for these plays. But we can see that you posted some lists a few times. Checking the results betting $100 per game:

31 May - underdogs on the runline went 2-7 for a loss of $240; on the money line they went 3-6 for a loss of $173

17 June - underdogs on the runline went 0-4 for for a loss of $400; on the money line they went 1-3 for a loss of $194

23 June - runline has a record of 4-11, -$230; money line record of 8-7, +$257

26 June - runline 1-6, -$315; moneyline 2-5, -$163

16 June - runlines edited and erased (any other days where this happened?), runline 4-12 estimated -$400; money line 7-8 +$41

Any other dates I missed where runline odds were posted?

As an FYI for those interested, I am unable to download data from baseball-reference. It states that there are no results from yesterday available. I don't know when that will be fixed.

Today's Picks:
 Pirates 109
 Marlins -133 Focus
 Yankees -150 DogFlips
 Braves 104

My method is in my own account. But if you want you can adjust all old odds for "alts". Just add 60-100 points based on the underlying moneyline dog odds. Or go look at all Steels dog winners and subtract for the few that won by 1 run and then whatever you have left you can then multiply by +220 (that's close to the average I've got factoring in all winners)

Hell; Even today there was only 1 game that had a Final within 1 run. The run lines and the alts have been the profitable play this year. Even if you like Steels dog flips favorites then I'd play runlines. But of course I prefer the alts and I need to only hit 1 out of 3 to profit at average 200+ odds. Simple system as long as Steel's algo keeps sniffing dogs. Sadly, even Steel will admit the Algo performs better before July. I've banked my profits.



**Those who have played them, and using Steels +130, are very happy. Others who are suspect have already missed the easy pickings.

Quote: TomG

What method are you using to back test these? I don't have access to easy to a database for these plays. But we can see that you posted some lists a few times. Checking the results betting $100 per game:

31 May - underdogs on the runline went 2-7 for a loss of $240; on the money line they went 3-6 for a loss of $173

17 June - underdogs on the runline went 0-4 for for a loss of $400; on the money line they went 1-3 for a loss of $194

23 June - runline has a record of 4-11, -$230; money line record of 8-7, +$257

26 June - runline 1-6, -$315; moneyline 2-5, -$163

16 June - runlines edited and erased (any other days where this happened?), runline 4-12 estimated -$400; money line 7-8 +$41

Any other dates I missed where runline odds were posted?

Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates +100
 Marlins -133
 Yankees -150
 Braves -100

Yesterday's results: -283
+130dogs 0
Other dogs 0
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -133
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -150

YTD Total -29,616
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,439
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,526
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,182

Today's Picks:
 Orioles 110
 Tigers 100
 Phillies 220 Focus
 White Sox 110
 Astros -170 DogFlips
 Twins 112
 Cardinals -125 Focus
 Angels -102
 Dodgers -195 DogFlips

Yesterday's Results:
 Orioles -100
 Tigers 0
 Phillies -100
 White Sox +110
 Astros -170
 Twins -100
 Cardinals +100
 Angels -102
 Dodgers +100

Yesterday's results: -262
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -192
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -70

YTD Total -29,878
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,631
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,526
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,252

Today's Picks:
 White Sox 110
 Twins -120 Focus
 Rays 116
 Giants 112
 Phillies 155 Focus
 Reds 104
 Yankees 115
 Nationals 106
 Indians -155 DogFlips
 Dodgers -185 DogFlips

Yesterday's Results:
 White Sox -100
 Twins -120
 Rays +116
 Giants +112
 Phillies -100
 Reds +104
 Yankees -100
 Nationals -100
 Indians -105
 Dodgers +100

Yesterday's results: -193
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +32
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -220
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -5

YTD Total -30,071
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,599
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,746
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,257

Today's Picks:
 Red Sox 100
 Mets -154 DogFlips
 Indians 110
 Orioles -103
 Yankees 100 Focus
 Twins 125 Focus
 Dodgers -177 DogFlips

Yesterday's Results:
 Red Sox +100
 Mets -154
 Indians +110
 Orioles +100
 Yankees -100
 Twins -100
 Dodgers -177

Yesterday's results: -221
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +310
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -200
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -331

YTD Total -30,292
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,289
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -16,946
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,588

Today's Picks:
 Pirates 100
 Blue Jays 120 Focus
 Cardinals -141 DogFlips
 Rangers 105 Focus
 Angels 110 Focus
 Rockies -168 DogFlips
 Royals 125

Yesterday's Results:
 Pirates -100
 Blue Jays -100
 Cardinals +100
 Rangers -100
 Angels -100
 Rockies +100
 Royals +125

Yesterday's results: -75
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +25
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -300
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips +200

YTD Total -30,367
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,264
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -17,246
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,388

Lookin' like it's going to be one of them crazy days.....

Today's Picks:
 Blue Jays -105 Focus
 Tigers -210 DogFlips
 Angels 105 Focus
 Marlins 115
 Rays 127
 Athletics -150 DogFlips
 Brewers -159 DogFlips
 Mariners -132 Focus
 Indians -330 DogFlips
 Astros -155 DogFlips
 Rangers -127 Focus
 Rockies -150 DogFlips

So here's a little info on the dogflips. I previously had mentioned having some faith in this metric and that this may be more of an issue of timing. That I may have been 5 days early in making the flip from +130dogs to dogflips. The current stats may be proving me right. I had started the dogflips on 06/05/17 and for the first 5 days through 06/09/17 it went 7 wins and 11 losses with a net loss of (reduced to single units for this writing for comparison purposes) -1,331. Since then it has recorded 55 wins and 32 losses for a net win of 136.

Yup heavy chalk was crushing you that's why you lost $1300 in a week as a $100 dollar bettor but have since had a decent 3 week run but only made a 133 bucks. Play the runline on the chalk or play the altS and get +200 odds and hit/pick at 33% rate. Your algo is still is okay for hitting dogs but not great like before.

Quote: steeldco

So here's a little info on the dogflips. I previously had mentioned having some faith in this metric and that this may be more of an issue of timing. That I may have been 5 days early in making the flip from +130dogs to dogflips. The current stats may be proving me right. I had started the dogflips on 06/05/17 and for the first 5 days through 06/09/17 it went 7 wins and 11 losses with a net loss of (reduced to single units for this writing for comparison purposes) -1,331. Since then it has recorded 55 wins and 32 losses for a net win of 136.

Stupid a** ref at the Indians vs Padres game today.....costin' me $575. Uncool!

Yesterday's Results:
 Blue Jays +100
 Tigers +100
 Angels -100
 Marlins +115
 Rays +127
 Athletics +100
 Brewers +100
 Mariners -132
 Indians -330
 Astros +100
 Rangers -127
 Rockies -150

Yesterday's results: -97
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +242
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -259
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -80

YTD Total -30,464
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,022
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -17,505
FocusFlips -3,557
DogFlips -8,468

Once again baseball-reference has not updated for the prior day's results and therefore I can't download the data. Considering my schedule today, there may not be any picks.

Today's Picks:
 Yankees -180 DogFlips
 Athletics -180 DogFlips
 Nationals 100
 Braves 115 Focus
 Rangers -105 Focus
 Angels 165 Focus
 Cardinals -145 DogFlips
 Rockies -145 DogFlips
 Mariners -125 Focus
 Dodgers -213 DogFlips

To those who PM'd me and asked me why I like run lines (and alt lines),

Example,

Take a look at the junky Giants. Had you just faded them all year you'd be up about 15% on your bankroll and won 60% of the games or so.

However, if you faded them and taken chalk run lines you'd still have won half the games and you would have gotten down around +150 on those fades or more.

The +150 picks you up another 60 points of juice over the typical -110; heck sometimes you get 100 points extra points on the runline. The runline play only costs us 13 runline covers (out of 41) when the Giants lost a 1 run game.

The -$1300 cost (in lost covers) plus {60 extra juice points X 41 winning -1.5 games (ie 2460) } = $1160 more in profit be using runline

***This is additional profit over fading the Giants which already was up 16 units.***

Times by 7 for Steel's way of play and you get near 8K more.

****That's why I play your chalk picks with run lines (or play your dogs on the alt). The "lines" make chalk winner lucrative and upsets extra juiced.

Ps...the Giants lost about 12 wins of their 34 moneyline wins if you bet them to win by -1.5. However those lines often went off around +200 or more when Giants were the dog (often they are the dog) thus easy to see why the extra juice can makes up for moneyline losses if you pick your alt spots. A moneyline pro Giants player would have been crushed. I have never seen anyone beat moneylines long term. But the book's cappers often leave small edges in run lines and alts for those who can come up with algos.

http://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=team%20%3D%20Giants%20and%20season%20%3D%202017&output=summary