LoquaciousMoFW
LoquaciousMoFW
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
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March 13th, 2015 at 1:57:36 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Wynn now has a number of Derby props available.

Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby

Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650
No -850

Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190
No -220

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110

aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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March 13th, 2015 at 2:08:13 PM permalink
Thanks!
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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March 14th, 2015 at 12:28:13 AM permalink
It's been raining the last couple of days at Oaklawn Park, and it's suppose to rain tomorrow for the Rebel as well. A.P. is coming back from an injury, switching to a track he's never run before, and now he's going to have to run in mud. And, if that injury was any kind of bad, I don't know if they go 110% in the rain. He looks like he's in tremendous shape (that 1.10.40 work had a little g next to the H), so I wouldn't be surprised by a great performance. It's probably just the odds talking to me, but I'm guessing..

1. Madefromlucky
2. American Pharoah
3. The Truth or Else
4. Bold Conquest
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 14th, 2015 at 1:13:52 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

-snip-
He looks like he's in tremendous shape (that 1.10.40 work had a little g next to the H), so I wouldn't be surprised by a great performance.
-snip-


Here is the gate workout you mention (long-ish video, so you can fast forward to ~3:00 to see him load into the gate):



-He looks super in this one, and it appeared to me the workout was a bit longer than 6 furlongs (maybe a mile?). His rider seemed to let him continue on past the wire around the second turn. He will be tough (maybe impossible) to beat, good luck to all tomorrow @ Oaklawn.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 14th, 2015 at 7:38:51 AM permalink
RE: Rebel Stakes mud pedigrees

I don't care to rely on the Tomlinson numbers published in the Racing Form, so like distance figures I also determine my own mud runner tendencies from the race records of the progeny of both sides of thoroughbreds' pedigrees. In some cases they roughly track with the Form's Tomlinson figures, and in some others I find they differ quite a bit. I don't know anything about Tomlinson's methodology, so I couldn't tell you why. This is ONLY a pedigree data analysis, and does NOT take into account any of these entries' actual individual past performance on off tracks, or any relevant observations about their physical characteristics and way of going, and most importantly omits any consideration of this or any track's surface biases that can become especially severe with weather. This is just from wet track pedigree data. I actually produce a number for this for my own use, but that numerical output would be meaningless gibberish to anyone else so I've just listed them with an adjective characterizing it:

Paid Admission (excellent)
Madefromlucky (very good)
American Pharoah (good)
Sakima (good)
Bold Conquest (above average)
Allied Forces (above average)
The Truth Or Else (average)

Like I said, I'm committed to wagering all of two whole dollars on this particular event, but there you have that, for whatever anyone may want to think it is worth. Note: I find that often sticky partially drying out tracks are more significant for this sort of thing than some wet/sloppy but 'sealed' surfaces. There's no substitute for watching the earlier races carefully to see how it is playing and possibly changing.

Good luck to those putting a bit more scratch at risk on this thing than I will. In this case, I can mean that. I've already counted the two George Washington portraits as a loss, and dispensed with my grief about that.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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March 14th, 2015 at 5:23:28 PM permalink
Very impressive win after lunging coming out the gate. He now has to be very serious for the big one. Hope he pulls up sound after the start issues.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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March 14th, 2015 at 6:24:48 PM permalink
My easy pick-4 strategy backfired. Pick-4 paid $50 on a $183 bet. I had a 25-1 shot finish 2nd in leg 2 and a 12-1 finish 2nd in leg 4. Oh well.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 14th, 2015 at 6:25:38 PM permalink
Pharoah is my Derby pick. I hope he races one more time before Derby.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 14th, 2015 at 10:12:41 PM permalink
I have a slightly different opinion. Reliable old-time recipe: short field, no speed, soft pace, add water & stir lightly, learn zippo & squadoosch. Or to quote a frequent hand analysis observation of a poker player friend: "Bah, phfttt."



From the six races on the card at the distance, fractional times at 4f & 6f:

48.26 1:12.58 (250k Stakes Gr3 4+)
48.96 1:13.85 (300k Stakes Gr2 Fillies & Mares 4+)
48.00 1:14.46 (Claiming 6,250 4+)
48.77 1:14.75 (AOC40k Fillies & Mares 4+)
49.63 1:15.22 (750k Stakes Gr2 3yo - The Rebel, otherwise known as The Baffert)
50.72 1:16.34 (Maiden 3yo)

If he didn't draw off to win by daylight as the loose lone speed after his nap in 1:15 and change, he'd belong in a mule race. Three quarters in 1:151. Sheesh. After they do that, I don't care what the finish looks like, it isn't relevant to anything. If he doesn't hook something real for pace pressure in his final prep, as he hasn't in any race to date, I wouldn't bet him to get a mile and a quarter at Churchill with Even Bob & AxelWolf's money. He won't be getting away with waltzing along unmolested on a pace of > 1:15 in that, more like 1:10-1:11, a difference of about twenty to twenty-five lengths.

But, while Speedy didn't outpace bottom rung cheap claimers worth less than a decent used car or filly & mare "non-winners twice other than" today he did clearly out-foot a mediocre maiden field. The final time comparison is a lot better for the Rebel and in the right range, much more than the dwaddling pace he got away with, but under those circumstances it should be something downright spectacular. But I definitely hope he's in the gate in May, along with some others just like that.

Best of luck to those who saw it differently and feel otherwise about him for that "other" race they're putting on in seven weeks. His admission ticket is safely punched, so we'll prolly get to find out with some serious lunch money on the table! Goody!

EDIT to add: I just learned that he displaced a shoe at the start. That's a fairly big deal to me. Setting aside an opinion about whether he's a mile and a quarter horse for a moment, that counts for considerable credit for some extra native athleticism and innate competitive desire in his performance to me, regardless of whether he's a middle-distance horse or something else, since he's not responsible for his competition and the fact that the race came up paceless. I still don't take this race as a useful indicator specifically of Derby potential one way or the other, but with that context I think I can take some more general information about him from it.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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March 15th, 2015 at 6:58:51 AM permalink
That's odd that he displaced a shoe. The reason I liked him so much is that I just loved the way he ran. His stride looked perfect to me.

The race did nothing for him, other than give him a spot in the field. That's why I hope he runs again in 3-4 weeks. Maybe since he barely moved a muscle, Baffert runs him back in 3, to give him 4 weeks until the Derby.

My conclusion is that the race results didn't mean anything to me, but the horse obviously came back from his layoff fine. I don't really like any of the other serious contenders yet, so for now, Pharoah is my pick.

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