Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 25th, 2015 at 9:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

So was I. I get the feeling they may have been scratching for the last addition or two to replace those that have been left by the side of the road. But, I understand he did just put in a fast workout (I don't know how hard he was pushed to do it) and McLaughlin is planning to run him in the Wood. Maybe he should pray for snow in Queens on the first Saturday in April.


Frosted may be the only Grey/Roan left competing for the Derby. I could be wrong, but the only other I can think of is Mr. Jordan. He is actually making his return to racing in the 7 furlong Tamarac Stakes @ Gulfstream 2/27 (Competitive Edge is also running in the race).

Quote: DrawingDead

I've edited the list above to include my AWD figures.


Thanks yet again. Good to see most of the new shooters are well suited (7.3+) for the Derby distance.

Quote: Tomspur

-snip-
I have already backed Mubtaahij for the Derby so i hope he can win or run 2nd to at least have a shot at the roses.....


Me too. I certainly hope all goes smoothly for him. DD's AWD on him is very impressive. On DRF he is listed as the morning line favorite @ 5/2.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 26th, 2015 at 10:05:44 AM permalink
A big high quality card card all day at Gulfstream on Saturday, as you'd expect when they close out their main meet before the top stables move their best stock to Keeneland, New York, and other venues. The Florida Derby goes as race #14 (!!!) scheduled at 3:48 Pacific, and the morning line has Upstart listed as the favorite, followed by Itsaknockout, then Materiality, Ami's Flatter, and the rest. I've appended my AWD calculation for the pedigree of each since there's a little interest in that:

1 - Ami's Flatter 8-1 (7.1f)
2 - Jack Tripp 20-1 (6.9f)
3 - Indianaughty 20-1 (6.6f)
4 - Itsaknockout 2-1 (7.5f)
5 - Quimet 20-1 20-1 (7.4f)*
6 - My Point Exactly 30-1 (7.1f)
7 - Materiality 7-2 (7.5f)
8 - Dekabrist 30-1 (7.3f)
9 - Upstart 8-5 (6.9f)

This morning line makes solid sense to me off what they've done to date, and is about what I suspect the tote board will probably look like when they go to post. But I prefer Materiality here as I think he has more potential upside for continued development to find his ceiling in both distance and class.

*And Quimet provides an outstanding example of why numbers generated to model living creatures should not be invested with the illusion of magical properties, and why I don't do things like carry it beyond one decimal place creating the illusion of more certainty & precision where none really exists. I only bothered to make the calculation for Quimet because I was posting this here. I don't give a flying fork that his pedigree comes out to an AWD of 7.4f; I wouldn't bet a Nick Zito trainee to make it to my mailbox by Tuesday if it was named Secretariat, and if Zito wins either this Derby or the Kentucky one this year it will be time for me to switch to baccarat handicapping, roulette wheel influencing, and creating a website peddling Dead's Magic Mojo Dust.

Here again are the most recent relevant races for the top contenders:

2/21, Fountain of Youth, Grade 2, 1-1/16 miles (Upstart, Itsaknockout, Ami's Flatter, Frosted & co.):


FoY "head-on" view of stretch run leading to disqualification of Upstart:


3/6, Islamorada "listed" $60k stakes, 1-1/8 miles (Materiality, Quimet, Stanford, etc.):
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 26th, 2015 at 1:19:53 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
1 - Ami's Flatter 8-1 (7.1f)
2 - Jack Tripp 20-1 (6.9f)
3 - Indianaughty 20-1 (6.6f)
4 - Itsaknockout 2-1 (7.5f)
5 - Quimet 20-1 20-1 (7.4f)*
6 - My Point Exactly 30-1 (7.1f)
7 - Materiality 7-2 (7.5f)
8 - Dekabrist 30-1 (7.3f)
9 - Upstart 8-5 (6.9f)
-snip-


The Florida Derby will finally let everyone move on from the Fountain Of Youth final time "mystery". I have one big question: How will the track play as a result of the FOY? Could a front runner steal this one if they soup up the track? On paper there is not much speed in this event. A bold front running move may provide an upset. Watching the earlier dirt races will be helpful if one wants to bet this race. With even weights in the race (122lbs), I will go with Upstart in this spot. Materiality is on bounce "watch" coming off only his second start 3 weeks ago after a big Beyer and nice race time.
----------

In other 3yo news:
Ghost Bay is running Saturday @ Laurel, so he will not be able to make the Derby. He may be one to watch for the Preakness @ Pimlico in his home state of Maryland.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 26th, 2015 at 6:56:21 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Frosted may be the only Grey/Roan left competing for the Derby. I could be wrong, but the only other I can think of is Mr. Jordan.

I have two things to say about that: Pepper Roani.

"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 26th, 2015 at 7:12:10 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I have two things to say about that: Pepper Roani.


Yes. Completely forgot about him. 2nd to Royal Son in the John B @ Turfway. He shows only one recent workout (3/24) since the race. Maybe he will go in the Blue Grass Stakes.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 26th, 2015 at 7:23:14 PM permalink
^Probably. You may have noticed from that published 5f drill that they have him working at Churchill.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 26th, 2015 at 10:40:45 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.
-snip-

Bolding mine.
I have been wondering where these 2 would show up next. I can not find any hints on the interwebs. Maybe Cyrus in the Santa Anita Derby/Arkansas Derby and Gold Shield in the Wood Memorial? Gold Shield has not raced in over 6 weeks, but does have 4 workouts. Cyrus has the foundation and breeding to compete, but needs the Derby points. We should find out soon if these 2 will be running in a big stakes race. For the last couple of days I have been trying to find the "late" arriving horse that has a realistic shot in a final prep and then the Derby. Stanford sort of fits this profile and could be a factor. There just has to be a futures listed horse out there waiting to show up with great odds right now.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 26th, 2015 at 11:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
While I'm looking through it, some of the other W.H. lines that have had some interest from me and/or others here are: Cyrus Alexander 40/1, Gold Shield 100/1, Indianaughty 100/1, Maftool 100/1, Unrivaled 100/1. And since they just now got around to taking down their 20/1 number for Texas Red, I'm declaring Jess's Dream the winner of the ridiculous sucker bet trophy; you can still have him at the amazing price of 75/1.
-snip-

Bolding mine.
I have been wondering where these 2 would show up next. I can not find any hints on the interwebs. Maybe Cyrus in the Santa Anita Derby/Arkansas Derby and Gold Shield in the Wood Memorial? Gold Shield has not raced in over 6 weeks, but does have 4 workouts. Cyrus has the foundation and breeding to compete, but needs the Derby points. We should find out soon if these 2 will be running in a big stakes race. For the last couple of days I have been trying to find the "late" arriving horse that has a realistic shot in a final prep and then the Derby. Stanford sort of fits this profile and could be a factor. There just has to be a futures listed horse out there waiting to show up with great odds right now.

If you really want a new face, here's one you could watch for: Comfort. He was purchased privately after an impressive maiden win at Fair Grounds & promptly moved from the barn of Pavel Vashchenko in New Orleans to the impoverished little Pletcher stable, and he's since had four works for The Toddster in Florida. I don't know how realistic he may or might not be in one of the big preps (which are just about the only kind still left of course) off a 1m-70y MSW win, but I understand they have recently nominated him for the Derby & 3 y/o classics. I don't know who, if anyone, might have added him in their future book. Wynn, perhaps? Should be a big price from anyone who does quote a line on him.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/eclipse-thoroughbred-partners-purchase-maiden-winner-comfort/

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9330703&registry=T

I don't know what has become of Christophe Clement's Tam O' Shanter. I think he was still being offered at 125/1 from Wm. Hill if I remember correctly. But no public works have been showing since his allowance win at Tampa on Feb. 14, so I assume he's really out of this picture.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 27th, 2015 at 12:00:20 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I agree. My Johnny Be Good had been competitive in his races up until his last. If you can look past the Tampa Bay Derby, he is a decent sort. It is interesting his connections will ship him out on what I assume is an expensive/taxing trip. Granted it is a 2 million dollar race, and if he somehow manages a 3rd place finish (or better) he may have the points (20 for 3rd place) to Run for the Roses. It seems a tall order to succeed in the UAE Derby, but we won't know until they run the race.



At the end of this Blood-Horse article on him in Dubai they've posted video of their interview with his owner:

Casners Aim to Add Chapter to Dubai Success

And listening to it, I'm of the opinion that part of the reason for taking him there is probably just that they get a thrill out of going there for it with all the big to-do that comes with their status as one of the owners involved in it. And that will probably be at least part of the real motivation for the presence of at least half the field in Louisville in five weeks, IMO.

I get 7.1f for his pedigree.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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March 27th, 2015 at 6:30:40 PM permalink
I love American Pharoah. But I don't love him this much. He's currently 3-1!

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