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beachmonkey
beachmonkey
Joined: May 13, 2015
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May 5th, 2016 at 7:13:05 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I find the following stats interesting:

The Total picks have had 20 winning days out of 29, 69% winning days.
The +130dogs have had 17 winning days out of 26, 65.4% winning days.
The Other Dogs have had 18 winning days out of 27, 66.7% winning days.
Favorites have had 15 winning days out of 19, 78.9% winning days.
Focus Picks have had 14 winning days out of 19, 73.7% winning days.


What are we worried about here? The info above says it all. No one is 100% correct.
65% is lowest result out of 26 days. some would cut there left nut out for results like that.
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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May 5th, 2016 at 8:57:45 AM permalink
I certainly wish I was in from the beginning of the season.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 5th, 2016 at 9:08:53 AM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

I certainly wish I was in from the beginning of the season.


I understand. It can be difficult to just jump in.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 5th, 2016 at 10:16:35 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I find the following stats interesting:

The Total picks have had 20 winning days out of 29, 69% winning days.
The +130dogs have had 17 winning days out of 26, 65.4% winning days.
The Other Dogs have had 18 winning days out of 27, 66.7% winning days.
Favorites have had 15 winning days out of 19, 78.9% winning days.
Focus Picks have had 14 winning days out of 19, 73.7% winning days.

i show for the 29 days into the season
you have bet 222 games and won 122 (lost 100) for 54.95% win rate

this includes all the games that completed

i also have the 130+ games bet at 75 and you have won 32 = 42.67%

but it is fun to watch!!
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 5th, 2016 at 10:24:09 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i show for the 29 days into the season
you have bet 222 games and won 122 (lost 100) for 54.95% win rate

this includes all the games that completed

i also have the 130+ games bet at 75 and you have won 32 = 42.67%

but it is fun to watch!!



Actually, the +130dogs have had a total of 71 picks, while winning 30 for a win rate of 42.25%. Also, you seem to like to leave out a very important factor. That is that the +130dogs that win return 154.51 per 100 wagered. So if you want to look at realistic returns then the math is 42.25% X 154.51 = 65.11%.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 5th, 2016 at 10:24:55 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i show for the 29 days into the season
you have bet 222 games and won 122 (lost 100) for 54.95% win rate

this includes all the games that completed

i also have the 130+ games bet at 75 and you have won 32 = 42.67%

but it is fun to watch!!



Also, I was referencing winning "days" in my post that you were replying to.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 5th, 2016 at 1:42:28 PM permalink
I believe ROI (Return On Investment) is generally accepted as the most appropriate metric for this kind of wagering with moneyline bets, and the one I prefer to track & use. Others apart from that can sometimes be interesting for some things, such as win % as an indication of variance (or even winning vs. losing 'days' as an indication of the size of someone's bar tab and antacid consumption throughout a 162 game season). But I think ROI fundamentally gets to what the real point of it is.

Of course with moneyline/odds bets one could 'win most' of them and lose a fortune. Or 'lose most of the time' and get a lot richer doing it. It depends. On ROI. This is a very healthy looking ROI at this early point this season.

There are some things that have been unusual in MLB so far, only a month into the season. Things such as the size and frequency of really big (for baseball) dog-favorite spreads, and home-away records. But it is very early days yet.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
Joined: May 13, 2015
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May 5th, 2016 at 6:29:06 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

I certainly wish I was in from the beginning of the season.


Better late than never. Still a long way to go yet, money to be made .
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 6th, 2016 at 6:22:34 AM permalink
05/06/16 Results:
 Diamondbacks -100
 Brewers -100
 Nationals -700
 Mariners +102
 Red Sox +100
 Padres +1190
 Rockies +118

Yesterday's results: +610
+130dogs +490
Other dogs +20
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +15,462
+130dogs +4,151 <-----They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +1,658
Favorites +1,260
Focus Picks +8,393 <-----They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 6th, 2016 at 6:42:35 AM permalink
05/06/16 Picks:
 Athletics -105
 Red Sox 107
 Dodgers 132 7X's
 Phillies 119
 Reds -130 FOCUS 7X's
 Royals 125
 Twins 118
 Astros -101 FOCUS 7X's
 Rockies 188 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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