FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 14th, 2017 at 6:41:20 AM permalink
What's the "original Z thing"?

I sometimes look at place and show pools, but the issue is that the computers put the bets in a second before the race goes off. IMO, the only useful application for looking at the show pools is to bet against bridge jumpers. At Mountaineer and Charles Town (where there are more bridge jumpers because of mandatory $2.20 show payout), you'll find bridge jumpers on 3/5 or 4/5 horses. Those are easy bet against opportunities.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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onenickelmiracle
May 14th, 2017 at 6:43:33 AM permalink
Royal Mo is out of the Preakness. I'm still learning toward passing and waiting until the Belmont. They were talking on TVG about all the Derby winners that have won on the lead seem to do fine in the Preakness, and it makes sense. I'll probably just box Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money in a small exacta.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 14th, 2017 at 1:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Royal Mo is out of the Preakness. I'm still learning toward passing and waiting until the Belmont. They were talking on TVG about all the Derby winners that have won on the lead seem to do fine in the Preakness, and it makes sense. I'll probably just box Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money in a small exacta.

Ha. Darn it, my process of elimination doesn't work when the horses themselves become eliminated. Lol.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
ronnief
ronnief
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onenickelmiracle
May 14th, 2017 at 1:28:50 PM permalink
Classic Empire is the horse to beat ! See the pix in winners circle. No, forget the roses, not a speck of mud on the iockeys jersey. CE has won 5 of 8 races. Wheeled in one and dumped jockey. 1st start as 3 year old, he was refusing to train and had foot injury, finished 3rd. Next race Arkansaw Derby, won despite being only second start in 2017. In the Derby he got slammed between 2 horses and knocked down at the start, Had to be urged to be 10and1/2 lengths behind at the 1/4 pole. started to rally wide in stretch, had his run interrupted when bumped and carried out, regrouped and churned on. Still beat 16 horses.
4 or 5 to 1 I hope in Preakness.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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May 15th, 2017 at 5:01:35 AM permalink
Always Dreaming is the horse to beat. Classic Empire is the one with the most qualifications to beat him.

All the horses that I would love to pick to beat Always Dreaming in the Belmont are trying to beat him in the Preakness. I wish they would all wait, let AD win by 15 lengths, and then he would go off at 2-5 at Belmont.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 15th, 2017 at 6:10:34 AM permalink
Quote: ronnief

Classic Empire is the horse to beat ! See the pix in winners circle. No, forget the roses, not a speck of mud on the iockeys jersey. CE has won 5 of 8 races. Wheeled in one and dumped jockey. 1st start as 3 year old, he was refusing to train and had foot injury, finished 3rd. Next race Arkansaw Derby, won despite being only second start in 2017. In the Derby he got slammed between 2 horses and knocked down at the start, Had to be urged to be 10and1/2 lengths behind at the 1/4 pole. started to rally wide in stretch, had his run interrupted when bumped and carried out, regrouped and churned on. Still beat 16 horses.
4 or 5 to 1 I hope in Preakness.

I didn't see or hear about him as a two year old, because I wasn't following. Kind of rebelled against him, thought it was ok to count him out after his less than hoped performance this year. Kept it turned off before the Arkansas, but give him respect now. I'm always suspicious of hyped up horses, usually tend to be repelled by them. 1/5, 3/5 horses lose every day many times over, it's good not being a believer playing the inverse. He cannot be counted out.

Being knocked around in the derby was quite a handicap, and he still managed fourth. Yes, so on bad days, he'll be near the top as you pointed out. As I'm not with Always Dreaming now, but wished I had been in the derby, all I can see is negative. Still a good horse, but I don't think he'll be up for the Preakness. Will have to wait for post positions, but Ill agree Classic Empire will be the horse to beat, and Always Dreaming will be the horse everyone believes is the horse to beat. I also need to think about the other horses, but can see a boring Classic Empire/Always Dreaming exacta, but that still might pay $20-30.

Very dynamic and complicated the whole thing is, maybe like Fins rule mentioned the horses aren't waiting for the Belmont, because they sense weakness now and no need to wait. I still don't know the other horses yet, Cloud Computing is the main one on my radar though just because Matt Carouthers is in love with the horse, you can tell when it's mentioned in front of him. It's all too complex and expensive attempting to hit a trifecta for me. I like Conquest Mo Money, could stick him in front of the top 2, that's about as complicated as I can see. Still need posts yet again. I'll have to think about it, watch these races over, rereading the thread.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 17th, 2017 at 2:06:44 AM permalink
Royal Mo not only not racing in Preakness, he is retiring due to an injury received in a workout. Pletcher seems more relaxed, maybe the rain made him nervous, hindering the plan to come early. Post positions coming this evening.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 17th, 2017 at 2:42:29 PM permalink
Post positions:

10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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May 17th, 2017 at 4:50:49 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Post positions:

10. CONQUEST MO MONEY
9. LOOKIN AT LEE
8. SENIOR INVESTMENT
7. TERM OF ART
6. GUNNEVERA
5. CLASSIC EMPIRE
4 . ALWAYS DREAMING
3 HENCE
2. CLOUD COMPUTING
1. MULTIPLIER



I am going to bet just cuz ,not that I know a thing. I will be boxing 4,5,6,and 10 for the trifecta, possibly the superfecta. Just wanted to say so ahead of time.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 17th, 2017 at 8:07:50 PM permalink
I'm afraid Gunnevera is done, being a factor. I think maybe make a stand on less winners, then fill the end with possible. Someone is being quiet about looking at Lee, popularly forgotten, but still someone is quiet about him. Lookin at Lucky did win the Preakness a few years ago. I'm so confused myself. Is Conquest Mo Money, AD, CE going to win or is it going to be a sneaky race. Multiplier isn't bred for the Preakness, but his connections think he wants distance. Cloud Computing might be a factor. Gunnevera I think is done, was afraid before the derby, wouldn't be a factor, but Mike Smith though. I dont think there is enough horse for the win.

Safer just to do wps, I'll probably do only that. Even if I learned what I could, just going to remain a guessing game to get that right. The no talent talents on tvg try telling me statistics about new shooters not fairing well, but this year is different and incomparable. Even if a new shooter doesn't win, they're likely to be in the trifecta. Main point, the sloppy track and bad starts had a lot to do with the results of the derby, doesn't translate well to the Preakness because none of that is going to happen or happen the same way.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!

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