FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 17th, 2015 at 3:19:23 PM permalink
I've only been closely paying attention for 6 derbies. Before, I'd just pick a horse and watch every year.

So, I'm a bad source. But... This is by far the best field in 6 derbies. Last year had some nice 3 year olds but they werent in the derby. This year they are.
Tomspur
Tomspur
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April 17th, 2015 at 3:33:14 PM permalink
Yes, in my limited participation of this great race, this is by far the best. I don't think it is very deep, for me the top 6 or 7 will strand out, the balance may be also rans. Here is my provisional top 4.

Mubtaahij
Dortmund
American pharaoh
Frosted
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 17th, 2015 at 7:21:08 PM permalink
I wasn't going to do this 'till about another 10 days hence, but...

This year I have about two and a half colts for which I expect to see an attractive risk/reward for this, two others that I think could be live enough & may offer enough of a return to include on some tickets if the price is right, and five more that I think legitimately belong here with a real shot even though I'm not interested in betting them, for a total of ten that would not surprise me at the wire if the race happens to unfold to their advantage. That's about two to three times the number that I'm usually taking seriously to some degree.

To impose some discipline in any wagering I might be tempted to do on the day, I like to make an odds line for this with my estimate of fair value. And I find the simple exercise of taking account of the entire field and making the line balance is useful in itself. I don't expect it to match the tote board or to reflect the general consensus of opinion leading to the race. And I don't expect it to stay exactly this way for me over the next 15 days, as some will show signs of being less than perfectly fit or having trouble moving over the eccentric Churchill surface while others blossom and thrive on it. Someone will also have to scratch in the last few days before the race. Always happens; inevitable part of the game.

If they were loading at the gate right now, my estimated win probability and opinion of what I'd consider to be the minimum fair value odds (not what I expect to see on the tote board):

My top tier:
17% 5/1 Carpe Diem 7.9f
15% 6/1 Materiality 7.4f
11% 9/1 Frosted 7.5f

My potential live price possibilities:
8% 12/1 Mubtaahij 8.6f
7% 13/1 Danzig Moon 7.3f

Real contenders, but ones that I still have no interest in betting on whatsoever:
9% 11/1 International Star 7.3f
8% 12/1 Dortmund 7.1f
7% 13/1 American Pharoah* 7.0f
6% 15/1 Upstart 6.9f
5% 20/1 Firing Line 6.9f

7% - - - Collective chance among ten others including El Kabeir, Itsaknockout, Mr. Z, Ocho, Stanford, etc.

Folks following this thread for a while will be familiar with what the other numbers I have next to the names are about, and part of my reasoning in arriving at these opinions will be immediately obvious in connection with that. A few of those 'x.xf' numbers above are slightly different from what someone who is very attentive may have seen in some other posts, due to some adjustments from the data I have. But none of the differences are significant or likely to be material to my or anyone's decision on this; all changes in either direction are only 0.1f adjustments.

*By the way, has anyone ever noticed that Pharaoh is spelled wrong in the name "American Pharoah?" The 'a' & 'o' are reversed. The owner, Ahmed Zayat of Zayat Stables is originally from Cairo (Egypt, not Illinois) with multiple advanced degrees from Boston University, so I guess it must be intentional.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 18th, 2015 at 10:45:38 AM permalink
One Lucky Dane off the Derby trail. He had an issue during a workout. Lost his left front shoe and had an issue with that leg.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91341/one-lucky-dane-off-derby-trail-after-workout
----------

Madefromlucky now moves into 20th place in Derby points.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 18th, 2015 at 3:19:14 PM permalink
I bet against the bridge jumpers on shared belief. Once again, should have bet more than $2 on each horse! I hope he's ok.
JW17
JW17
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April 18th, 2015 at 5:24:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I bet against the bridge jumpers on shared belief. Once again, should have bet more than $2 on each horse! I hope he's ok.



I was thinking the same thing, but instead put win money on Moreno and Vyjack, tripled my money, you did much better.

I too hope he is ok, sounds like he is.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 18th, 2015 at 10:36:07 PM permalink
6 Moreno..........16.00 12.00 23.20
9 Imperative..............41.60 71.20
5 Page McKenney................45.60

So I slave away over a stack of Racing Forms all day, and only manage to eke out a few bucks. Meanwhile someone just waltzes in and casually bets a few bucks on everything to show and walks out a few minutes later with a stack of cash...

Well done.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 19th, 2015 at 5:11:43 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

6 Moreno..........16.00 12.00 23.20
9 Imperative..............41.60 71.20
5 Page McKenney................45.60

So I slave away over a stack of Racing Forms all day, and only manage to eke out a few bucks. Meanwhile someone just waltzes in and casually bets a few bucks on everything to show and walks out a few minutes later with a stack of cash...

Well done.



You make it sound like it didn't take any thought to make the bet.

Anyway, this race taught me the lesson to never ever ever ever make a bridge jump bet.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 19th, 2015 at 6:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You make it sound like it didn't take any thought to make the bet.

Anyway, this race taught me the lesson to never ever ever ever make a bridge jump bet.

Did it? I continued my annual tradition of paying absolutely no attention whatsoever to any of the races at Charles Town, so I have no idea what I might think about any thought there may have been, if I'd thought about it. But I do sometimes enjoy seeing 'can't miss' minus pools implode into a smoldering hole in the ground, with a six figure or more bet becoming a charcoal briquette at the bottom of it.

With too much time on my hands in this twilight zone leading up to the race I've been scrutinizing the 'bubble' horses that may get into the Derby field if they get a little (likely) help from some more scratches by those with more qualifying points, those that are now #21-#24 on the points list: Keen Ice, Frammento, Bold Conquest, and The Truth Or Else. My conclusion is that none of them are likely to matter. Some years they do; this year I don't think so. All are slow, none have shown any significant tactical speed to potentially affect the pace and overall race shape for others, and those that may have stamina to get the distance (Keen Ice & Bold Conquest) do not appear capable of getting there among this company even if the race melts down in front of them – if they can find a race at a mile and a quarter that can be won in about 2:05 & change they may be in business. This is not it. So, unlike some other recent years I plan to completely ignore them, in or out. And yes, as a matter of fact, this probably is the least exciting post you've read this year, but it is what it is.

Who is going to be this year's “wiseguy horse?” Every year there just has to be a 'wiseguy' horse. One that is not among the favorites, but becomes the subject of some buzz in the last week or so before the race with chatter floating around books & some scruffy little rinky-dink tracks & OTBs about a plausible story line for why they are really the smart choice for “in-the-know” wiseguys. I don't remember any wiseguy horse actually winning the thing, but a few have run well, occasionally picking up one of the minor checks behind the winner.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 19th, 2015 at 7:51:03 PM permalink
My guess for this year's "Wiseguy horse" is Danzig Moon.

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