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Lucky1
Lucky1
Joined: Sep 15, 2015
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October 12th, 2015 at 3:02:46 PM permalink
cool, thanks. Didn't realize +1 to +2.5 was a key enough number. Good luck tonight!
Frogger
Frogger
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October 12th, 2015 at 5:29:32 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

cool, thanks. Didn't realize +1 to +2.5 was a key enough number. Good luck tonight!




I'm surprised too. Good pick. Perhaps he had an opinion and the extra points pushed it over the fence
kewlj
kewlj
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:39:23 PM permalink
WoW! what an exciting finish. Congrats again, Mr Mike.
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.
djatc
djatc
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:42:26 PM permalink
With this week producing great results for those that followed the wizards bets, my question is do people usually get heat for cashing winning tickets?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:43:10 PM permalink
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.

The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
cyberbabble
cyberbabble
Joined: Mar 24, 2013
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:43:48 PM permalink
There are reasons why he is called the Wizard
djatc
djatc
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:47:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

I hope as many of you as possible rode my coattails.

The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?



I say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
kewlj
kewlj
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October 12th, 2015 at 9:04:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


The question I ask myself at a time like this is should I be happy for the bigger win, or mad at myself for partially hedging?



Don't do that to yourself. I know you are not a professional gambler, although you certainly could be if you desired, but one lesson we professional gamblers learn early on is to not put yourself through that second guessing crap. You make the best decision you can, and you move on.

For what it's worth, I think you made the right decision. Pittsburgh clearly wasn't the better team on that field. The stats are very lopsided. A couple big plays and SD playing poorly kept Pittsburgh in the game. SD should have won by a couple scores. You wouldn't be second guessing if that had occurred. Enjoy the win...don't second guess yourself. :)
Just say no to 6:5 Blackjack, Continuous shuffle machines and Blackjack the Forum. All are Negative expected value.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 9:05:16 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I say you can't take the results of the outcome into play. How did you feel hedging before Kickoff?



I was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Lucky1
Lucky1
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October 13th, 2015 at 6:28:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was fine with it. I got good numbers on the hedge. Looking at it totally mathematically, I shouldn't have hedged, but despite what some people think, I am more than a walking calculator. I wanted to end the day with a win either way. Doing a partial hedge I think is a good way to balance maximizing expected win and expected happiness.



Nice job and well said with balancing expected happiness. Could be similar to paying off a house or car or something of that nature when depending on the interest rate the math may make sense to not pay off, but the expected happiness makes it worth it.

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