ThatDonGuy
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February 8th, 2016 at 12:42:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I recall they were in a 4th and 24 inside of their red zone. I think their options were to try to get a pass interference call (which was not going to happen on Peyton Manning night), or kick it and hope for a muffed reception or a fumble recovery after the kick. Given the yardage and their field position, I think Carolina made the right call of the crummy choices available.


I would have punted as well - but I would have aimed for the sideline. They needed the two minute warning as an additional clock stoppage, but by Denver letting the ball roll, by the time a Carolina player could get to it and down it, the time had gone past 2:00, so the two minute warning happened when the clock would have stopped for the change of possession anyway; in effect, Carolina gave away a time out.
fivespot
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February 8th, 2016 at 4:57:04 PM permalink
I'm trying to wrap my head around the prop bet calculator's output for the punt props. NFL games average 45-46 points and 9.6 punts. If you plug a 46 total and -3 spread into the calculator, it gives -152 as a fair line for under 9.5 punts. It seems odd that an average game would produce fewer than average punts over 60% of the time. (Using a Poisson distribution you'd get a shade under 51%, or -104.)

I mean, I know this analysis is amazingly naive and doesn't account for asymmetrical result distributions that will lead to clumping on the under side, but... from 51% to 61% is a hell of a lot of ground to make up. I've been staring at stats for a couple of hours trying to decide if I believe it.

Wizard, did you happen to do a double-check along the lines of "for each prop, if I bet it at the calculator-suggested price for all games in my dataset, I am neither getting rich nor getting crushed"?
Wizard
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February 8th, 2016 at 5:04:47 PM permalink
The mean may be 9.5, but that doesn't mean that is the median. The median is probably higher. The program simply looks at every game since the 2000 season and scores it whether there were more or less than 9.5 punts and how it is correlated to the spread and total.

Hope that helps.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Rigondeaux
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February 8th, 2016 at 9:15:10 PM permalink
That's one I wonder about. With +115 being there and -120 being there forever, AND it sailing over, perhaps something was unaccounted for. Could also be just a poor result, obviously.

I sucked out on my last bet. Carolina 1st half points vs. total goals in the beanpot (a pair of college hockey games). Carolina managed just a touchdown, compared to a 13 point line. The first beanpot game was 5-1. But the second was 1-0. Whew!
RonC
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February 9th, 2016 at 3:50:23 AM permalink
The books seem to have done okay in the Super Bowl betting. Sure, Von Miller cost them some money over other possible MVPs, but don't cry too much for them:

"A total of $132.5 million was wagered at the state's 194 sports books on Sunday's game, according to figures released by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The books showed a win of $13.3 million for a hold percentage of 10.1."

http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/football/super-bowl/nevada-set-super-bowl-record-wagering-handle-1325-million

Some books didn't do as well as others, but overall they did just fine...
Gabes22
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February 9th, 2016 at 5:55:07 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I would have punted as well - but I would have aimed for the sideline. They needed the two minute warning as an additional clock stoppage, but by Denver letting the ball roll, by the time a Carolina player could get to it and down it, the time had gone past 2:00, so the two minute warning happened when the clock would have stopped for the change of possession anyway; in effect, Carolina gave away a time out.



I don't know if that would have helped given the time left which IIRC was 2:08. You have the snap back to the punter, the 2-3 steps of walk-up and the kick. A kick is typically between 4-5 seconds in the air and the clock doesn't stop in football until the ball lands, not when it crosses the line. Best case scenario, if everything went off without a hitch was 2:01. I personally think that is too thin of a margin of error to attempt a punt in that scenario, given the fact they needed the play to end prior to the 2:00 warning to save 40 seconds because they only had 2 timeouts.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
Wizard
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February 9th, 2016 at 6:11:18 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

That's one I wonder about. With +115 being there and -120 being there forever, AND it sailing over, perhaps something was unaccounted for. Could also be just a poor result, obviously.



Here is a table of the number of punts in every game in my database.

Punts Total Probability Distribution
0 3 0.000726 0.000726
1 4 0.000968 0.001695
2 16 0.003873 0.005568
3 65 0.015735 0.021302
4 113 0.027354 0.048656
5 229 0.055435 0.104091
6 321 0.077705 0.181796
7 386 0.093440 0.275236
8 483 0.116921 0.392157
9 483 0.116921 0.509078
10 484 0.117163 0.626241
11 401 0.097071 0.723312
12 335 0.081094 0.804406
13 250 0.060518 0.864924
14 224 0.054224 0.919148
15 145 0.035100 0.954248
16 81 0.019608 0.973856
17 37 0.008957 0.982813
18 34 0.008230 0.991043
19 17 0.004115 0.995159
20 12 0.002905 0.998063
21 5 0.001210 0.999274
22 3 0.000726 1.000000
Total 4131 1.000000


The average is 9.6272.

50.9% of games have 9 or less and 62.6% have 10 or less.

There were 15 in Super Bowl 50. Only 8.1% of NFL games in my data have had that many or more. Why were there so many, in a game with a total of 45? I don't know. Maybe it was just chance or maybe there is something I wasn't seeing. I can say that I've bet on the total punts all season long at 5 Dimes and have done quite well on that one.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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February 9th, 2016 at 10:28:23 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

The books seem to have done okay in the Super Bowl betting. Sure, Von Miller cost them some money over other possible MVPs, but don't cry too much for them:



I was really surprised to read that (miller costing the books). I would have thought the majority of money would have been on Newton.

I took the under on punts as well. Carolina's opponents averaged 4.9 punts a game this season and 3.5 for the playoffs.
Ayecarumba
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February 9th, 2016 at 12:23:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...There were 15 in Super Bowl 50. Only 8.1% of NFL games in my data have had that many or more. Why were there so many, in a game with a total of 45? I don't know. Maybe it was just chance or maybe there is something I wasn't seeing. I can say that I've bet on the total punts all season long at 5 Dimes and have done quite well on that one.



The total was only 34, not 45... or are you referring to the O/U prior to the start of the game?
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Rigondeaux
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February 9th, 2016 at 12:33:25 PM permalink
Yes, he was referring to the O/U prior to the start of the game.

Probably just a random occurrence related to the low score. If we knew the game would be so low scoring ahead of time, we could just bet that.
steeldco
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February 9th, 2016 at 2:13:29 PM permalink
I was on Carolina and am disappointed. There are several factors that were troublesome to me, including the fact that nobody knows what a catch is supposed to be. However, one thing that I thought was really dumb, strategically, was Rivera winning the coin toss and opting to kick. Really? You've got one of the better offenses in the league and although you face a fantastic defense, if you can manage to get in front then you gain a tremendous edge against a team with a quarterback that can't run and has shown a proclivity to be rattled when behind in big games, facing Carolina's awfully good defense. I just don't think it was very smart on Rivera's part.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Wizard
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February 9th, 2016 at 2:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

The total was only 34, not 45... or are you referring to the O/U prior to the start of the game?



Yes. I had no way to know the actual total would be 34 when I analyzed the props for the game.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tanko
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February 10th, 2016 at 3:42:16 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

.....However, one thing that I thought was really dumb, strategically, was Rivera winning the coin toss and opting to kick. Really? You've got one of the better offenses in the league and although you face a fantastic defense, if you can manage to get in front then you gain a tremendous edge .... .

I just don't think it was very smart on Rivera's part.



More than 80% of the opening kickoffs are deferred.

If the deferring team has possession at the end of the second quarter, they get a second straight possession at the start of the second half.

This allows the possibility to score twice and control the game before the other team gets the ball.

When you have the highest scoring Offense in the NFL, deferring is a smart decision.
Last edited by: Tanko on Feb 10, 2016
steeldco
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February 10th, 2016 at 5:34:15 AM permalink
I understand that is the common wisdom, however, in the case of these two teams, I believe that it was a monumental blunder on Rivera's part.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
HowMany
HowMany
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February 10th, 2016 at 10:28:03 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I understand that is the common wisdom, however, in the case of these two teams, I believe that it was a monumental blunder on Rivera's part.



If you "need" the opening kickoff to win your bet, I'd say you're doing it wrong.

Denver was the right side. Didn't matter who got the ball first.

As a longtime sports bettor I never said "I like team X, but if they don't get the opening kickoff, Im screwed."
steeldco
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February 10th, 2016 at 10:52:35 AM permalink
You're misinterpreting what I said. Whether or not Carolina took the opening kickoff wouldn't have effected which side I took. All I am saying is that it would have helped matters had they taken the kickoff.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Tanko
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February 10th, 2016 at 12:02:37 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

All I am saying is that it would have helped matters had they taken the kickoff.


Not against that pass rush.

Newton was sacked six times, knocked down 13 times and hurried 18 times.

He's lucky the grounds crew in Levi Stadium can't figure out how to grow grass in California.

With better traction, things would only have been worse for him.
steeldco
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February 10th, 2016 at 12:09:06 PM permalink
Tanko, you can't possibly know what would have happened had Carolina had the kickoff. They could have gone down and scored first. The mindset is entirely different trying to score first rather than trying to score after falling behind. I believe that their scoring first was more probable than their holding Denver on it's first possession. And IF they had succeeded then their probabilities of winning would not only have risen, but risen dramatically. Rivera blundered.

Edit: BTW, he blundered because he was a follower of supposed common wisdom. Sheep......and I like Rivera.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
tooncestdc
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February 11th, 2016 at 5:43:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thank you for all the kind words of encouragement.

I lost about 30% of money bet, or about $9,000. A least I didn't bet that much in total compared to other years.

It looked like there was almost a safety on Carolina's last play before the final punt. That would have really added insult to injury.



I only lost about 10% of prop bets for $2,500. But besides Denver scoring in all 4 quarters, too many field goals and too many punts, the biggest insult was that I bet lines of +175 for biggest lead under 13.5 (model says +160) and +120 for biggest lead over 14.5 (model says -102). You don't have to remind me what the final score was. The 2-pt conversion hurt me in more ways than one.
3for3
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:24:56 PM permalink
Am I the only one with a prop that is still live? I have game TDs -0.5 vs UNC NCAA tourney wins, at -150. I thought this was a great bet, since the O/U suggested 5 TDs. The Heels need to get to the R8 to beat me now, but with 5 TDs they would have needed to reach the finals...
TomG
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February 12th, 2016 at 5:52:30 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Edit: BTW, he blundered because he was a follower of supposed common wisdom. Sheep......and I like Rivera.



Wisdom (whether common or uncommon) says it is virtually meaningless in deciding which team ends up playing better ... and Denver played far better than Carolina.
steeldco
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February 12th, 2016 at 6:54:11 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Wisdom (whether common or uncommon) says it is virtually meaningless in deciding which team ends up playing better ... and Denver played far better than Carolina.



I wish that I had some stats on how often the higher ranked offensive team wins if they receive the kickoff.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
speedycrap
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:02:03 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I wish that I had some stats on how often the higher ranked offensive team wins if they receive the kickoff.

I agree. Just like a front running horse should get the lead and let other horses trying to chase. Like catch me if you can. Use your advantage wisely. but I like the result because I had $100 on Denver.
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