FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 8th, 2015 at 3:49:43 PM permalink
I think my math was wrong. It's $162 for that bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 8th, 2015 at 4:58:59 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I think I have my derby strategy. I'm going to pick 3 horses (Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot) and bet it this way. If two out of three finish 1, 2, or 3 I'll hit the trifecta. The $.50 trifecta will cost me $108 if my math is correct. Thoughts?


This is how I read your proposal: 3 tickets (.50 cent Trifecta): Total cost $162
3x2x18x.50= $54.00
3x18x2x.50= $54.00
18x3x2x.50= $54.00

-assumes a full field of 20.

*edited to correct misunderstanding.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 8th, 2015 at 5:29:01 PM permalink
Yes, but I think it should be 18, not 17, right?
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 8th, 2015 at 5:30:34 PM permalink
Because I want to win if I happen to actually get all 3 right! And I'd be hitting it 3 times if I did.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 8th, 2015 at 5:43:24 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Yes, but I think it should be 18, not 17, right?


Corrected. The total would be $162.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 8th, 2015 at 7:28:52 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

(Pharoah, Dortmund, one longshot)

Good plan; that way, at least one of us will have money on May 3rd. If the finish is like that, I'll probably be needing a loan.*

*Short term, only until May 7, 2016.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 8th, 2015 at 7:48:14 PM permalink
I've corrected an oversight in the times that I posted on the previous page.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 9th, 2015 at 11:19:24 AM permalink
Prospect Park will miss the Derby. He may have been a little sick before the SA Derby:

http://www.drf.com/news/prospect-park-miss-derby-high-white-blood-cell-count
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 9th, 2015 at 6:28:28 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Saturday April 11, 2015 - Keeneland - Lexington Stakes Grade 3 (11/16mile - 250k)
1 - Divining Rod
2 - Comfort
3 - Quimet
4 - Tiznow R J
5 - Henry Jones
6 - Fame and Power
7 - Donworth
-Divining Rod or Tiznow R J would have a chance to make the Derby if they win and earn the 10 Derby points for first place. They are long shots at this point, but they are still in the hunt.


The more I look into this race the more I like it. It may provide some small insights about the big race. A closer look at the field:

1 - Divining Rod -Tampa shipper, Stakes runner, could flatter CDiem. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Has 1 work @ Keeneland.
2 - Comfort - Fairgrounds shipper. DDead mentioned his recent sale/race history. Recent Triple Crown nominee. Layoff (2 months) is a question for me.
3 - Quimet - Gulfstream shipper. Stakes runner. Could flatter Materiality/Upstart. Returning quickly ~14 days.
4 - Tiznow R J - Stakes runner @ Sunland and Fairgrounds. Could flatter Firing Line.
5 - Henry Jones - Oaklawn shipper. Returning quickly ~10 days.
6 - Fame and Power - West coast shipper. B. Baffert trainee working bullets for this and his time for 7 furlongs @ SA is notable. Should be on the lead. Only knock would be distance?
7 - Donworth - Gulfstream shipper. Scratched @ Keeneland today* to run in this one (a positive sign IMO).

To me, this race is one (of many) reasons Keeneland is a great betting track and a difficult track to bet. Shippers come in from all over to run for big purses. And since I provided a closer look into the race I will also take a stand and select Divining Rod. Donworth is the second choice in case Divining Rod & Fame and Power hook up in a front-end speed duel.

*Keeneland race 8 today (Apr 9) was a 3yo ALW @ 11/16mile. Shaman Ghost won in a slowish time followed closely by Outlash, both where maiden breaking Gulfstream shippers.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 9th, 2015 at 6:57:22 PM permalink
A few horses have disappeared from the KD Leaderboard today:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/road

Ami's Flatter
Maftool
Tiz Shea D
Conquest Typhoon - will point towards the American Turf on Derby day.
Prospect Park - already mentioned illness.
Daredevil - already mentioned turning out.

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