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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 26th, 2016 at 4:28:31 AM permalink
The vets must be involved too.
Totally disgusting.
Their supposed purpose in life is to care for animals.
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 10:50:54 AM permalink
Just finished watching California Chrome cruise to victory (with a slipped saddle) in the $10 million Dubai World Cup. He is going to be one tough older horse this season. Mubtaahij ran second.

Lani won the UAE Derby in an close and exciting finish. I wonder if they will ship him over for the Derby? Frank Conversation ran last (insert milkshake joke here*).

LA Derby coming up later. Anyone playing the mandatory payout Rainbow Pick 6 @ Gulfstream today?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 5:14:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Thanks for that info Drawing Dead and ThatDonGuy. That info suggests a strategy that I never knew about.
If you had bet on a horse other than Songbird to show in that race and he does show you would get a fair payout even if Songbird
was in the money. But if Songbird was out of the money then you would get a gigantic payout. Unless I'm
still not understanding but I think I am. Just as an aside West Virginia requires a minimum $2.20 payout on any show bet.
Not that I'm planning to start a new career as a show plunger. But hey, the profit is double if your on the monster
horse. I'll pass.


Today, Aqueduct, Race #3:

Equibase result chart

I'm easily amused, so for me that was fun, and rewarding.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 8:04:50 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Today, Aqueduct, Race #3:

Equibase result chart

I'm easily amused, so for me that was fun, and rewarding.


Awesome. She ran like I had $100 to win on her. Fortunately, I did not even see this race. I love the comment line...sputtered...
----------

Another nice win for Gun Runner today even if the final time was unimpressive. He had no competition late. I am not one to blame jockeys for losing races but Mo Tom's ride was bad. Mo Tom may not have beaten Gun Runner but he has never got the chance in his last 2 races. Poor ride by C. Lanerie today. He really could have hurt himself, his mount, and many others very badly with a move like that. Lanerie owned it after the race and Amoss (trainer) was befuddled (to put it nicely) by the ride. What do we make of Mo Tom at this point? His fourth place likely gets him into the Derby gate but is he remotely good enough? I just do not know at this point. Is Mike Smith available for the mount on this deep closer?

Louisiana Derby:
Last edited by: Keeneone on Mar 26, 2016
coilman
coilman
Joined: Jan 29, 2012
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March 26th, 2016 at 10:07:06 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead



On one of his many probationary interludes between suspensions (I think it was about 15 years ago) the Santa Anita stewards had an agreement that in exchange for letting him back on the grounds he'd have to be routinely drug tested any time he was entered to compete, just like the four legged athletes under him. After one such test there was good news, and bad news, and other good news. The good news was that his urine sample contained no prohibited substances. And the bad news was that he was not the same species and sex listed in the program. The lab determined that his supposed sample of bodily fluid was that of a female horse. And the other good news was that he was in-foal (pregnant). As I recall PVal said he had no idea how such a thing could possibly have happened, a mystery to him and it must've been some kind of mix-up that wasn't his fault. The stewards were not amused.



One of the reason ONTARIO went to swabbing the mouth .... be amazed how many harness folks left the game when they knew that testing was coming out.

and here is a little write up on horse doping in Canada

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/horse-doping-case-heads-to-supreme-court-and-despite-video-evidence-a-conviction-may-not-be-straightforward
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 10:47:47 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>... I love the comment line...sputtered...

I prefer to think of it as "Miss Politeness graciously invited all the assembled guests to move ahead to the front of the line for the paycheck buffet."

Quote: Keeneone

...<SNIP>...

What do we make of Mo Tom at this point? His fourth place likely gets him into the Derby gate but is he remotely good enough? I just do not know at this point. Is Mike Smith available for the mount on this deep closer?

My opinion, he most likely will not be a deep closer at a mile and a quarter. At 10 furlongs I think he's more likely to be an "I'm spitting out the bit when you ask for run in this crowded stretch because I wanna go home now; this was supposed to be over back there and I don't feel so good." The pedigree AWD calculations for the La. Derby superfecta:

1st - Gun Runner 7.4f
2nd - Tom's Ready 7.2f
3rd - Dazzling Gem 6.9f
4th - Mo Tom 6.8f

I'll be interested to see what Beyer gives it. I'm not sure. That FG surface usually tends to be very slow, but I think the track may have been even a little bit more dull than an average day. The Grade 2 New Orleans Hcp for older experienced stakes runners at the same 9 furlong distance looked likely to produce something in the upper 90's or so, perhaps 100-ish, from the likes of Eagle, Majestic Harbor, and International Star (who won the Louisiana Derby a year ago). The N'awlins Hcp was run exactly (down to the hundredth of a second) one second faster than this Grade 2 for 3 year-olds, by a 20/1 shot with a feather on his back kicking away from the big boys. Hmmm. Could be fish or fowl.

[EDIT: Housekeeping remark deleted, drippy faucet fixed.]
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 26, 2016
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 11:42:44 PM permalink
Link to Louisiana Derby video should be fixed now. Thanks.
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
My opinion, he most likely will not be a deep closer at a mile and a quarter. At 10 furlongs I think he's more likely to be an "I'm spitting out the bit when you ask for run in this crowded stretch because I wanna go home now; this was supposed to be over back there and I don't feel so good." The pedigree AWD calculations for the La. Derby superfecta:

1st - Gun Runner 7.4f
2nd - Tom's Ready 7.2f
3rd - Dazzling Gem 6.9f
4th - Mo Tom 6.8f
-snip-


Now that you have said Mo Tom will "spit the bit", I am much more confident in betting the house on him in the Derby. :) :) :)
As you have stated earlier, Uncle Mo is a young sire with unproven progeny. I understand why many will want to toss the LA Derby runners this year (and based on past Kentucky Derby performances out of the race), but be careful. Mo Tom has won at CD in a stakes. Gun Runner and Tom's Ready also ran well there last year. Have they grown and improved since then, we shall see...
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 11:50:31 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Now that you have said Mo Tom will "spit the bit", I am much more confident in betting the house on him in the Derby. :) :) :)

I agree. And I am totally in favor of betting your house on him.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 26th, 2016 at 11:56:22 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I agree. And I am totally in favor of betting your house on him.


Do you think William Hill will allow me to bet my travel trailer on him?

Seriously, the 6 weeks off in between the Louisiana Derby and the big race is one issue. Maybe it is too long to be properly trained up...
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 27th, 2016 at 12:20:00 AM permalink
How spiffy is your travel trailer? William Hill once froze my account for a little while (maybe 20-30 minutes) with a message screen popping up over the app informing me that my request to book a wager was being reviewed for supervisory approval before I could continue to use their services. It was a future book wager for < $100 (don't remember on what, maybe baseball Pennant or Championship at mid double digits). Egads. Other things being equal, I usually prefer to bet my recreational vehicles, propane accessories, hubcaps, sofa cushion change and assorted tool shed contents through Westgate and Wynn's (brand new) apps nowadays, in that order.

EDIT to add: You made me look. According to Brisnet's trainer database stats as of the close of calendar year 2015 inclusive, Amoss has a 29% win rate with a layoff >30 and <90 days, compared to his nearly identical overall rate for all runners of 30% among 979 starters. But, he's 26% in routes vs. 32% in sprints, and 28% stretching out vs. 53% (sheesh!) shortening up. Of course those are all ridiculously high compared to an average journeyman trainer, but I think those differentials still amount to a non-trivial indication of what he's best at preparing his stock to do. His win rate specifically at Churchill is noticeably less stratospheric than overall, at 19% in routes and 21% overall in a sample size of 134 starters at CD. And, those less elevated percentages at CD occurred at a track that has a significantly smaller average field size (for normal workaday race cards) than the larger average fields where he puts up higher numbers for win percentage. I don't have the stats on field sizes at hand right this moment to quantify that aspect, but I'm pretty confident of the direction even if I can't lay hands on the magnitude of the average difference right now. I can think of a variety of possible interpretations of that, some of which could relate to lilredrooster's earlier remarks on Amoss, but for me to take it any further I'd really be reaching and speculating.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Mar 27, 2016

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