lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 19th, 2017 at 4:47:27 AM permalink
on the undercard race #9, the maryland sprint, Whitmore is 9/5 on the morning line. he was a disaster in last year's Derby and got turned into an impressive sprinter having won 4 in a row. only one was a graded stakes, a G3. A.P. Indian is listed at 8/5 and has much more graded stakes experience. he's 7 years old. i'm hoping the class devotees will overbet the Indian and leave me Whitmore at about 3/1. then i'll get interested and jump on his back.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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May 19th, 2017 at 6:10:18 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

I'm wondering about taking Lookin at Lee and Gunnevera, maybe Multiplier on top, putting as many horses underneath as you can. Term of art and Senior investment can be thrown out of the trifectas pretty confidently. BBB mentioned CMM, CE, GUNNEVERA, AD, and it's a very typical comment, enough to scare me that it can't be right because ive seen it at a few places. It could happen, just saying seems the obvious, the common knowledge is usually wrong. You have to figure out where the chinks in the armor are. I am a little less confident doubting AD and GUNNEVERA lately though. Just am not sure who'll disappoint.



I'm a total ploppie when it comes to handicapping horses. But a lucky one. I don't always get the urge, but the force is strong enough on this one, I'm going down to the local track to bet it.

Quote: DD

Don't feel constrained by the title I gave the thread. I was too specific, and probably should have called it something broader like "2017 KY Derby & Triple Crown contenders."



Amended title for you.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 3:08:08 PM permalink
I've lost faith in Conquest Mo Money. I am convinced he will not hold up, thinking Lookin at Lee, Gunnevera , Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, in no particular order, but leaning towards the closers. Honorable mention, Multiplier and Cloud Computing.

Embarrassed I was ready to pick Actress in the Black Eyed Susan and ploppied to Yorkiepoo Princess. Felt so weary, Yorkiepoo Princess was totally ignored everywhere, seriously doubted the horse seeing the odds climbing so, but never changed my bet. I'd say the temptation to change my bet was severely extreme, but don't like cancelling my bets. Had Actress and Corporate Queen for show bets, made overall on the race, but felt terrible seeing $200 win the race and not mine.

As it would turn out, impulse bet Look Who's Talking #10 in race 12, and #11 won at 24/1, That's Too much. Oh the cruel Irony.

As far as the Preakness goes, I'm either going to bet the closers, Gunnevera and/or Lookin at Lee to win and that's it. It's a total flip flop, but the information about the swell appearance of Gunnevera means a lot to sway me. He might have the kick I didn't think he'd have.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 3:13:53 PM permalink
Oh by the way, I'm growing a goatee with mustache suddenly. Todd Pletcher wears a goatee, could it mean Im in denial about Always Dreaming. Things might be looking better for Always Dreaming than I admit.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2017 at 5:25:22 PM permalink
Quote: drf.com

BALTIMORE Always Dreaming accounts for the lowest will-pay in the daily double linking the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. A $2 wager with the Black-Eyed Susan winner, Actress, with Always Dreaming will return $68.80. All-sources handle on the two-day wager was $777,599, up 4 percent from last year.

$2 double will-pays ACTRESS (10) with:
1. Multiplier, $539.20
2. Cloud Computing, $368.80
3. Hence, $576.40
4. Always Dreaming, $68.80
5. Classic Empire, $85.20
6. Gunnevera, $300.40
7. Term of Art, $2,600.20
8. Senior Investment, $1,573.80
9. Lookin At Lee, $406.20
10. Conquest Mo Money, $309.00

10/4,5 was Matt Carouther's $2 dd pick on tvg which might have driven down odds on Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 19th, 2017 at 6:27:31 PM permalink
Eddie O was on the 10, so I did a $1 DD - 5, 7, 10 / 4, 5, 6, 10 = $12

Of course now I'm wishing I did it for $2, but that's how it always goes.

I'm still deciding if I'm going to play a trifecta or not. I just don't think anyone will be able to close to win. I'm kinda just thinking about:

$.50 Trifecta - 4, 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $45

The issue with this bet is that if Always Dreaming wins, the bet will either lose a little money or maybe win a couple of bucks. So it's possible I just go with the 2 most likely to beat him and do: 5, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10 = $30

If Always Dreaming wins then at least I end up being close to even with the double paying.

Have fun everyone!
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:03:19 PM permalink
in the Preakness the 4 and 5 have shown their a cut above the others.....of the newcomers I like the 1 as an improver.....i'll play some small supers keying these three but I hope always dreaming wins by many so there will be great value against him in the Belmont.
get second you pig
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:34:15 PM permalink
Is there a Corey Lanerie type jockey, very knowledgeable and successful at Pimlico. and which Jockey would they be good friends with, that is also in the Preakness.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 19th, 2017 at 11:50:22 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Post positions:

10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER

I think I literally forgot Hence was in the race. Was thinking Cloud Computing was 3, didn't realize he was 2. Hope I didn't write them down wrong, will never reverse the list again regardless. I think I've learned very little about the race past the surface, it's basically useless info.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 20th, 2017 at 12:18:18 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Quote: drf.com

BALTIMORE Always Dreaming accounts for the lowest will-pay in the daily double linking the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. A $2 wager with the Black-Eyed Susan winner, Actress, with Always Dreaming will return $68.80. All-sources handle on the two-day wager was $777,599, up 4 percent from last year.

$2 double will-pays ACTRESS (10) with:
1. Multiplier, $539.20
2. Cloud Computing, $368.80
3. Hence, $576.40
4. Always Dreaming, $68.80
5. Classic Empire, $85.20
6. Gunnevera, $300.40
7. Term of Art, $2,600.20
8. Senior Investment, $1,573.80
9. Lookin At Lee, $406.20
10. Conquest Mo Money, $309.00

10/4,5 was Matt Carouther's $2 dd pick on tvg which might have driven down odds on Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

How do these payoffs translate from to win odds? If Always Dreaming was 4/5, Gunnevera 15/1, realize it's pari-mutuel based, but the payoffs are not 19 times difference, the holds on doubles are more, seems off though.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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