Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 3rd, 2015 at 7:54:35 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

If she wins this race she won't be pointed toward the Oaks.

For the record, I say she finishes 4th. Put me down for a SF - Pharoah / ALL / ALL / Brandi.


It seems a little early for Superfecta projections at this point. Who will be in the field? And why will she only finish in fourth?
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Friday 3/6/2015:
Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)

1 - Tradesman (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1)
2 - High Noon Rider
3 - Quimet
4 - Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - (highweight @ 121lbs)
5 - Lucky Delfino
6 - Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1)

-Pletcher has 2 runners and both are stretching out for this 2 turn race. Does the PEIC really need another Derby prospect....
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 4th, 2015 at 12:05:41 AM permalink
Quote:

finish in fourth?

Maybe Mr. Z is entered twice, so two spots on the board right behind the winner are locked up before they open the gate.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 4th, 2015 at 9:12:22 PM permalink
RE: The San Felipe

How nice, and surprising. A California Grade 2 that actually is all of that, with a deep field of ten entered which should be quite capable of what they're being asked to do. That rarely happens on that circuit anymore. The field with my AWD numbers and a few notes:

1. Lord Nelson 7.5f
2. Ocho Ocho Ocho* 7.3f
3. Dortmund 7.1f
4. The Gomper 6.9f
5. Kenjisstorm 7.0f
6. Prospect Park 7.2f
7. Bolo** 7.6f
8. Pulmarack 6.5f
9. Sir Samson 7.3f
10. Pain and Misery 6.9f

[EDIT: Corrected typos, #1 AWD & #10 name.]

Notes:

*[Tres Ochos] A little more candor than one usually gets:

Ocho Ocho Ocho set for 3-year-old debut in San Felipe (I'm not sure if the link is behind a DRF subscriber paywall):

Quote: Jay Privman @Daily Racing Form

<SNIP>

But while remaining perfect would be an ideal scenario for Ocho Ocho Ocho, his trainer, Jim Cassidy, cautioned on Wednesday that the San Felipe is a means to an end.

“He’s coming into the race fine. He’s done everything we could have done,” Cassidy said at Clocker’s Corner. “But the plan is for two races before the Derby. I don’t want to knock him out. But if he runs well, that’s okay.”

Cassidy said that recent wet weather compromised the training of Ocho Ocho Ocho coming into the San Felipe.

“I wish we didn’t have the rain. I wish I had a couple more works in him. That would be nice,” Cassidy said. “But it is what it is. The plan has been pretty close to what we wanted.”

<SNIP>


I think Cassidy just told anyone paying attention what not to do with their money this weekend.

**[Bolo] I don't know what time frame DRF uses for compiling the trainer stats printed in the Form. They have Carla Gaines at 8% going turf to dirt. I have her at 35% over a period of years with a flat bet profit.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 4th, 2015 at 9:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

RE: The San Felipe
How nice, and surprising. A California Grade 2 that actually is that, with a deep field of ten entered which should be quite capable of what they're being asked to do. That rarely happens on that circuit anymore. The field with my AWD numbers and a few notes:
1. Lord Nelson 7.6f
2. Ocho Ocho Ocho* 7.3f
3. Dortmund 7.1f
4. The Gomper 6.9f
5. Kenjisstorm 7.0f
6. Prospect Park 7.2f
7. Bolo** 7.6f
8. Pulmarack 6.5f
9. Sir Samson 7.3f
10. Pain and Misery 6.9f
-snip-


You fixed/edited Bob and John (to Pain and Misery) and I had a great joke all lined up about how great he looked in the Wood Memorial, but I digest....

I have handicapped the race a little and I see speed inside. Cassidy's Ocho³ comments plus Lord Nelson in the one hole and I believe these two will be on or near the lead early. This will set up nicely for Dortmund just off the pace and even better for Prospect Park and Bolo from the back. No Firing Line this time for Dortmund to beat.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 4th, 2015 at 9:54:25 PM permalink
More from the Department of Undigested Typos - Who's Your Daddy Division: corrected AWD for The Most Noble Lord, Viscount and Baron, The Right Honourable Vice-Admiral, Member of the Ottoman Order of the Crescent, Knight Grand Commander of the Order of St Joachim to 7.5 not 7.6.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 5th, 2015 at 9:55:58 AM permalink
Saturday 3/7/2015:

Meydan race#2 Al Bastakiya Stakes (1 3/16mile - 250k)

1 - Ajwad (ARG)
2 - Sir Fever (URU)
3 - Mubtaahij (IRE) - (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 75/1)
4 - Tashbeeh (AUS)
5 - Intenser (IRE)
6 - Quarterback(GER)
7 - High Blade (BRZ) - Non runner

Sir Fever is an undefeated (10 for 10) Uruguayan horse and is the morning line favorite. Mubtaahij is stretching out to his longest distance to date. No Maftool in this one, he is probably waiting until the UAE Derby.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 5th, 2015 at 10:36:07 PM permalink
FWIW, since I mentioned it earlier:
Quote: DrawingDead

**[Bolo] I don't know what time frame DRF uses for compiling the trainer stats printed in the Form. They have Carla Gaines at 8% going turf to dirt. I have her at 35% over a period of years with a flat bet profit.

In case it matters to someone here, I think I see the reason for the discrepancy I noted. Using DRF's Formulator database I was able to arrive at the same 8% figure by limiting the time frame to one year, and to increase the win rate for her doing this the longer I went back. My much higher figure was from a larger sample that included races for years farther back than even the maximum in DRF's Formulator.

What becomes apparent looking at it in more detail is that she doesn't do this often, least of all for the top class stock in her barn, she is much more likely to start a young horse in her barn in a common dirt maiden sprint race and then move it to the obviously intended turf, and many times it is apparent that when she has gone turf to dirt it is simply to get rid of something that didn't pan out as one of her turf runners by dumping it in a maiden claiming race. There isn't a meaningful sample for her doing so in stakes (a total of two T>D stakes) and the most notable high level turf to dirt effort I found for her was Big Bane Theory finishing 5th in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. I think either data set has issues when applied to this, and I don't think I'd give much weight to the stat in either direction for this purpose at hand on Saturday.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 6th, 2015 at 6:05:44 PM permalink
Result:
Friday 3/6/2015 - Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)
Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1) - Won.
Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - Ran second but was disqualified to last.
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Khozan has a leg issue:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90506/khozan-injured-off-kentucky-derby-trail
Another Derby Future horse is off the Trail and I lose another future ticket. He had so much potential for this year, but these things happen. Depressing way to start a great weekend of 3yo races.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 6th, 2015 at 6:10:52 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Khozan = 1 to 20.

And out: Khozan, undefeated Pletcher trainee, off Derby trail
Quote: DRF

"We've sent him to Rood & Riddle. I'm waiting for Dr. [Larry] Bramlage's opinion on Monday," said Pletcher.



Quote: Keeneone

Friday 3/6/2015:
Gulfstream Park race #3 Islamorada Handicap (1 1/8mile - 60k)

1 - Tradesman (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 100/1)
2 - High Noon Rider
3 - Quimet
4 - Stanford (Wynn 200/1, W Hill 100/1) - (highweight @ 121lbs)
5 - Lucky Delfino
6 - Materiality (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 125/1)

-Pletcher has 2 runners and both are stretching out for this 2 turn race. Does the PEIC really need another Derby prospect....

Why yes; yes it does:



So while mourning the untimely passing of my Khozan tickets, it was nice of Materiality to buy me lunch, instead of making a fool of me for sliding him onto a ten personal favorite Derby prospects list in preference to some much higher profile contenders. I don't know where Pletcher sends him now. Now he's been nine furlongs and looked like every bit of it with more in the tank, but he'll have exactly one shot to get his qualifying points along with anything he may want to teach him in a race.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 6th, 2015 at 6:39:57 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead


So while mourning the untimely passing of my Khozan tickets, it was nice of Materiality to buy me lunch, instead of making a fool of me for sliding him onto a ten personal favorite Derby prospects list in preference to some much higher profile contenders. I don't know where Pletcher sends him now. Now he's been nine furlongs and looked like every bit of it with more in the tank, but he'll have exactly one shot to get his qualifying points along with anything he may want to teach him in a race.


I think we were posting at the same time. Interestingly, Materiality is in the exact same spot Khozan was in. He needs a big race in a final prep for points before the Derby.
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We have not spoken about the Gotham Stakes yet. It looks very similar to the Jerome Stakes to me. It is El Kabeir's race to win/lose as he has the class advantage over most of them (maybe excluding Classy Class). 3 Pletcher runners entered and coupled together. I like Dontbetwithbruno the most with 3 route races under his belt and Aqueduct inner track experience. Hopefully they run tomorrow (after numerous recent cancellations) in the frigid northeast....

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