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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 12th, 2015 at 12:15:56 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

Thou shalt not hedge thy bets lest thou shall be smitten by the rod.

That rule is WRONG don't care what anyone says.

Thank god for hedging or we win less.

I say hedge for less
Hedging is good especially when you get a chance to middle if it lands on 7.

People can say they won't hedge all they want, but when you have thousands that can be locked up in cash VS a chance at double or nothing with little or no skin I'm the game that's easy to say. When someone is in that situation show me then tell me you never hedge.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 12th, 2015 at 12:23:15 AM permalink
Edit edit.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 12th, 2015 at 2:07:03 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I say hedge for less



To be honest, I'm probably going to do that.

Normally I'm not one to talk handicapping, but if it weren't for any injuries or suspensions I would put the final score

Pit 24.3
SD 22.9

I don't know how to adjust for Roethlisberger being out. Anyway, it is easier to hedge if I can justify it being a good bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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October 12th, 2015 at 7:35:50 AM permalink
You never hedge assuming an unlimited bankroll or unlimited betting opportunities I feel.

I don't see the problem in locking up profit, and assessing how much you want to leave to risk. Especially when the giants don't cover
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Lucky1
Lucky1
Joined: Sep 15, 2015
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:27:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

5 out of 5 so far! The Steelers are Monday night. Hope lots of you were riding my coattails.

Alas, the usual question, to hedge or not to hedge.

Looking some some of you might be sweating NYG -6.5 tonight. Line is at -7.5 now. I guess that didn't look so good at the time I bet but sure looks good now.

Any parlay-card betting WoV members in town? Perhaps we should get together for Monday night football to share to the experience.



WOW awesome job! Just curious, what was reason on choosing Ten +2.5?
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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October 12th, 2015 at 8:52:12 AM permalink
My approach: I will sometimes bet planning to hedge when line movements are very predictable and the outcome is less so. If I'm betting all for value on the outcome, I'll try to avoid hedging by betting smaller.

Example: NO on Hillary for the Dem. Nom was +500 at some point. I thought there was no way she would be such a massive wire to wire favorite. The media need a story with conflict. We need at least the illusion of a democratic process. Even her campaign needs the narrative of her actually beating people rather than getting the nom through money and connections. So I locked up +500 and bought out later. I'd do the same for almost any candidate who wasn't an incumbent.

If it's a straight value play, where I think my outcome can hit, I bet an amount where I'll be fine not hedging if I don't like the other side. For example, I've got LSU to win the championship at 25-1. Rather than bet an amount where I'll feel compelled to take a -ev side, I bet an amount where I'll be comfortable riding it out if they make it into the playoffs and I think that's the way to go.


On the other hand, the niners/giants just killed me.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 10:48:48 AM permalink
Quote: Lucky1

WOW awesome job! Just curious, what was reason on choosing Ten +2.5?



The market was Ten +1 at the time I bet. Line movement.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 12th, 2015 at 11:04:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

5 out of 5 so far! The Steelers are Monday night. Hope lots of you were riding my coattails.

Alas, the usual question, to hedge or not to hedge.

Looking some some of you might be sweating NYG -6.5 tonight. Line is at -7.5 now. I guess that didn't look so good at the time I bet but sure looks good now.

Any parlay-card betting WoV members in town? Perhaps we should get together for Monday night football to share to the experience.



I recommend a small (20%) hedge. That way no matter what happens you will have won enough money to treat me and GF for dinner.......
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 12th, 2015 at 1:04:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I recommend a small (20%) hedge. That way no matter what happens you will have won enough money to treat me and GF for dinner.......



I hedged 28.6%. Normally I'm a Charger fan but hope they go down in flames tonight so I don't even have to sweat it.

Tell your GF to be prepared for a trivia barrage at dinner. Some math and logic puzzles too. She hasn't seen anything yet!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 12th, 2015 at 2:14:02 PM permalink
Congratulations Wizard! Is it typical to have mostly losing weeks covered by one or two big hits each season; or is the typical season more like weekly 52% wins on the round robin covering 48% losses?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

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